Dallas Stars: Five Early Central Division Predictions Based on Two Weeks of Play
The Dallas Stars are just six games into the season, so it’s far too early to tell how the season will play out for the Central Division, but why let that stop us from making some early predictions?
Since the realignment, the Central has been a pretty competitive division, and the Dallas Stars will have a challenge again this year trying to make the playoffs.
So let’s take a look at how things might play out this year in the Central using just the first two weeks of the season as a guide.
Most of these things have plenty of time to change before April rolls around, and some of them will. However, even early in the season, trends start to form that can hold up for the whole year.
For example, the Stars had a rough start on the road this season, but they’ve only played two away games out of 41.
They dropped their first two road games last season too, and ended up going an unimpressive 16–20–5 on the road. Even worse, in 2016-17, they lost the first two (though one was in OT) and went 12–24–5 on the road.
There’s still time for them to change things for the season, yes, but sometimes things don’t change. They could be awful, but they absolutely could go something like 22–12–7 on the road like they did in 2015-16. These first two losses could be a minor blip on the radar by April.
However, if things don’t change radically, here are five predictions that could come true for the Central this year.
MacKinnon Will Lead in Goals, but Seguin Will Have More Shots
Nathan MacKinnon is currently leading the Central in goals with 7. That’s second in the league behind Auston Matthews and his 10 goals.
There are three Chicago players hot on his trail right now, as Alex DeBrincat has 6 and Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each have 5.
As for the Stars, Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn, and John Klingberg have 4 a piece.
Out of those players, MacKinnon is a safe bet to end the season at the top of the Central. Kane is another good choice, and there are a few players who aren’t even mentioned that could end up there by the end of the season.
For example, Tyler Seguin is only at 3 goals, but he could certainly challenge MacKinnon as well. He ended last season with 40 goals, while MacKinnon had 39.
Speaking of Seguin, he has 38 shots after six games. That’s almost double the second highest on the team, Klingberg’s 21. It’s also leading not only the division, but the league.
The Central actually holds the first three spots on the league leaderboard for shots, as Kane has 33 and Vladimir Tarasenko has 32.
Technically, Kane is shooting at a higher rate per game, since they’ve only had five games and the Stars and Blues have both played six. The Blackhawks have gone to overtime in all five games this season, but Kane still sits at the lowest total ice time out of the three.
Despite Kane still shooting at a higher rate, Seguin still looks like the favorite in this mostly meaningless race, which results in absolutely nothing for the winner. He was second in the league last year behind Alexander Ovechkin, though both Kane and Tarasenko were in the top 10.
The Central Will Have Five Teams in the Playoffs Again
The NHL divisions realigned in 2013 after the relocation of the Jets from Atlanta and the 2012-13 lockout. Before that, the Dallas Stars had been in the Pacific since the 1998-99 season, back when there were six divisions, each with five teams.
In the five seasons since then, the Central sent five teams to the playoffs three times and four teams the other two times.
This year certainly looks like it could be another year that the Central has five teams. As it sits right now, both wild card spots are held by Central teams, with the first one outside of a wild card also being in the Central.
Despite having some solid players on their rosters, there are quite a few Pacific teams that can’t seem to figure things out and make a solid postseason push, like the Oilers and Coyotes. The Golden Knights were a surprise last year, but there’s no telling if they’ll be able to repeat that unexpected success, especially after losing a few players in the offseason.
Meanwhile, the Central has been incredibly competitive and it’s hard to guess which two teams might end up sitting out. The Blues and Wild are out now, but that might not last. It’s hard to ever count the Blackhawks out entirely. The Stars and Avalanche could go either way.
Some years, there are divisions that end up with teams getting the third divisional spot because they’re just one of the least bad teams while the other bad teams sit at the bottom. The Central will probably end up being incredibly close by the end of the year with so many decent teams fighting for just a maximum of five spots. Last season, it came down to three teams for the last wildcard who were separated by three points, and it could be that way again this season.
The Blues and Wild Will Be the Ones to Miss the Playoffs
At least two Central teams have to sit out of the playoffs, and these two are currently outside of a playoff spot.
The Blues started the season 1-3-2, which is certainly not ideal for a team wanting to play in the postseason. They missed last year by just one point, breaking a six-year playoff streak. This year, they’re not looking like they’ve improved.
They made a few changes, including being the team to land Ryan O’Reilly, bringing him back to the Central in exchange for a package of players and picks. They also lost Carter Hutton to free agency, but added Tyler Bozak and Patrick Maroon. The Blues also brought David Perron back for a third stint with the team after losing him to the Golden Knights in the expansion draft.
As for Minnesota, they made the playoffs last season with 101 points, their sixth consecutive time. However, they’ve lost in the first round the past three years, including their 2015-16 loss to the Dallas Stars.
They’ve kind of ended up in that middle ground spot, where they’re good enough to make the playoffs every year, but not good enough to actually do anything once they get there. This could be their year to make a good run, but it could also be their year to miss out.
It seems more likely to be the latter, considering the fact that they’ve got a lot of older players that are going to start slowing down sometime. They actually have the oldest average age of any team in the league.
Currently, they’re tied with the Stars, but the Stars hold the tiebreaker because the Wild are at 2-2-2 as opposed to the 3-3-0 Stars. Their next games are against each other, so it will break the tie one way or another.
The Blackhawks Make the Playoffs, But Only Because of the Loser Point
Five games into the season, the Blackhawks have gone to overtime for every single game.
The loser point (the extra point teams get for an overtime loss) has certainly made the difference before between a team making the playoffs and staying home, and this already feels like it’s going to be a major factor in play for the Blackhawks.
Just last season, the Avalanche made it in over the Blues by one point, but Colorado had nine overtime losses compared to St. Louis’ six. The Blues could’ve still won the same number of games and made the playoffs, just by converting two of their 32 losses to overtime games.
There are plenty of people who don’t like the loser point (myself included), with several potential solutions thrown around. These range from simply eliminating it entirely to going to a three-point system for games.
Proposals for a three-point system usually involve a system where a regulation loss will still get you nothing, but a regulation win gives three points, while overtime wins get two points and overtime losses get one. That would mean each game is worth the same amount of points, instead of varying from two to three depending on the game, so each season would have an exact number of possible points to be divided up between teams.
For Dallas Stars fans in particular looking for a reason to dislike the loser point, it’s why the Kings made the playoffs in 2011-12 and the Stars didn’t, despite the Stars having more wins. Don’t forget the Kings won their first Cup in 2012 after that while the Stars ended up in tenth place because both the Kings and Flames had so many extra points thanks to overtime losses.
The Stars Will Face the Predators in Round One
Yes, this prediction says the Dallas Stars will make the playoffs.
It also says they’ll have a rough time getting there, making it in as a wild card.
The Predators are one of the favorites to win the Central. If they do, they face off against one of the wild card teams.
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If the season ended today, that would be either the Jets or the Stars, depending on who finished higher between the Predators and Ducks. Anaheim has more points since they’ve played an extra game, but Nashville has a higher points percentage, so let’s go with the Preds here.
Winnipeg is one of the other favorites to take the division title, but they’ve had a rougher time out of the gate so far. They’re currently in the other wild card spot with a 3-2-1 record, much worse than Nashville’s 5-1-0. There’s still more than enough time for them to challenge for the top spot, but based on these past two weeks, they’ve got some work to do before they get there.
Of course, if they do, there’s still the chance that the Predators fall to second in the Central and the Stars manage to find their way into the third place spot.
Honestly, neither the Predators nor the Jets are particularly good options for the Stars to face in the playoffs. Nashville is icing a very strong team, and despite their win over Winnipeg earlier this season, the Stars have struggled against the Jets in recent years.
Either way, if they’re facing off against one of them, at least that means they’re in the playoffs again this year.
It Might Be Time to Worry About Depth Scoring. dark. Next
There’s a lot of games left to play this season, so most of these can and probably will end up being wrong by the time April rolls around. What are your predictions for what might happen in the Central over the next few months?