Before, the Dallas Stars were a strong force in the Western Conference during the 2023-2024 National Hockey League (NHL) regular season. Working through Vegas and Colorado before losing to Edmonton was a tough playoff road. Still, the Stars showed a blend of finesse and grind ability that only a few teams in the NHL could compete with, creating excitement for the future.
In reflection, the Stars likely could have won it all this year. Dallas played high-skill hockey, and embodied the ‘comeback kids’ idea throughout the regular season. However, I did not see that same energy and ability with less time and space during the playoffs, resulting in costly losses.
I wondered how statistically different the Dallas Stars were in wins vs. losses. This project aimed to search for statistical insights that could explain how the Stars fell short of their goal. I looked at Team stats, 5v5 Skater stats, and 5v5 Goalie stats from the 2023-2024 Dallas Stars playoff games, and this article will unpack findings and make inferences based on the statistical results.
There are many potential angles to cover, but this article will focus on Goaltending and Special Teams.
Goaltending
With such a successful 2023-2024 regular season for Dallas Stars skaters, there became little blame to get thrown around when things weren’t "weren't perfect." As such, the Dallas Stars goaltending became criticized due to performance fluctuations from starter Jake Oettinger. Looking at the playoff wins vs. losses data, here are some key statistics related to playoff goaltending (Jake Oettinger)
Games where Dallas won:
- Goals Against per game = 1.2
- Expected Goals Against per game = 2.0
- Goals Saved Above Expected per game = 0.8
- Total Goals Saved Above Expected = 8.2
- Save Percentage = 0.944
- Average Shot Against Distance = 46.0 ft
- Average Goal Against Distance = 10.3 ft
Games where Dallas lost:
- Goals Against per game = 1.9
- Expected Goals Against per game = 2.1
- Goals Saved Above Expected = 0.2
- Total Goals Saved Above Expected = 1.6
- Save Percentage = 0.912
- Average Shot Against Distance = 46.3 ft
- Average Goal Against Distance = 39.4 ft
Two categories stand out from the statistics above: Low-Danger Goals and Average Goal Against Distance.
Dallas was conceding significantly more shots against in games they won vs. games they lost (244-189). Knowing this, you could argue that wins were hard to come by, and Jake Oettinger might have been stealing games for Dallas in the playoffs by saving the extra shots against in games Dallas eventually won. It could also just be expected under the thinking that opponents would be fighting back in games when Dallas is leading. In contrast, opponents could coast and pressure/shoot less when they lead in games where Dallas eventually loses.
Oettinger saved ~3% more of the shot share in games where Dallas won and was four times better in saving goals above expected, meaning that Oettinger was much better in games Dallas won despite facing more shots. The save percentage is not an abnormal finding, where goalies who win are usually statistically better than goalies who lose (goalies are the ones punished for goals against). However, Oettinger was alarmingly worse in losses.
Specifically, Oettinger conceded Low-Danger goals in games Dallas lost at three times the rate than in games Dallas won (0.3 LDGA per loss vs. 0.1 LDGA per win).
Also, the average goal distance was vastly different in wins vs. losses. The average distance of all goals Oettinger gave up in wins was 10.3 feet, which is quite close to the net. This means that teams had to get deep into the Dallas zone and close to the net to have a chance to score.
Conversely, the average distance of all goals Oettinger gave up in losses was 39.4 feet, nearly four times as far. For reference, the distance from the goal line to the blue line is 64 feet, so the average distance of goals given up in games Dallas lost shows us that goals were going in from far away. Furthermore, Dallas faced fewer Low-Danger shots in games they lost (9.6 per loss, 12.5 per win), yet they still conceded low-danger goals, leading to worse advanced metrics for Oettinger in those games where Dallas lost.
Overall, Oettinger was not the direct reason Dallas lost the games they lost, but he did not demonstrate elite numbers to absolve himself from the blame.
Special Teams
While 5v5 can be the most important game situation in ice hockey because it is the most common, special teams in the playoffs can be the difference between winning and losing. Specifically, here are key special teams statistics from the Dallas Stars playoff wins vs. losses:
Games where Dallas won:
- Power Play = 6/21 (28.6%)
- Penalty Kill = 18/20 (90.0%)
Games where Dallas lost:
- Power Play = 3/24 (12.5%)
- Penalty Kill = 7/17 (41.2%)
All Games:
- Power Play = 9/45 (20.0%)
- Penalty Kill = 25/37 (67.6%)
Unfortunately, Dallas seemed to lose games because of their special teams. Despite having a solid overall Power Play (20%), Dallas only scored three Power Play goals in the nine playoff losses. Similarly, Dallas conceded ten Power Play goals in the nine playoff losses, with a PK below 50%. These are the margins that separate champions from contenders. If Dallas could have put together a more lethal and consistent Special Teams performance (easier said than done), they could have overcome teams like the Edmonton Oilers, who thrive in Special Teams/Manpower situations.
Conclusion
Overall, between Goaltending and Special Teams, there were significant statistical differences in games where Dallas won vs. games they lost in the playoffs this year. It is not expected that Dallas plays perfect & elite hockey every game, but the disparity in some statistics like Low-Danger Goals Against and Penalty Kill can offer us fans insight into what may have been reasons behind Dallas ultimately falling short of winning the Stanley Cup.
Further research could examine individual player performance fluctuations between wins and losses, and more team stats, among other ideas. If you are interested in viewing the Wins vs. Losses stats and Skater sheet, it is available at the following link:
All statistics used in this article came from NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.