Dallas Stars Will Be Challenged By Powerhouse Blues
By Josh Clark
One down, three to go. The Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues have both advanced to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where they will meet up in a battle for the ages.
It’s an interesting time for the Dallas sports community. For the first time since the year 2000, the Dallas Stars are working their way through the playoffs while the Dallas Mavericks are in the offseason.
For the past 16 years, the Mavericks have missed out on the postseason just once, while the Stars have missed out a whopping seven times, including six of the last eight years. So the American Airlines Center staff can take a long sigh of relief as they will no longer have to switch between wood surfaces and ice surfaces.
That does not mean that they will not have to keep the ice surface clean and up-to-date though, considering the Stars and Blues will spend at least two games tearing it up.
But how do these teams stack up against each other? In other words, what strengths does each have and what weaknesses does each possess that their opponent could potentially exploit? Here is a detailed look at what each team brings to the table, along with a final assessment on how I feel the series may pan out.
Offense
Dallas Stars: If you even slightly follow the NHL, you have probably heard and witnessed that the Dallas Stars own the best offense in the league. Their combination of speed and depth makes them an infuriating and almost unstoppable force when it comes to scoring goals. They averaged 3.23 goals per game in the regular season (first place among all NHL teams), netting 265 goals on the year.
The playoffs have been no different. In the first round, the Stars won the series 4-2 and averaged 3.50 goals per game, the second best among all 16 teams. They tied for the league high by scoring 21 total. Jamie Benn (4-6-10) finished with the highest number of points amongst all players, and Jason Spezza (4-5-9) tied for second. All in all, there was no lack of offensive support for the Stars in the first round.
The crazy thing is, it’s not just the top line forwards doing the damage. While Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin contributed 74 of those regular season goals, the rest of the offensive core made their mark. Names like Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp, Ales Hemsky, and even Mattias Janmark scored plenty of significant goals during the year. The Stars can hit you from multiple different angles, making them the most threatening offense in the system.
Losing Seguin for an undetermined amount of time could prove to be a costly loss for the Stars, but that remains to be seen.
Overall grade: A
St. Louis Blues: The Blues are not known for their offense, but that does not mean that it is an irrelevant part of their scheme. This past season, St. Louis boasted the 15th best offense in the league, scoring 219 total goals for an average of 2.67 per game. Vladimir Tarasenko (40-34-74) led the team in goals and points, but was the only player on roster to break 55 points.
So far in the playoffs, the Blues found a way to slip by the Chicago Blackhawks in seven games in the first round. They scored 19 goals for an average of 2.71 per game, good enough for eighth place of the 16 teams. Jaden Schwartz (3-4-7) leads the team throughout the playoff run so far.
Overall grade: B-
Defense
Dallas Stars: The Stars have seen significant improvements over the last year to their blue line. Adding Johnny Oduya and Stephen Johns in the offseason helped round out some of the vulnerable spots in the defensive scheme. The Stars still struggle from time to time, but can produce an effective defensive rotation on most nights that plays a shut down game while still contributing on offense.
The Stars finished 19th this year in goals against per game at 2.78 (228 on the year). It is comforting to know that even when the defense falters, the Stars can still score their way out of a bind.
But the postseason has not been gracious to the Stars’ blue line so far. After a shutout in game one, the Stars allowed 17 goals in the final five games. They had two different scenarios where they had four unanswered goals scored on them as well as three unanswered. Their inability to close out games on a dominant note could prove to be their kryptonite as they move deeper into the playoffs.
Overall grade: C
St. Louis Blues: This is where the Blues hold the strong advantage. St. Louis boasts an intimidating forecheck on their blue line, and it shows on the stat sheet. During the regular season, the Blues allowed a minute 197 goals to be scored, for an average of 2.40 goals against per game. That was good enough for fourth place in the NHL.
Once the playoffs rolled around, however, the Blues clearly struggled with the Hawks’ offensive attack. In seven games, the Blues defense sacrificed 20 goals for a 2.86 goals against average. That put them in 13th place among the 16 teams, but considering the sharp (haha good pun) offensive group they were up against, it’s understandable.
Overall grade: A-
Goaltending
Dallas Stars: The Stars decided to take a different avenue this past offseason when GM Jim Nill traded for the rights to starting veteran goaltender Antti Niemi. While keeping current starter Kari Lehtonen on board, Nill experimented during the season with a two-goalie tandem. Though there have been some kinks, the program has succeeded.
Both goalies finished the year with 25 wins, and were within one decimal place in save percentage totals (.905 and .906). The goals against average for each was kept to an acceptable rate (2.67 for Niemi and 2.76 for Lehtonen), and the duo helped carry the Stars to first place.
So far throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the tandem has gotten the job done, but not necessarily in the most effective of methods. Kari Lehtonen finished the series at 4-1-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.27 GAA. Antti Niemi, on the other hand, struggled with a record of 1-1-0 with a .870 save percentage and a 3.36 GAA. The stats were not entirely beautiful, but they were enough to push Dallas to the second round. But I can assure you those performances will not get them past the second.
Overall grade: C+
St. Louis Blues: Another likely advantage for St. Louis will be the goaltending. During the regular season, Brian Elliott (23-8-6, .930, 2.07) and Jake Allen (26-15-3, .920, 2.35) took on the majority of the games for the Blues this year, and did a wonderful job of protecting the net. So far in the playoffs, Elliott started all seven games, posting a .929 save percentage and a 2.40 goals against average.
The tandem proved to be a thorn in the side of the Stars’ offense this season, so it will be interesting to see if the Stars can overcome their stellar net-minding.
Overall grade: B+
Special Teams
Dallas Stars: With great offense comes great power play, right? The Stars turned the tide on special teams from their misfortunes a year ago and owned the fourth best power play in the league. They averaged 22.1 percent on the season and sport a scary good core on their two units.
The penalty kill is improved as well. After stumbling through the middle portion of the season, the Stars salvaged their success on the PK and finished tenth overall with an 82.3 percent average.
Throughout the playoffs, the Stars have struggled on special teams. After the first round, they have posted a 21.1 percent power play rate (ninth place) and a 75 percent penalty kill rate (twelfth).
Overall grade: B-
St. Louis Blues: The Blues once again proved to be a dominant force in the special teams department. They finished sixth throughout the NHL on the power play with a 21.5 percent success rate and third on the penalty kill with an astounding 85.2 percent rate.
But the Blues have seen a severe drop-off in the PK department so far this postseason. While they are pressing a successful 27.8 percent PP rate, their penalty kill is sitting at an ugly 68.4 percent rate. If the Stars can get hot on the power play, the Stars could find the back of the net a lot more than they originally bargained for.
Overall grade: B+
Head-To-Head
In the first round, the Dallas Stars had an advantage over Minnesota based on a good number of overtime wins. This round, the fate is flip-flopped. The St. Louis Blues finished the year 4-1-0 against the Stars, while Dallas ended the year with a 1-1-3 record. Each game was an intense and entertaining affair.
The Stars were outscored 13-10 in the five-game series, but outshot the Blues 144-143.
Dallas went 3-18 on the power play and 15-18 on the penalty kill. This obviously means that St. Louis finished with the same results on special teams.
Kari Lehtonen finished with a record of 1-0-1 against the Blues this year, including a shutout win. Antti Niemi posted a record of 0-1-2.
More stars: Stars Release Schedule For Second Round Series vs. Blues
The Dallas Stars posted a record of 1-0-1 at home and 0-1-2 on the road.
The American Airlines Center sold out both times the Blues visited, while the Scottrade Center did not sell out once in the Stars’ three visits.
Final prediction
The Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues are two of the best teams left in this playoff race. Both have a serious shot at winning the Stanley Cup this year, and the most disappointing thing that will happen this series is knowing that one of the teams will be going home two rounds too early.
Next: Stars' Keys To Getting Out Of Round Two Alive
All in all, I think the Dallas Stars can put up a serious fight against St. Louis. The Blues have had some trouble closing out games and advancing past the second round in past years, so the Stars could hold an advantage in that regard. But in the end, I simply can’t decide which team I think will take it. I will tell you this though: the series will require seven games to determine a final winner. Book it.