5 Dallas Stars players who must bring their A-Game to pull away in the Central Division in February
The Dallas Stars are currently the hottest team in a Central Division that has struggled recently, and they can take control of the situation in February.
Sometimes, it’s not about playing a consistent game all season, as plenty of teams have played at an average to above-average pace for most of the year, only to peak at the right time. The Dallas Stars could be that team, given their recent play while the rest of the Central Division has struggled.
And if those struggles continue and the Stars keep pressing forward, they will be in the driver’s seat not only in February, but they will also own all the momentum in March and April. If Dallas wants to maximize those chances, there are five notable players on their roster whose respective performances must either grow or continue at the pace they’re at.
Joe Pavelski needs to keep playing like a player still entrenched in his prime
Joe Pavelski is one of the oldest players in the game today, having been around since the 2006-07 season. Oftentimes, when a player reaches a certain age, their productivity decreases substantially, and they become nothing more than a role player with limited ice time.
But Pavelski has 43 points in 50 contests with a 15.0 shooting percentage this season. While he’s averaging just 16:35 of ice time per game (his lowest since 2007-08), making the most of his opportunities with and without the puck is why the veteran just needs to keep himself from hitting a late-season wall.
Given his recent outings in 2021-22 and 2022-23, don’t expect Pavelski to slow down during the most important phase of the season. He’s on pace for 70 points and 31 goals, the latter of which would be his highest since 2018-19. He’s also still winning faceoffs and doing his part with sound numbers defensively, making Pavelski one of the more prolific players on this team despite his age.
It’s time for Scott Wedgewood to match his 2022-23 production
The Dallas Stars are a great hockey team, but they could reach an elite level should their goaltending maximize its productivity. Right now, the Stars have a pair of goaltenders in Jake Oettinger and Scott Wedgewood who should be playing better than what they have shown us so far.
Let’s focus on Wedgewood before we turn our attention to Oettinger. Despite being in the league for a while, Wedgewood hasn’t seen much time in the net, logging just 107 starts and 120 appearances since 2015-16.
But following some rough stretches, Wedgewood got it together in 2021-22 when he arrived in Dallas, and he parlayed that into a fine performance last season. In 2022-23, he enjoyed a 0.722 quality starts percentage to go with a 0.915 save percentage, a 2.72 GAA, a shutout, and nine wins, setting the stage for what should have been a productive 2023-24 season.
But he’s since taken a step back despite his 13-4-4 record. Wedgewood’s number of quality starts has sunk to 0.476, and his 2.98 GAA and 0.899 save percentage have also backslid. This isn’t to say Wedgewood won’t improve, but right now, he needs to step up when the Stars inevitably have games when their skaters aren’t finding the back of the net.
Jake Oettinger must return to his Vezina-contending form from 2022-23
Last season, the Dallas Stars had a Vezina contender on their hands when Jake Oettinger logged an outrageous 2.37 GAA, a 0.919 save percentage, and five shutouts, plus 37 wins in 62 appearances. Like Wedgewood, however, Oettinger has fallen on tougher times, with his GAA dropping to 2.96 while his save percentage sits at just 0.905.
To be fair, these numbers aren’t terrible, but for a young goaltender who was a Vezina contender last season, they need to be better down the stretch. It’s also not like Oettinger is facing an incredible number of shots on goal per game, with that number sitting at 29.6 before their game on Wednesday against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Like Wedgewood, Oettinger can also peak at the right time, and if he and Wedgewood both get hot, Dallas could be the toughest team in hockey. But he must revert to doing what made him such a force last season that gave opposing skaters headaches just trying to figure him out. Either way, at least one of these two needs to embark on a hot stretch from now until the regular season ends to put Dallas in a prime position for a No. 1 seed.
The Stars would keep rocking if Miro Heiskanen embarked on a tear
So far, we have talked about a pair of goaltenders and a forward, but the Stars top performing blueliner would more than benefit the team if he went on a tear over these next two months. Once again, Miro Heiskanen has been good, logging 30 points and five goals in 40 contests, putting him on pace to accumulate between 54 and 55 points.
But he’s also doing his job in the defensive zone, with his 1.7 defensive point shares ranking fifth on the team. Heiskanen has done his part in maximizing the Stars chances at 5-on-5, with the team recording a 9.0 on-ice shooting percentage when he’s on the ice to go with a Corsi For of 56.8 and a 55.3 Fenwick For.
Overall, Heiskanen makes sure the Stars are producing, but he can do more assuming he stays healthy for the next two months. One reason he finished in seventh for the Norris last season is because of his ability to turn opportunities into points, whether those opportunities begin in the defensive zone or if he makes something happen when the Stars already have the puck.
It led to him putting up 0.924 points per game last year, and an identical performance in the offensive zone during the most pressing time of the season will work wonders for Dallas.
Jason Robertson must kick his production into overdrive
Jason Robertson is the current face of the Stars franchise, but his productivity has taken a step back in 2023-24. Don’t make the mistake of thinking his performance in the offensive zone has nose-dived, as it couldn’t be further from the case. But ideally, Robertson must start eclipsing the points-per-game pace once again.
It’s something we saw from him last year when he had 109 and an impressive 46 goals and 63 assists. While he’s dipped south in both statistics this season, there is still time for him to revert to the 1.32 points-per-game mark he played at last year and start taking over games.
Considering how well the Stars have played recently, it’s time for Robertson to start playing like the serious Hart Trophy candidate he was in 2022-23. If every other player on this list keeps up their current level of play and Robertson produces like he did last season, that alone would be enough for Dallas to earn a top seed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But for the Stars to potentially run away if they stay hot, all five players listed must take their respective productivity up a notch, or in Pavelski’s case, just keep playing a high-octane game.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference as of February 7th)