Blackout Dallas predictions for Stars vs. Golden Knights series

The Dallas Stars begin their march to the Stanley Cup against the Vegas Golden Knights. Before the series gets underway, the Blackout Dallas crew will give our expert opinion on who will win this series. Here are our predictions for the upcoming series.
Apr 17, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger (29) and center Joe
Apr 17, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger (29) and center Joe / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Stanley Cup Playoffs return to the DFW Metroplex this year. The Stars return to the ice tonight to take on the Vegas Golden Knights. With another playoff series about to begin, Blackout Dallas gives you our expert predictions on how this series will go with the Vegas Golden Knights. Without further to do, here are our predictions for the series.

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Samantha King, Stars in 6

While Vegas has a newly healthy roster, Dallas has the depth that Vegas had last season. With their injury returns as of late, the Star's greatest strength will be a balance of playoff-level goaltending and roster pieces. With the new returns, Vegas could lack the line chemistry the Stars have worked hard to cultivate over the past several months. You can see it, especially with the third line, and how Jamie Benn has become a scoring threat since Logan Stankoven was called up from the AHL. Even the fourth line has contributed recently with some insurance goals of their own.

With the ability to score in different ways from different players and a blend of youth and veteran skill, the Dallas Stars have what it takes to knock the defending Stanley Cup Champs off their throne. It'll be a hard-fought series, but Dallas will be the victor in 6."

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Mahima Masih, Stars in 6

Here we go again. The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights are facing each other, and Mark Stone has a perfectly timed recovery for game 1, and everything’s the same. Except… it isn’t.

The 2022-2023 Dallas Stars were good, but the 2023-2024 Dallas Stars are better. They finished second in the entire league. They won the Western Conference and have a home-ice advantage in every matchup (except against the Rangers). They have forward depth unrivaled by other teams. Joe Pavelski now has two(!) tenants. Chris Tanev is massively boosting the defense, Jake Oettinger found his groove again, and I could fill an entire page with how this team improved. 

Vegas is still a challenge. These two teams have a history in the playoffs, and after losing to the team that won it all last year, the Stars have something to prove. Keeping a level head will be crucial in this series. 

The playoffs always invite a different level of play, but the Stars have shown year after year that they’re built for that. Dallas can play any style of hockey, but they need to control the game the way they have been through the latter part of the season. Keeping control will allow them to unleash their lethal offense that cycles through all four lines. 

This team has felt like a found family. They have something to prove, and they play for each other. It’s time, and the Stars have never been more equipped to face the challenges ahead.

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Jon Currey, Stars in 6

The Dallas Stars are poised for an exhilarating playoff run, and several critical factors will shape their performance. Let's delve into the intricacies of this formidable team.

Goal-Scoring Mastery

The Stars flaunt an impressive roster of eight or more 20-goal scorers, with standout players like Ottinger leading the charge. His recent form has been scintillating, boasting a 15-5 record over the last 20 games and an impressive save percentage of .907. His exceptional play could be the X-factor in the postseason.

Depth and Steadiness

Despite the season's challenges, the team has maintained remarkable consistency. As the regular season drew to a close, their synergy began to click. Evgenii Dadonov's return adds depth, and the squad's chemistry appears to have hit its stride.

The Golden Knights' Resurgence

On the opposing side, the Vegas Golden Knights are no pushovers. Core players like Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo, and William Carrier are all back in action. However, immediate chemistry might not materialize, potentially impacting their performance.

Goaltending Conundrum

The Knights face a pivotal decision in the crease. Hill, with the potential to be a solid goalie, has recently struggled, posting a 4-6 record, a 3.51 goals-against average, and an .871 save percentage. Meanwhile, Logan Thompson has been stellar, boasting an 8-2 record, a 2.14 goals-against average, and an impressive .926 save percentage. The choice of starting goalie will significantly influence the series.


Ultimately, this series hinges on depth. Which team's supporting cast will respond when it matters most? Both squads feature four or more  20-goal scorers, but the Stars' consistency and Dadonov's return give them a slight edge.

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Nick Lacoste, Stars in 6

From a statistical perspective, the Dallas Stars have almost been “unlucky” against the Vegas Golden Knights this year. Specifically, in the three games this season where Dallas went 0-1-2, they out-matched Vegas in multiple key statistical categories at 5v5 (via NaturalStatTrick):

  • Expected Goals (4.55-2.51)
  • Shot attempts (145-107)
  • Unblocked Shot Attempts (96-78)
  • Shots on Goal (63-60)
  • Scoring Chances (63-49)

The following stats are the only 5v5 metrics where Dallas has been weaker than Vegas this year in their matchups:

  • Goals (4-8)
  • High-Danger Goals (2-5)

Dallas’ High-Danger Save Percentage against Vegas has been 0.546. This means that in the three games this season, Vegas has scored on roughly half of their shots on goal from the high-danger area. Hopefully, as part of a game plan, Dallas can mitigate the High-Danger opportunities while getting timely saves. Other than pure goals, Dallas has out-classed Vegas this season. 

Unfortunately, you can have as many expected goals as you want but still need actual goals. I feel that, upon more chances against Vegas, Dallas will improve.

The more times you play a team, the larger the game sample gets, and that’s where the numbers will show that fans can trust. After 2-3 more games of Dallas vs. Vegas, we may know more about what Dallas can do against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Regardless of the new faces in the Golden Knights lineup, if the Stars can plan appropriately, push the pace in transition, and survive the board battles, then the Dallas Stars should be able to continue with their statistical edge and can win the series.

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Brian Sweet, Stars in 6

It's better to take on a defending Stanley Cup Champion in the first round than in the third round. The Stars are taking on the Vegas Golden Knights, who eliminated them in the Western Conference Finals last season. The Stars clinched the Western Conference regular season championship after forcing OT against the St. Louis Blues. Western Conference, However, the Stars have greatly improved since the finals. When you have eight 20+ goal scorers on your team, it's hard for another team to prepare for that. With the Vegas Golden Knights getting everyone back healthy in time for the playoffs, they might not be ready for how healthy the Stars are.

You will also need defense to advance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Dallas Stars went out and got Chris Tanev at the trade deadline. He's seriously helped the Stars improve in that category. He's Jake Oettinger's best friend by clearing out people in front of the net for him. It's allowed him to see where the puck is better in the Stars' zone.

The Golden Knights will be rocking a new lineup for the first time. They will likely have some issues with line chemistry out of the gate. That will play into the Stars' hands since they aren't changing all their lines. With the way the Stars have played recently and have fought against some tough teams, the Golden Knights will be catching up. That's why I have the Stars in six over the Golden Knights. It's finally time the Stars get their revenge after losing all three games during the regular season.