Dallas Stars prospects update: How did they do in February
By Nick Lacoste
In the midst of a tough stretch of Dallas Stars hockey, losing to both Columbus and Chicago this week, it serves as great therapy to look toward the future and find some optimism among the Stars’ prospect pipeline. In this article, I will provide updates on 4 prospects playing on the Texas Stars AHL team and 4 Junior prospects that piqued my interest this month.
These players have potential, albeit to varying degrees, but this should mask the NHL team’s disappointments as we look toward the future of Dallas hockey. I will be using DobberProspects’ NHL Equivalency Calculator to add context for how these prospects’ production could translate to the NHL level. However, these NHLe numbers do under-value some prospect abilities so I’d consider these the NHL ‘production floor’ for these talented young athletes.
Dallas Stars AHL Prospects
Mavrik Bourque, 21, F
Mavrik Bourque took some time to adjust to pro hockey. It looked bleak for the first bunch of games where he was out of the play, behind the pace, and not producing for long periods of time. However, his season splits show tremendous growth and ‘catch up’ (see splits below).
I am very high on Mavrik Bourque, and I believe will be a great and low-risk hockey player with a long NHL career. He has shown his worth over the past few weeks and I can see him on the Dallas Stars’ main roster next season.
First 20 games:
2 goals + 4 assists = 6 points
(0.30 points per game, 22-point AHL pace)
Last 28 games:
8 goals + 15 assists = 23 points
(0.82 points per game, 58-point AHL pace)
Season total (48 GP):
10 goals + 19 assists = 29 points
(0.60 points per game, 42-point AHL pace)
Next Season (2023-2024): NHL – Dallas (hopefully)
Hockey Career Floor: NHL Middle-six Winger
NHLe (Points in NHL based on production): 24
Riley Tufte, 24, F
Riley Tufte has been a great complimentary piece to Texas’ successful season so far. He has produced at a fair rate and is on pace for a career-high point total this season.
He is an older prospect at 24 years of age, but considering his initial ‘long trajectory’ from being drafted out of high school in 2016, 0.51 points per game in the AHL is considerable progress for the player who initially struggled to adjust to faster-pace hockey and has had immense pressure due to his ‘first-round pick’ tag for the past 6 years.
Next Season (2023-2024): Likely AHL Top-six with NHL call-ups (long training camp)
Hockey Career Floor: NHL 4th-Line Winger
NHLe (Points in NHL based on production): 20
Riley Damiani, 22, F
Damiani has taken a step back from his fantastic AHL Rookie season. He is on pace for 32 points this AHL season, which is behind many of his teammates and this lack of production is pushing him lower and lower down the depth chart as other prospects step up.
The Dallas Stars don’t promote prospects that often without an abundance of evidence for potential NHL success (e.g. Wyatt Johnston), and I think that Damiani is slowly losing motivation and may feel he can make another NHL lineup (request a trade?).
We saw a similar debacle with Adam Mascherin a while ago who left for Europe to pursue meaningful playing time and opportunity. This season seems to have fallen apart a bit for Damiani, but the raw skills are still there and he can be impactful at full involvement. We’ll see how his NHL chances look by the start of next season — wishing the best to him.
Next Season (2023-2024): Likely AHL Top-six with NHL call-ups (long training camp)
Hockey Career Floor: NHL Bottom-six Center
NHLe (Points in NHL based on production): 20
Thomas Harley, 21, D
AHL All-Star Thomas Harley: what a great representation of Harley’s season so far. Harley has been the dynamic and mobile defenseman who activates and shoots enough like he was drafted to be. He is producing around 0.5 points per game as an AHL defenseman, while also having improved his defensive game over the past few seasons.
He is ready for the NHL and should be given such an opportunity soon before his motivation dips like Riley Damiani’s probably has. He will be a critical part of Texas’ playoff push along with Will Butcher and Co.
Next Season (2023-2024): NHL – Dallas Stars
Hockey Career Floor: NHL Bottom-pair Defenseman
NHLe (Points in NHL based on production): 19
Dallas Stars Junior Prospects
Logan Stankoven, 19, F
WHL – Kamloops Blazers
Stankoven must have been disappointed to have not made the Dallas Stars roster this fall, since he had a track record and decent training camp to warrant such an opportunity. However, playing for this season’s Memorial Cup host-to-be Kamloops in the Western Hockey League and recently joined by superstar Olen Zellweger to achieve such a goal seems like an acceptable Plan B.
If you thought 104 points in 59 games last season was impressive, Stankoven is on pace to break that number in fewer games this season. His current pace is 2.13 points per game, one of two players scoring at that rate in the WHL. The other: Connor Bedard.
Next Season (2023-2024): NHL – Dallas Stars
Hockey Career Floor: NHL Middle-six Winger
NHLe (Points in NHL based on junior production): 53 points
Francesco Arcuri, 19, F
OHL – Kitchener Rangers
Arcuri started the 2022-2023 OHL season red-hot with Kingston, leading the league for the first few months in goals prior to being traded to Kitchener. Since the trade, he has ‘rounded out’ his point totals (23 + 11 in 29 Games to 14 + 19 in 26 Games) with Kitchener. His best asset is his shot (Robertson-like). He is projected to end this season at 47 goals and 38 assists for 85 points — this is exceptional potential for a 6th-round draft pick.
Next Season (2023-2024): OHL – Kitchener Rangers (overage year – age 20)
Hockey Career Floor: AHL Top-six Scorer
NHLe (Points in NHL based on junior production): 36 points
Christian Kyrou, 19, D
OHL – Sarnia Sting
Like Arcuri, Kyrou started the 2022-2023 OHL season red-hot and was then traded. Kyrou was near the top of OHL Defenseman scoring when he was traded from Erie to Sarnia (36 points in 27 games). Since then, he only has 20 points in 23 games, which is still great, and he’s also competing for powerplay and quality ice time with Ethan Del Mastro (Chicago draft pick), Ryan Mast (Boston draft pick), and over-age player Ethan Ritchie.
Nevertheless, a strong Sarnia team should make a deep playoff run where Kyrou can have time and opportunity to showcase his offense and puck skills while also staying responsible. If he can continue to break bad habits on defense like ‘over-controlling’ the puck will earn him ice time and help his stock rise this season.
Next Season (2023-2024): OHL – Sarnia Sting (overage year – age 20)
Hockey Career Floor: NHL Bottom-pair Defenseman
NHLe (Points in NHL based on junior production): 30 points
Artyom Grushnikov, 19, D
OHL – Hamilton Bulldogs
The Dallas Stars like their OHL picks, that’s for sure. Grushnikov was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NHL Draft, one pick after Stankoven. At the time, Dallas had drafted Wyatt Johnston and Stankoven with their first few picks, so if they were not going for a ‘Best Player Available’ route, then taking a defenseman was a traditional option at that point.
Grushnikov is an interesting case study because his playstyle does not allow him to light up the scoreboard like Christian Kyrou would (15 points in 51 games). Think of Esa Lindell, who has been defensively sound for years, and has good gap control and body positioning, but gives up on pucks once they are put to ‘safety’.
Grushnikov is still a great defenseman and will fit a ‘Defensive Defenseman’ role that others cannot for both Hamilton and Dallas in the future. He has a future in pro hockey despite the lack of production. Furthermore, despite trading top-5 OHL scorer Logan Morrisson to Ottawa, Hamilton is competitive and Grushnikov will be a huge part of that team looking to upset higher-seeded teams in the OHL playoffs this year.
Next Season (2023-2024): OHL – Hamilton Bulldogs
Hockey Career Floor: NHL Bottom-four Defenseman
NHLe (Points in NHL based on production): 8 points
Summary
Overall, there are prospects in their early 20s currently playing for the Texas Stars in the AHL that deserve NHL time. There are also some younger stand-out players that will play NHL games very soon. Next year’s training camp will be more competitive than ever, and the future is bigger in Texas compared to most nearby teams.