Dallas Stars’ Playoff Fate Will Be Decided in February
By Josh Clark
The Dallas Stars closed out January with a bang. But the month of February will determine whether or not they will be playing past April 8th.
We’ve officially survived the first month of 2017. It seems as though just yesterday the ball dropped and we kicked off what promised to be an eventful year in the world. Just look at how far your life has come in 31 short days.
You’re older, maybe a little bit wiser, and chances are something eventful has happened to you in the past month. Maybe you conquered a fear or challenged yourself to do something new with a resolution. Or maybe you did something that no one thought you would do.
That’s what the Dallas Stars did last night when they built just their third win streak of the season. After crushing the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3, the Stars picked up their second straight win and are now 2-0-2 on a six-game homestand that many believe will “determine the Stars’ fate.”
That’s not a half bad record, especially considering the two overtime losses were to the two best teams in the NHL and the two wins were secured in an impressive fashion against two teams who are also fighting for their playoff lives and playing just as desperately as the Stars.
Dallas Stars
All in all, it was an exciting way to cap off a January month that, just as the three before it, really didn’t clear up anything regarding the fate of the Dallas Stars’ 2016-17 season. That’s not entirely too encouraging, considering at this point last season, Stars fans were practically gearing up for the playoffs.
In October, the Stars turned in a record of 3-4-1. In November, they went 6-5-5. They closed out the 2016 year in December with a mark of 7-6-1. That all added up to a 16-15-7 record that they carried into the new and bright 2017. Everyone was hoping that with the new year would come a new Stars team.
But it didn’t. The Stars finished up with a record of 5-5-3 and are now 21-20-10 with 52 points. That leaves them just one point over the .500 mark with February in full view.
Yet even through all of this consistently inconsistent play, the Stars find themselves just one point out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. But as the season gets shorter and the opportunities at points becomes less and less, the Stars either need to shape up or ship out. So far, they have not been able to decide which side they want to embrace.
That being said, it looks like the month of February will make the decision for them. There is no more room for average months that end in a record near .500. The Dallas Stars are in the thick of the playoff push. As of Wednesday morning, the Stars sit one point out of the final wild card spot in the West, two points out of the first wild card spot, and four points out of third in the Central.
But with only 31 games remaining in the year, now is not the time to continue playing .500 hockey. That will get the Stars nowhere but to an early offseason. That’s why the month of February will be so crucial for Dallas. Their play will determine how the rest of their season pans out. This tight contest will only last for so long before teams begin to fall out of the race.
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Over the next 28 days, the Dallas Stars will play 12 different games. Seven will be played at home, while the other five will take place on the road. Their longest break will come in the second-to-last week of the month and will last five days. That extended break puts more influence on the first half of the month to see what kind of lead the Stars can build before waiting for everyone else to catch up.
At the moment, only two of the Stars’ opponents in February are below .500. The Stars will run into the Winnipeg Jets (x2), Chicago Blackhawks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, Minnesota Wild, Tampa Bay Lightning, Arizona Coyotes, Boston Bruins, and Pittsburgh Penguins throughout the jam-packed month.
That means they have four divisional games to play. Three of them are against teams that Dallas is currently fighting for a playoff spot with. The Jets are currently sitting at 52 points and the Predators rest at 56. Wins against each team could push Dallas above the two and plot them in third place in the Central. Losses could solidify their spot in dead last in the race.
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A lot rides on those games, as well as every other game in the month. The Stars will be playing six games against some of the best squads in the Eastern Conference. They have severely struggled against the East this season, posting an atrocious 5-8-4 record versus the conference.
Here are some what if’s to ponder over. If the Dallas Stars go undefeated this month, they would enter March with 76 points, giving them a serious chance at securing second place in the Central. Wouldn’t that be exciting. If the Stars don’t win a single game this month, they could very well be in 13th by the time March 1 rolls around.
Now let’s take a little more realistic route. Let’s say the Stars answer the bell and finish the month 8-4-0. That puts them at 68 points with 38 more points on the table to close out the season. That would be ideal. But let’s say Dallas goes 4-8-0. That’s only 60 points, meaning that the Stars would have to win out to finish with 96.
The estimated point value that would be good enough for a playoff spot in the West this year has leveled out around 86-90. So as you can tell, a 4-8-0 record would jeopardize the Stars’ playoff hopes unless they turned in an insanely impressive March and April. Not to mention that the Jets and Predators would be able to pick up a solid upper hand if they best the Stars.
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So you see how thin the line for error is in this month. The Dallas Stars capped off January in a big way last night, but they still have a long way to go. If they can find a way into the playoffs, then it’s an entirely new story.
How is the second month of 2017 going to treat the Stars? That’s up to them. But just know that by February 28, it will be almost crystal clear on whether or not the road to the Cup goes through Dallas this year.