Dallas Stars: Blackout Dallas Predicts The 2017-18 Season
The 2017-18 NHL regular season kicked off last night, but the Dallas Stars don’t get going until tomorrow. Here is how the staff at Blackout Dallas sees the season going down for the boys in Victory Green.
Do you feel it? Can you sense it? Do you have a tingle in your bones? Yep, that tingling in your bones is in response to hockey finally being back. And tomorrow night, the Dallas Stars make their return to the ice.
Last night, the NHL kicked off with a four-game set. Eight teams started their journey to the Cup yesterday and 14 more begin tonight.
It’s game one of a long season ahead, but it’s always important to get off on the right foot. The Stars are definitely one of the teams in desperate need of a strong start this season.
Last season, Dallas met their ultimate demise. After winning the Western Conference regular season title in 2015-16 and advancing to the second round of the playoffs, the Stars choked on preseason expectations going into 2016-17. The team started out slow and fell behind in the standings. Inconsistent play led to the Stars missing the playoffs by a hefty 15 points and turning in the second worst record in franchise history.
Dallas Stars
They entered the 2017 summer with a long to-do list filled with weak points that needed to be addressed. It was quite the extensive list, but GM Jim Nill took the challenge head-on and got it done.
The Dallas Stars now enter the 2017-18 season looking significantly different. The offense looks more powerful, the defense looks much more structured and sound, and the goaltending should feature a lockdown duo. On paper, the Stars look not only like a much better team, but also like a team ready to make a strong Stanley Cup run.
But we won’t know if this is true or not until the season begins to unravel. After all, the Stars looked decent on paper last season, and we all know how that turned out. That’s why it might be best to be cautiously excited going into this coming season.
Throughout training camp and the preseason, the best players have proved themselves and the final roster has been set. All that’s left to do is swing your feet around and wait for the Friday night opener.
Every year, the staff here at Blackout Dallas likes to predict how the Dallas Stars will perform in certain areas and how the team as a whole will look in the season ahead. Last year’s predictions were just a bit off (but who would have predicted 34-37-11 anyways?).
Each staff writer focuses on a vast array of topics regarding the upcoming season and make an educated guess for each one. Our predictions are formatted into this neat little slideshow, so enjoy! Just one more day, folks.
Dallas Could Be WCF Bound This Season, If The Timing Is Right
by Tom Dorsa, Staff Writer
Greatest Strength
The Stars’ greatest strength is, to me, their depth at forward. As Ken Hitchcock has taken over the team, he has highlighted Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza, Martin Hanzal, and Radek Faksa as his four centers; no Devin Shore, no Jason Dickinson. This means the Dallas Stars plan to roll four lines that can each produce points and defensive reliability, not worrying about specific roles or deployments, and just going out there and skating the wheels off of the opposition.
With those four centermen, you get players that can all reach (and for Seguin and Spezza surely) potentially score upwards of 40 points. With a myriad of different mix-and-match options for the wingers, the Stars will have tremendous forward depth.
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Greatest Weakness
The Stars will face a major hurdle this season with their extremely tough schedule. In the NHL, each team plays the others at least twice, so a “tough schedule” isn’t what it means in other sports… until you factor in divisional play.
The Central Division is perhaps the strongest division in pro hockey (hell, maybe pro sports), with defending Western Conference champs Nashville, defending Central Division champions Chicago, the improving Minnesota Wild, and the overlooked St. Louis Blues all looking to get back into the postseason.
Not only that, but superior talents like Patrik Laine, Mark Schiefele, and Blake Wheeler have the Winnipeg Jets on the verge of contending. Having to compete against teams, players, and cities like this could spell trouble for the Dallas Stars.
Leading Goal Scorer
After netting the NHL’s third-most goals in 2015-16 Central Division conquest, Jamie Benn looks healthy and fit to perhaps score 40 goals again. His most glaring issue last season was a lack of a steady center to tag-team with (Cody Eakin absorbed most of the minutes on Benn’s line), however, the offseason move of bringing in Alexander Radulov and a resurgence of Tyler Seguin at the center spot will assist (pun intended) Benn at again reaching the top of the NHL’s goal-scoring list.
With a wicked release and unparalleled strength on the puck, Benn could propel himself to another Hart Trophy nomination.
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Blackhawk Up
Leader In Points
For the same reason I’m predicting the captain of the Dallas Stars to lead the team in goals, I have penciled in Tyler Seguin to pace the team’s point-scoring. One of only three players in the NHL to score 70 or more points in each of the past four seasons, Seguin is a model of consistency and resolve, always looking effective in all situations.
A 35-goal, 50-assist season for Seguin doesn’t seem too unlikely given his power-play deployment, his stacked line, and his previous career high of 84 points in 2013-14. Having the speed and shot to potentially net 45 goals, but the vision and responsibility to feed his teammates (Benn and Radulov most likely on his line), Seguin will lead the team in overall scoring.
Biggest Surprise Player
With an extremely impressive 16-game stint for Julius Honka in the NHL last season, coupled with three straight 30-point seasons with the Texas Stars, Honka is the man to watch and be completely and refreshingly surprised by this season.
The 21-year-old has seemingly won a roster spot out of training camp, and his projected 55-point ceiling makes him a dangerous player to overlook. Honka could have a 40-point regular season, depending on deployment and health, perhaps garnering Calder Trophy consideration. I live in Cedar Park and have been gushing over Honka for years, but if you haven’t seen much of him, you will be pleasantly surprised in his game.
Biggest Bust Player
Stephen Johns could further fall into “bust” category, but not by his own doing. Head coach Ken Hitchcock has spoken heavily about the improvement of Jamie Oleksiak and his potential for success on the right side of the defensive ice, meaning Johns could be out of the lineup one way or another.
It wasn’t long ago that injuries forced Johns to recall from the AHL, with Johns subsequently stealing a job and showing loads of three-zone promise in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, Johns has his work cut out for him in repeating that success now and could be in for a rough season.
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Blackhawk Up
Which UFA Earns A New Deal?
Kari Lehtonen, after the 2017-18, will be an unrestricted free agent. Weirdly enough, I think Kari Lehtonen enjoys a comeback season and excels in his new backup role. The goalie, who would then be 34 at his contract’s end, could take a pay cut to stay with the club.
Lehtonen has been in Dallas for awhile and likely doesn’t have the mileage to reemerge as a starter in the NHL, essentially forcing his hand in coming back to the Stars as a reliable, veteran reserve goaltender under the wing of Ben Bishop. I do feel obligated to mention Mattias Janmark, an RFA at year’s end, however, as someone who could (and will) earn a new contract with Dallas.
Final Record
The Stars, given the competition in the Central Division, are going to have to be on fire to win 50 games like they did two years prior. I’ll put them at 44-29-9, which puts them at a fair 97 points.
We do have to remember, this is a fairly young team with little experience in postseason atmosphere, and they will have some growing pains. Nevertheless, we’ll see the return of the speedy, entertaining Dallas Stars of old, with a potential playoff spot belonging to the boys in Victory Green.
Projected Central Division Standings
Nashville Predators – 108 points
Minnesota Wild – 102 points
Dallas Stars – 97 points
Winnipeg Jets – 89 points
St. Louis Blues – 87 points
Chicago Blackhawks – 82 points
Colorado Avalanche – 64 points
Do They Make The Playoffs? If So, How Far Do They Go?
Yes, the Dallas Stars return to the postseason, qualifying for the third time in five seasons. The Predators last season proved that the Western Conference playoffs are as open as any tournament format in sports, with Nashville – the bracket’s de facto #8 seed – sweeping the Blackhawks and advancing all the way to the Cup Final.
If the Dallas Stars get on a roll of some sorts (and they are historically a pretty streaky team), they could find themselves hosting Lord Stanley. I’ll tone down expectations a bit and say Western Conference Final, falling in six games to, for the sake of fun, the Jets.
This Could Be An Interesting Year For The Dallas Stars
by Micaela Hamid, Staff Writer
Greatest Strength
I am expecting (synonym, hoping) that the Dallas Stars’ greatest strength will be in cohesive playing. A lot of different factors kept them from making it big last season, and those multiple malfunctioning cogs stopped the machine in its tracks.
Now, the Stars seem to have a more balanced approach that is focusing on developing good leadership, consistent focus, and mature outlook about what it will take to win this season. I believe that well-rounded outlook will impact all the trouble-spots in Dallas’ play and will make a noticeable difference.
Dallas Stars
Greatest Weakness
In the same vein, the Stars have been known to try and ride the exhaust fumes of a good offseason right into playoffs. Sometimes they attempt to run before they’ve learned to crawl. I think their biggest downfall will be fully accepting and understanding the importance of the game-by- game mentality that Ben Bishop has cited as being so helpful to him.
Although I think the Stars’ new mentality will be a great strength, I think their learning curve could turn out to be much more realistic than they’d hoped, perhaps leading to some burn out and mentally checked-out Stars, which we’ve seen in past seasons.
Leading Goal Scorer
Not a dark horse pick for sure, but I’ll be looking for Jamie Benn to have a really explosive offensive season. Obviously, he’s a dynamic scorer whichever way you slice it, but when you take into account everything that Hitchcock has shared so far about ways in which he wants to see Tyler Seguin grow, you can’t help but translate those things into a good season for Jamie.
If Seguin make strides as this token center and playmaker that Hitchcock is gunning for, I think the primary beneficiary is going to be the captain, given the expected line combinations and the goal-scoring chemistry they’ve become known for.
Leader In Points
I think this one is between Benn and Seguin, with me leaning a bit more toward Benn. Picture a situation similar to the homestretch of the 14-15 season. This is the season the Hitchcock wants to take these Stars back to, and his plans seem to back that result up.
Benn’s productivity during that time had a lot to do with the level of leadership he had stepped up to, and it seems as though Hitch will hold him accountable to once again reach and surpass that level when it comes to points, much like he did in the 15-16 season. My guesstimate is that he’ll end the season with a career-high 90 points.
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Puck Prose
Biggest Surprise Player
I’m not sure that it can be that much of a surprise for the Stars anymore, but I’m expecting the rookies to really shine. Players like Janmark have come in during their rookie season and really stunned, solidifying their place within the organization.
I think Gemel Smith especially will be one to watch as he works to prove himself and his worth to the team. Hitchcock has admitted Smith’s noticeable talent, but also that as a player new to the NHL, he’ll need to see if he can keep up. I think that’s pretty big motivation to play to impress.
Biggest Bust Player
While not necessarily a bust, I think the Stars are going to have to wait more than one season to see a complete return in investment when it comes to Alexander Radulov. Any new player needs time to adjust to a new team and what’s more, the expectations are high when it comes to a potentially first line partnership between him, Benn, and Seguin.
Similar expectations were not quite met when the Stars brought in Patrick Sharp to complete the perfect first line, and although he and Radulov are by no means the same player, I think a similar situation could play out in terms of unmet and too-high expectations.
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Which UFA Earns A New Deal?
Considering a lot of different factors, I think Antoine Roussel will earn a new deal with Dallas this summer. He’s been a core part of the Stars and their fanbase, and even in scoring droughts, he brings an energy to the team that the Stars would not be the same without. I think management will be considering another big factor, though, which is cap space.
They’ll be looking ahead and thinking about where they can cut corners and trim costs, and Roussel would be one of the easier bets for them to make, in my opinion. Kari Lehtonen will also be a UFA this summer, but with a much higher cap hit, it would seem almost impractical to keep him around, especially if he repeats his performance over the last few seasons.
Final Record
46-24-12, 102 points
Projected Central Division Standings
Nashville Predators – 110 points
St. Louis Blues – 109 points
Dallas Stars – 102 points
Chicago Blackhawks – 99 points
Minnesota Wild – 95 points
Colorado Avalanche – 87 points
Winnipeg Jets – 76 points
Do They Make The Playoffs? If So, How Far Do They Go?
I think (synonym: hope) the Stars will make playoffs but will fell in the second round just as they did in 2015-16. Although I would hope to be wrong, I think they’ll end their postseason in round two after a solid 7 game fight.
The Dallas Stars Are In Store For A Fun Year
by Allison Scott, Staff Writer
Greatest Strength
Newness. The Dallas Stars are redefining their brand of hockey and have the chance to do so even more with a new coaching staff and roster. This group of players is just getting accustomed to one another, and they have the opportunity to grow and change their style of play throughout the year.
That means they can be essentially whomever they want. If that means focuses on an even balance of offense and defense or focusing in on one or the other, it’s entirely up to them.
Greatest Weakness
Also newness. Although the chance to rebrand is great, it’s certainly not easy. A lot can go wrong when so many aspects of a team have changed in such a short period of time, and the adjustment period will largely determine the direction of the team this year.
While it won’t necessarily be a downfall for the Stars, the likelihood that all the pieces of the puzzle fit together seamlessly is slim. There are bound to be some hiccups – it’s really just a matter of how big they end up being.
Leading Goal Scorer
Tyler Seguin. Is there really another option? This guy is the pinnacle of a skilled forward and he will continue his reign as goal-scoring aficionado for the Stars this year.
He’s gained experience in the NHL, is comfortable with the Stars and will be benefiting from a roster that has even more highly skilled guys much like himself. That combination is dangerous and will likely lead to a significant number of goals.
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Editor In Leaf
Leader In Points
Jason Spezza. He has continued to fly under the radar as he’s aged and is arguably a top forward on the team. Despite his more veteran status, No. 90 still has what it takes to make big moves in the NHL.
He’s also a team player. He was the captain of the Ottawa Senators during his long tenure up north, and he’s been an established leader in the Stars’ locker room since joining the team. That bodes well for accumulating points because he’s willing to spread the wealth.
Plus, his hockey knowledge is next level. He has a sense for the game that seems natural paired with a goal-scorer’s hands, making him the perfect points leader prediction for Dallas.
Biggest Surprise Player
Jamie Benn. While everyone knows the Stars captain as a mainstay in the line-up and grade-A player in the league, last year he struggled.
Since his Art Ross Trophy season, No. 14 has sustained a number of injuries and has tried to play through them. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been the Jamie Benn we all grew to know and love since, but this year that will change.
Benn will return to the jaw dropping, physical, offensive powerhouse he once was. He’ll take the league by storm yet again – especially under Hitchcock’s leadership. He’ll be Dallas’ surprise player because he’ll be back and better than ever.
Biggest Bust Player
Alexander Radulov. At $6.25 million a season for the next five years, Radulov has a lot to fulfill as a Star. His rather hefty price tag and full no-move clause makes him a possible bust player this season.
More from Analysis
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While Radulov is a skilled forward – they don’t give out multimillion-dollar deals to everyone – Radulov’s dedication to the NHL has come into question more than once. He’ll not only be joining the Stars during a semi-rebranding period, he’ll also be playing alongside new faces night in and night out.
Change is difficult to adjust to for most and given Radulov’s inconsistency in the NHL throughout his career, it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect him to fall short of expectations in his first year in Big D.
Which UFA Earns A New Deal?
Antoine Roussel. Nearly everyone who loves the Stars loves the French forward with grit to boot. On the flip side, nearly everyone who isn’t a fan of Dallas hates No. 21 in victory green.
Roussel is a polarizing player with a lot to offer. He’s physical and has made getting into the minds of opposing players look easy – a feat that is anything but. He also has the offensive prowess to succeed in big games.
It is that offensive upswing that makes him the perfect representation of the modern day enforcer. And it’s because of his ability to play well in both ends that the Stars will re-sign him before the season’s end. Honestly, they might do so because they just don’t want to play against him – something that would likely be a welcomed compliment to the one and only Rous.
Final Record
47-28-7, 101 points
Projected Central Division Standings
St. Louis Blues – 103 points
Dallas Stars – 101 points
Chicago Blackhawks – 101 points
Nashville Predators – 100 points
Minnesota Wild – 99 points
Winnipeg Jets – 94 points
Colorado Avalanche – 86 points
Do They Make The Playoffs? If So, How Far Do They Go?
Yes. The Dallas Stars will make it to the Western Conference Finals this year, but fall in a six-game battle.
It’s Time For The Stars To Make A BIG Comeback
by Josh Clark, Editor
Greatest Strength
The Stars’ biggest strength going into the this season has to be their completeness on offense. It’s unparalleled and it’s difficult to find an offense of a similar caliber around the league.
2015-16 was a great season for the Stars solely because of their offensive firepower. Dallas owned the fastest, strongest, and highest-powered forward group in the league. This year, they could be in for similar results.
Over the offseason, the Stars lost aging veterans Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky on offense. Both were notable pieces in the Dallas offense, but neither were backbreaking losses. In return, Dallas brought in Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal. Both are powerful forwards that addressed weak spots on the Stars’ offense and gave Dallas a more rounded appearance.
Dallas Stars
They also added forward Tyler Pitlick, a young and rising winger with a knack for scoring. Pitlick will help beef up an already confident bottom six group in Dallas. In addition, the Stars also get second-year phenom Mattias Janmark back from an injury that held him out for the 2016-17 season.
The Stars have a stacked and intimidating top-six group and a bottom-six filled with incredibly talented depth. It’s the perfect combination.
While they may not be as unbelievable as they were two seasons ago due to a new attention to defensive play, they will still be very fun to watch. Chances are they will be pretty fast too.
Greatest Weakness
Whether this factors in or not will be up to the team and players, but a potential weakness that could really bury the Stars is Ken Hitchcock’s demanding style. He’s a “give me your all” coach that doesn’t mess around. It’s a very effective strategy whenever the team buys in.
But if they don’t buy in, disaster ensues.
I don’t see this being a breaking point for the Stars, but I definitely see it playing a factor in the early part of the season. It takes time for a team to mesh with a new coach, especially one that preaches Hitchcock’s style. It may take a little while for the Dallas Stars to become comfortable in a new scheme, and that could cause for a bit of a rocky start.
But again, it solely depends on the players and how they react. If they buy in immediately, the Stars could be off and running before you can blink.
Leading Goal Scorer
As much as I want to go with Tyler Seguin, I think Jamie Benn takes the goal scoring title this year. And I don’t think he does it with a measly 26 like he put up last season.
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Broad Street Buzz
Benn had a rough year in 2016-17 (just like the rest of the team). Injuries and inconsistencies led to the Captain having his worst season in four years. Benn finished with 26 goals and 69 points. While that’s still impressive, it’s nowhere close to what we typically expect from him.
Give me Jamie Benn putting up 39 goals this year, with Seguin in a close second at 36 and Spezza holding third with 28.
Leader In Points
As much as I hate picking Jamie Benn/Tyler Seguin for all the points and goals stats, they are the most educated guess.
I’m going to have to go with Seguin for the points champion. He led the team last year with 72, and that was considered a down year for him. Seguin is known for hitting the high-70’s and even mid-80’s since arriving in Dallas in 2013, so keep an eye out for him.
He is a playmaking center known for his accurate setup passes and his howitzer of a shot. Give me Seguin putting up 85 points this year (36 G, 49 A).
Biggest Surprise Player
It’s hard not to go with Mattias Janmark on this one, but it’s already pretty likely that he is going to thrive this year (barring any injury complications).
Instead, I’m going to go with Brett Ritchie on this one. The 2017-18 year will only be Ritchie’s SECOND full year at the NHL level, but he’s already giving us plenty of reasons to be excited. The sizable power forward dominated on the wings for the Stars last year and played a big role in helping the Stars cruise along on offense.
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He finished with a career-high 16 goals and 24 points, along with an astounding +11 rating in an average of just 12:54 on the ice each game. Those are impressive numbers for third and fourth line minutes.
He also led the Stars in points in preseason play with three goals and one assist in five games played.
Ritchie is solid on the forecheck and can play a big-body role in the offensive zone while providing a scoring touch. He’s also a competent defender with his long reach and physical capabilities.
Ken Hitchcock has already sung his praises and is expecting a big year from Ritchie, so I am too. Putting him on the second line with Jason Spezza and Mattias Janmark should give Dallas an ultimately balanced and threatening middle group.
I’ve got Ritchie finishing as one of the top forwards on the Stars and putting together a tremendous “sophomore” campaign. Let’s say 20 goals and 35 points.
Biggest Bust Player
I don’t like using the word “bust” here, so instead we’re going to call it the “non-highest performing player.”
Instead of going with one player in particular, I’m going to say a few different members of the defense. And that’s not because any of them are poor players or are not skilled. It has to do with the fact that the Stars will likely carry eight defensemen for the year.
Players like Jamie Oleksiak, Julius Honka, Stephen Johns, and Greg Pateryn will constantly be shifting in and out of the lineup. Sitting for extended periods of time could have a negative effect on the development of a certain player and cause them to stumble a bit when they get back on the ice. The Stars saw this recently with Patrik Nemeth, and his inconsistent play ultimately led to him being waived and claimed by another team.
It’s not necessarily to the fault of any of these defenders, but they might see a lack in production and consistency if they are constantly bouncing in and out of the lineup.
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Editor In Leaf
Which UFA Earns A New Deal?
I have to go with Kari Lehtonen on this one. While I do believe that Antoine Roussel has a strong chance at a new contract as well, Lehtonen is set up to ride out the rest of his career in Dallas.
Lehtonen is entering his ninth season with the Dallas Stars, and has done a lot for the team. Through years of incapable backups and a lacking development of goalies, Lehtonen has been forced to play starter and consistently provide a “safety net” for Dallas. More often than not, he has succeeded.
After Lehtonen’s deal runs out this season, the Stars will likely not be looking to dig through the goalie market for a long term fix. The team drafted Jake Oettinger in the 2017 draft and will probably see him playing NHL hockey in three or four years. That being said, a short-term deal for Lehtonen that can carry him to retirement would be a win-win for both sides.
If Lehtonen succeeds at the backup role this season and provides a new element for the Stars’ goaltending group, it’d be silly to not re-sign him at a reduced rate to play the same role.
Final Record
I think the Stars finish the 2017-18 season out with a record of 45-28-9 with 99 points.
Projected Central Division Standings
Nashville Predators – 102 points
Dallas Stars – 99 points
Minnesota Wild – 96 points
St. Louis Blues – 91 points
Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Winnipeg Jets – 83 points
Colorado Avalanche – 77 points
Do They Make The Playoffs? If So, How Far Do They Go?
The Dallas Stars will make the playoffs for the third time in five seasons and face the Minnesota Wild in the first round. They’ll pass the first round and make it all the way up to the Western Conference Finals, where they will finally fall. You can’t build a kingdom in one day, and you can’t build a Stanley Cup-caliber team in one offseason.
It’ll still be a great first season of a new era and a tremendous step in the right direction towards the future.
Next: What If The Stars Start Kari Lehtonen vs. Vegas?
So that’s how we feel. It’s crazy to think about all of the ground that has been covered since April 8 that has led to all of this.
It’s about to get really fun. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.