Dallas Stars: The Correlation Between AHL Success And NHL Glory

The Texas Stars are fighting for their second Calder Cup Championship in the last five years. But how does AHL success correlate to the Dallas Stars? Does winning the Calder Cup foreshadow a Stanley Cup run? The answer might not be as rosy as you think.

The Texas Stars are in the Calder Cup Finals, and some Dallas Stars fans are living vicariously through the franchise’s AHL squad. And, why not? Dallas has only made the playoffs twice in the last decade. During that same span, the Texas Stars have made the Calder Cup Finals three times, winning the whole shebang in 2014.

And yet, with all the successes of the AHL squad—they’ve made the playoffs in seven of their nine years of existence—the big team up north hasn’t seen any lasting effects. Trickle-down hockeynomics hasn’t worked for the Dallas Stars.

But is this normal? What kind of returns are other NHL squads seeing on their Calder Cup runs? Has success at the AHL level portended big things for the NHL franchise?

The Research

The good news is that someone else already beat me to answering many of these questions. According to Jared Clinton of The Hockey News, (SPOILER ALERT) the answer to the latter question is an emphatic “No.” It’s a fantastic article that deserves to be scoured through by any hockey fan because it goes against conventional thinking.

Clinton’s analysis shows that of all the AHL franchises to win the Calder Cup since 2000-01, not a single corresponding NHL franchise won the Stanley Cup in following five years. In fact, only two of them reached the Stanley Cup Finals at all.

Since Clinton’s article was published nearly a year ago, it doesn’t include last year’s champion, the Grand Rapids Griffins, whose head coach is now an assistant with the Dallas Stars. (The Griffins are the AHL affiliate of the Detroit Red Wings.)

That doesn’t mean all is lost. In his article in The Hockey News, Clinton writes:

"That’s not to say the Calder Cup winning team hasn’t had its impact on the big club, and that’s especially the case in recent years. Between the Saint John Flames’ 2000-01 victory and the Chicago Wolves’ win in 2007-08, there were a few players here and there whose success at the AHL level turned into big league stardom. Jeff Carter and Carey Price stand out most, with several others, from Mike Green to Bryan Little, having considerable success in their own right."

So, I believe that while fans should most certainly get excited about the Texas Stars in the Calder Cup Finals, that excitement is better directed at the individual level.

Recognition of the Individual

Antoine Roussel has had a nice six-year run with the club, but I believe Dallas will move on from him this offseason. The Frenchman put up the worst full-season numbers of his career in 2017-18, with only 17 points in 73 games, while consistently taking costly penalties.

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Roope Hintz had 35 points in 70 games at Cedar Park and has now put up 11 points in 16 postseason games. Selected by the Stars in the 2nd round of the 2015 NHL Draft, the 21-year old Finn will almost certainly make the big club at some point next year.

Curtis McKenzie, 27, will get a shot on the roster. Averaging nearly a point-per-game for Texas this season, the former 6th round pick is a fantastic candidate to take the next step and become a 60-plus game player for the Stars. After playing in 53 games for the Stars in 2016-17, McKenzie appeared in just seven games this season. Instead, he plied his trade in Cedar Park for most of the year, racking up 48 points in 51 games. His next NHL game will be his 100th.

Taking a look at the Texas Stars Calder Cup Championship in 2014, what players have gone on to make an impact with the Dallas Stars? The big names that jump off the page are Radek Faksa, Brett Ritchie, Colton Sceviour, and Patrik Nemeth. Each of these players has gone on to become full-time NHL players.

Sceviour played two full seasons with the Dallas Stars from 2014-16, totaling 49 points. Since leaving for Florida via free agency in 2016, Sceviour has scored 48 points for the Panthers in two seasons.

Nemeth was never able to completely crack the Dallas lineup due to both injury and inconsistent play; however, he’s found a home with the Colorado Avalanche. In 2017-18 with Colorado, Nemeth appeared in a career-high 68 games, accruing 15 points and a stout plus-27 rating; however, his most significant contribution to hockey was allowing fans everywhere to see Tyler Seguin fight.

Ritchie has become a solid third-line player for Dallas, yet I feel that the Stars want to see more. He is perfectly capable of putting together a 20 goal season. It may be a matter of playing on the Stars’ third line, but Ritchie has underwhelmed offensively in his first two seasons with the Stars.

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It’s easy to look at AHL success and think it portends great things for the corresponding NHL franchise, but that’s not the case. At the same time, Dallas Stars fans should be excited about the next crop of young AHL players who will crack the lineup in the next few years.

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