Dallas Stars: Why They Won’t Win Central Division

Yesterday, we put up an article listing the reasons why the Dallas Stars had a legitimate shot at the Central Division title this year. Today, I will play devil’s advocate and point out all the reasons to be cautious and speculative about the team’s success this season.

Ugh, it’s only been one day since August started? Gosh, this month is never going to end.

The month of August, as everyone knows, is the only month in the year where there are no scheduled hockey happenings. Things go slow for the NHL, and that translates out here to writers like us. That being said, we are struggling to find things to write about.

As a growing sports writer, I’ve learned that speculation is neither professional nor substantial. It’s just mindless chatter that’s used primarily to get clicks. So I am trying to steer clear of blatant speculation for this offseason and instead use specific facts to make educated theories. It may sound like speculation, but it most certainly is not.

For example, speculators would write about why Ben Bishop is one hundred percent headed to the Dallas Stars. On the other hand, I wrote about reasons of why a Bishop trade could help Dallas and what would have to happen for him to become a member of the Stars. There’s a difference, whether it’s clear or not. That’s what we’ve had to resort to at this point in the offseason.

I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at some of the reasons why the Dallas Stars are prepared to claim the Central Division title for a second straight year. The Stars have plenty of reasons to be excited about the coming season, including the fact that a Stanley Cup could be in sight.

But it is a double-edged sword, and that’s why I’ve made it a two-part series. Yesterday, I wrote an article about why the Stars have a strong shot at the Central Division title for a second straight year. Today’s article will sadly be a rather gloomy one. Today, I will look at a few of the reasons why Dallas could encounter disaster this coming season and fall far from their lofty expectations.

The special teams could fall apart

Last season, the Dallas Stars boasted relatively stable units on both the power play and penalty kill. They ended the year with the fourth best power play in the NHL at 22.1 percent and tenth best penalty kill unit at 82.3 percent. These units were extremely useful in carrying the Stars to the top of the Central Division and Western Conference.

But next season, there may be a decline. This offseason has seen many Dallas Stars enter free agency and move on to new clubs. While fans have been trying to justify the absences of all of the departed players, the fact of the matter is that a majority of them were influential in special teams.

Alex Goligoski helped out extensively on the power play in terms of moving the puck and keeping the attack stable while manning the blue line. Fans can constantly point out his flaws like turning the puck over, but he was definitely a force on the power play that will be missed.

Meanwhile, Vernon Fiddler and Colton Sceviour were assets on the penalty kill. Both were hard-nosed players who moved well in the defensive zone, getting in the shooting lanes and staying close to the puck. Fiddler also helped with winning defensive zone draws during the 5-on-4 and getting the puck out to shave some time off of the clock.

They will definitely be missed, and the Stars might even take a dip in effectiveness on the special teams.

This whole goaltending scenario

It’s difficult to judge the Dallas Stars’ goaltending tandem from 2015-16. On one hand, each goaltender logged 25 wins and their performances were strong enough to carry the Stars to the top spot in the West.

But on the other hand, each goalie combusted in their own way once the playoffs started, and they ended up being the main reason the Stars did not make it out of the second round.

However you may feel about Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi, they are back and gearing up for another season of the two-goalie system. Both veteran goaltenders went through an adjustment period of going from “full-time starter” to “50 percent of the puzzle.”  That’s a bigger transition than most people think, but the Finns figured it out relatively quickly.

Now they are up to bat for a second season, and the Dallas crease could go one of many ways. There could be a similar performance to last season, a drastic improvement in production, or a sharp turn off a cliff.

There’s not enough to go off of just yet in order to make a logical guess on how things will pan out this year. But there is reason to be hopeful and worried at the same time. These two goalies need to show more consistency not just in the regular season, but the postseason as well. Are they up for the challenge?

Gambling on the defense

The Dallas Stars did not see the success they were looking for in 2014-15. After a surprisingly successful season in 2013-14 that ended in a playoff run, the Stars had some lofty expectations for the 14-15 year. They ended up falling well short of those expectations, sitting seven points from the final playoff spot at the end of the 82-game slate.

The craziest thing about their decline was how it happened. The Stars had the second best offense in the NHL that season, so how did they falter so egregiously? Well, besides a crease that was balanced solely on the shaky Lehtonen all season, Dallas had some serious defensive troubles.

The Stars scored an average of 3.13 goals per game and surrendered an average of 3.13 goals per game that season. A hockey team usually does not stumble across success when they average the same amount of goals scored as goals given.

This was due primarily to the young lineup that they ran for the majority of the season. Besides Alex Goligoski and Trevor Daley, the Stars had four defenders in the lineup below the age of 30 that had not played more than five NHL seasons. There was obviously a necessary growth and learning period, and it turned out to be the entire 2014-15 season.

Betting on a young lineup comes as a serious gamble, and that’s what Dallas will be doing again this year. While they do have some strong veteran leadership in Dan Hamhuis and Johnny Oduya, they will need to keep an eye on the younger defenders who are still fully developing.

John Klingberg and Jordie Benn are still young but seem to have enough experience under their belt to get along. But even these two can still mess up at certain times, as we saw last season. The other spots will be taken by players like Stephen Johns and Patrik Nemeth, who still have yet to play an entire season with the Dallas club.

Things could go impressively smooth or burst into flames. But that’s what you get when you gamble on a big lineup with inexperience scattered throughout. Stay tuned.

Nashville is looking dangerous

Last season, the Stars were in a tight race for the Central Division title with the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks as the season neared its end.

This season, the Blues seem considerably weaker at first glance. The Hawks look as though they could take a step back as well. So the Stars won’t have any competition this season for the banner, right? Wrong.

must read: For Stephen Johns, This Is Just The Beginning

The Nashville Predators made a significant addition to their blue line this offseason by trading for P.K. Subban. Along with signing defenseman Yannick Weber, the Preds seem to have updated their defense. Their offense remains relatively the same, and could put together a strong performance with Ryan Johansen at the helm for the entire season.

If Pekka Rinne can put together a strong year in the crease, the Predators could have a serious shot at the division crown.

So there you have it. These are just a couple of the obvious pitfalls that could await the Dallas Stars this coming season. Will they end up playing a role in the Stars success? That’s yet to be determined. But they are definitely things that Dallas needs to keep an eye on.

Next: Why The Stars Are On Their Way To Another Division Title

The Stars 2016-17 will be one of the most interesting to follow in recent years. Will this team be able to pick up where they left off at the end of last season and stride for the Stanley Cup? Or will they fall behind early and never be able to get back on the right side of things?

August 2nd means we are still a while from these questions being answered. But that just means the intensity can build until then. 73 more days.