Dallas Stars Prospect Series 2.0: Ertel's road to a NHL entry-level contract

Dallas Stars Prospect Series: Ertel’s background

In Ertel’s first season after being drafted 79th overall by Dallas (2021-2022), he played NCAA college hockey for Cornell University, scoring 9 points in 23 games as a freshman. These stats could have been worse, but it was clear to Ertel that he needed a change of scenery. For 2022-2023, Ertel left the NCAA to join the North Bay Battalion of the OHL, which is a move that we rarely see high-level players do, let alone NHL-drafted prospects.

A more common situation would be entering the transfer portal and finding a different NCAA school to play for his sophomore year. Still, it’s possible that being from Kitchener, Ontario, and an opportunity to play closer to home was more attractive for the 19-year-old at the time. 

In Ertel’s first OHL season at age 19 (2022-2023), playing against players aged 16-20 in a Canadian major junior hockey league as opposed to college hockey against players aged anywhere from 18-25, Ertel did not produce well with 36 points in 46 games on a pretty stacked North Bay team that finished 2nd in the OHL.

Furthermore, Ertel could only score 1 goal and 6 points in 20 playoff games, where his two-way playmaker identity was overpowered by the tight-checking, fast, and physical OHL playoffs. At this point, it looked like Ertel would play his ‘overage’ season in the OHL and then likely head towards Canadian USports, ECHL, or maybe Europe (I predicted USports at this time). However, Justin Ertel wanted to control his destiny and elevate his game.

Justin Ertel earned his NHL entry-level contract last season. 

Ertel has maintained the skill-based two-way player foundation but has evolved his game from a pure playmaker to a well-rounded offensive threat. Regardless that he was in his Age 20 season and playing against 16-20 year-olds, he still had a great year, scoring 25 goals and 69 points in the regular season, followed by significant playoff impacts, including eight goals and 19 points in 16 games.

His pro future is still uncertain, but Justin Ertel’s growth from 2021 to now is impressive and a positive sign of work ethic and determination. It would be best to have these traits to succeed in elite hockey spaces, which are essential for success and competitiveness.

Dallas Stars Prospect Series: Ertel’s likelihood of joining the Stars this season

Justin Ertel has an outside chance of making the Texas Stars starting roster this fall. As I mentioned in the Arcuri prospect update, Ertel is part of a list of players competing for the final roster spots (Francesco Arcuri, Chase Wheatcroft, Matt Seminoff, Kyle McDonald, Justin Ertel, Justin Hryckowian, etc).

Based on what we saw from Francesco Arcuri last season, where Arcuri spent the season in ECHL Idaho for better playing time and opportunity, and since Arcuri had a more robust OHL career statistically than Ertel, I could foresee Ertel having a chance to prove himself with solid playing time in the ECHL this season. Whether Ertel plays in AHL Texas or ECHL Idaho this season, I’d be willing to bet he’s relieved to have years of hard work pay off with an Entry-Level Contract after a successful final season in junior last year.

Dallas Stars Prospect Series: What he needs to work on

Ertel does not need to change his identity to be a solid pro hockey player, whereas his two-way playmaking identity should bode well when he’s playing alongside pro hockey players. Still, I’d be curious to see whether he can continue to push the envelope on offense with more work on his skating or shot.

If Ertel can bring a ‘signature skill’ to the table, which may very well be his passing, it would add legitimacy to his toolkit instead of being a ‘jack of all trades, master of few’ type of player. I'm excited to see what Ertel can do this season, where he is undoubtedly motivated by earning an NHL Entry-Level Contract because of his hard work last year.

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