Gulutzan has tough decisions to make with Bichsel and Lyubushkin nearing return

Stars defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin joined the team on its final road trip before the Olympic break, and fellow defenseman Lian Bichsel recently took some on-ice practice time as both rearguards work back from injury.

Lyubushkin last played Jan. 23 in Dallas’ win over the Blues. He left the game early after blocking a shot, and the Stars described him as having a lower-body injury. Bichsel hasn’t played since Nov. 30 after awkwardly crashing his legs into the boards upon taking a hit from Ottawa’s Fabian Zetterlund. Now that the two are nearing a return, Stars coach Glen Gulutzan will soon have decisions to make on the back end.

Ilya Lyubushkin and Lian Bischel have struggled for the Stars

Neither Lyubushkin nor Bichsel had played exceptionally well while injured. The former ranks last on the team with an negative-8.8% relative Corsi rating, while the latter ranks second-to-last with a negative-5.6%. For those unfamiliar, at its most basic, Corsi considers how much possession a player’s team has while he is on the ice. A negative number means the other team held possession more than 50% of the time.

In other words, when Lyubushkin and Bichsel were on the ice, other teams dominated the puck.

On paper, Lyubushkin’s eight years of experience and propensity for both checking and blocking shots would make him an easy choice to stay in the lineup. Gulutzan played the former Ducks defenseman an average of 16:10 a night. And Bichsel isn’t far removed from ranking as the top Stars prospect on the blue line. He carried a positive relative Corsi last year, so maybe his negative number this season relates to his small sample size, as Bichsel has played just 21 games.

The question becomes who falls out of the rotation when they return. Some combination of Nils Lundqvist, Kyle Capobianco, and Alexander Petrovic will likely see the press box more often than not. But they probably shouldn’t.

Kyle Capobianco, Alex Petrovic, Nils Lundqvist: Who comes out of the lineup?

Petrovic, a 33-year-old who had played only six regular-season NHL games since 2018-19 before this season, has played above his resume. He’s blocked 75 shots, thrown 81 hits, and has scored nine points in his 49 games. He ranks fifth on the team in defensive point shares, which estimates the number of points contributed by a player specifically because of his defense. 

Lundqvist is in the midst of one of his best seasons with the Stars, relatively. He still carries a negative Corsi, but it’s ahead of Lyubushkin, Bichsel, Petrovic, and even Thomas Harley, who also has taken a bit of a step back from 2024-25, but will certainly not come out of the lineup. Lundqvist has more point shares than both Lyubushkin, who has played 11 more games, and Bichsel, who has played one fewer. Lundqvist also seems to be anecdotally rated as one of the Stars fans’ most frustrating players.

The knee-jerk choice would be Capobianco. A career seventh-defenseman type, that hasn’t changed for him this season. But when he’s been on the ice, his play has been strong as he ranks behind only Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell in relative Corsi, carrying a rare positive on the Stars’ back end. He rates right alongside Lundqvist in offensive point shares, as well, though his defensive number is 0.6 lower despite playing one more game. Personally, he’s the one I’d keep if the two injured players are locks.

None of the three is, even at their best, deserving of top-four minutes and is really best as an occasional plug-in as a No. 6 defenseman. But so have been the two who are soon to return.

Lyubushkin and Bichsel may not totally deserve guaranteed spots back in the lineup when they return, whether it’s before the Olympic break or after. But they’ll probably get them more often than not, leaving Gulutzan to fit puzzle pieces together for a sixth spot that hasn’t been dynamic. Still, considering the pedigree of players with which he’s had to work, it has been better than expected.