Taking a Closer Look at Ales Hemsky
By Jordan Dix
When Jim Nill signed Ales Hemsky to a 3-year, 12-million dollar contract over the summer, many thought that was a bargain price for someone with the offensive skills that Hemsky possesses. Hemsky, along with Jason Spezza, were supposed to give the Dallas Stars a dominate second line to take some of the pressure off of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. It is still incredibly early in the season and we have barely begun to scratch the surface of the talent of Ales Hemsky, however so far he has managed just one assist and Jason Spezza has been playing on the top line with Seguin and Benn. This was not the vision that Nill and Stars fans had back in July. The Stars once again look like a top-heavy team that is in need of secondary scoring, and Hemsky is the guy they will look for to contribute more often. Although the raw points stat says Ales Hemsky has one in six games, that is not indicative of what we may see from Hemsky for the rest of the season. Let’s take a closer look at Hemsky and what he has brought to the table so far.
Advanced Statistics
Advanced statistics are becoming more and more prominent in the NHL today. Many teams have hired consultants and started specific positions within their organizations for advanced statistics. Some of these advanced statistics can be helpful in predicting how a player will perform in the future and some are useful for possibly explaining why a player performed the way they did in the past. One of the things I looked at with Ales Hemsky is his quality of competition. So far this season, only four players have faced a higher quality of competition relative to their corsi rating. For those unfamiliar with corsi, it is essentially a shot-tracking metric that calculates the differential in total shots directed at the net for a specific player. That includes goals, saves, missed shots and blocked shots. So four total players in the entire league beat out Ales Hemsky in regards to the average corsi rating of the players he went straight up against. Those four players, by the way, were Vernon Fiddler, Cody Eakin, Ryan Garbutt, and Antoine Roussel. This is rather telling simply from the standpoint that Hemsky has played against some of the toughest competition in the NHL so far. It certaintly isn’t an excuse, but it also can at least be part of the explanation for his lack of production.
Linemates
This isn’t a knock on Vern Fiddler or Curtis McKenzie. They are fast, tenacious, and incredibly hard on the fore-check. Ales Hemsky is methodical, patient, and a superb play-making winger. Simply put, I do not think he fits well on a line with two players who are known for their grinding and cycling play. I’m surprised they haven’t tried him with Benn and Seguin thus far, especially considering Nill’s initial plan when signing Hemsky was to put him with the dynamic duo. I would still like to see that happen as we have already seen glimpses of Hemsky’s playmaking ability. He needs to be given a fair chance to succeed offensively and when he does I think we will see an extremely productive Ales Hemsky.
Injuries
Two injuries factor into Ales Hemsky’s lack of production in my mind. One is the injury to Val Nichuskin, who would most likely be slotted in one of the top two lines. His absence has forced coach Lindy Ruff’s hand a little bit and players had to move around the lineup. This resulted in Spezza being put with Benn and Seguin and Hemsky being left without a truly potent offensive line. Another factor may be an injury to Hemsky himself. The following is a quote from Lindy Ruff on DallasStars.com:
“Hemmer has been battling through a little bit of an injury for a few games. I thought the last couple of games maybe have been his best. He hasn’t found the back of the net, but I really believe it is going to come. If he keeps doing the right things that will come. It’s a new city, new surroundings, new coaches. That takes time. You go around the league and look at players that have switched teams. I can probably give you three or four right away, and you’ll say, ‘Man, that guy hasn’t scored yet.’ It’s not easy.”
What’s to Come
Like Ruff said, these things take time. James Neal has two points in six games with the Nashville Predators. Sam Gagner doesn’t have a point in five games with the Arizona Coyotes. Brad Richards has one point for the offensive powerhouse that is the Blackhawks. Ales Hemsky has shown in the past that he can overcome slow starts and have incredibly productive seasons. Hemsky isn’t panicking. Jim Nill and Lindy Ruff aren’t panicking. Stars fans, there is no reason for you to panic either. Ales Hemsky will produce and it is only a matter of time until he wows us with something like this. Stay tuned.