Revisiting the Tyler Seguin Trade

It seems appropriate on the eve of Bruins vs Stars that we take a look at a significant trade that will impact both teams for years to come.  On July 4th, 2013, the Boston Bruins sent Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverley, and Ryan Button to the Dallas Stars in exchange for Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith, Matt Fraser and Joe Morrow.  It was a questionable move by the Bruins at the time and it has only looked worse as time has gone on.  On the surface, it appears that the Stars are the clear-cut winners of this trade.  While I do think the Stars have been the winners of this trade, I also think that the Bruins will be satisfied with their end of the deal if Reilly Smith continues to perform at a high level.  Initially it was thought that Eriksson was the big piece that Seguin fetched, but Smith is the X-factor in the overall trade.  The big four players we will take a closer look at will be Tyler Seguin, Reilly Smith, Loui Eriksson and Rich Peverley.  Fraser was claimed on waivers not long ago by the Oilers and although he had an overtime winner for Boston in the playoffs, his time in Boston was relatively insignificant.  As for Joe Morrow and Ryan Button, it is simply too soon to see what they will become, especially with Morrow.  That being said, let’s go ahead and delve deeper into the trade that brought Tyler Seguin to Dallas.

The Basics

Just a quick note, none of the statistics below include the postseason.

Production-wise, Tyler Seguin is miles ahead of both Reilly Smith and Loui Eriksson.  While that much was to be expected as the Stars run a much more offensive system than the Bruins, I don’t think people expected there to be such a wide gap in production.  Seguin has just two points less than Smith and Eriksson combined.  

[table id=SeguinTrade1 /]

At even strength, it is more of the same.  Seguin has amassed 86 even strength points since coming to Dallas, while Eriksson and Smith have combined for 86 even strength points over the same time period.  Both Tyler Seguin (2.9) and Rich Peverley’s (2.0) points per 60 minutes at even strength exceed Eriksson (1.7) and Smith’s (1.7).

Tyler Seguin has played a season and a half in Dallas.  He has had five hat tricks since becoming a Star, which is just one shy of Mike Modano’s franchise record.  Five hat tricks in a season and a half is absolutely absurd.  His five hat tricks match the amount of two-goal games Smith and Eriksson have between them.

What is perhaps even more staggering than Seguin’s goal totals is the amount of goals he has directly set up since coming to Dallas.  Of Seguin’s 70 total assists since becoming a Star, 52 of them are first assists and only 18 of them were the second assist on the goal.  That ratio is simply outstanding.  His 52 first assists are five more than Eriksson’s and Smith’s combined 47.  There is no question that the Dallas Stars have won the offensive portion of this trade so far as Seguin is on pace to finish his second straight season in the top-5 in NHL scoring.

Defense

Defensively is where the Boston Bruins were believed to have the advantage in the trade but after a season and a half I’m not so sure how significant that advantage is.

[table id=SeguinTrade2 /]

As you can see, Tyler Seguin blew everyone away in the takeaways category.  It is an important defensive statistic to consider when looking at a player’s overall two-way performance.  Surprisingly in the smallest sample size, Peverley was the best shot blocker, although that is something that Seguin, Smith and Eriksson are not necessarily known for.  The final statistic on that table really shows that Reilly Smith is the key part of this trade for the Bruins.  While he was on the ice, the Bruins had 282 more scoring chances than their opponents.  Could some of that be a product of the Bruins system and playing with Patrice Bergeron?  Sure.  But he has been a staple on that line for a reason, and the reason is he has played incredibly well at even strength.  Defensively I will give the Bruins a slight advantage after the trade however Seguin is far from what I would call a defensive liability.  If Rich Peverley does end up finding his way back on the ice for the Stars, he could turn the tables a bit.

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The Advanced Metrics

Advanced statistics, especially at even strength, are all over the NHL and generally a great indicator of overall performance by a player.  Statistics like Corsi and Fenwick are important possession stats and give a good idea how a player is performing.  Although those numbers can be slightly skewed due to a team’s system and a player’s linemates, they are still a solid indicator of performance at even strength.

[table id=SeguinTrade3 /]

All of the metrics used in the table above are at even strength.  So as you can see, although Tyler Seguin faced slightly tougher competition, his corsi and fenwick percentages were lower than both Eriksson’s and Smith’s.  Reilly Smith’s numbers are most likely inflated, at least slightly, by playing with Patrice Bergeron.  As the table shows, the corsi % of both Smith’s and Eriksson’s teammates on the ice are significantly higher than Seguin’s.  Give the Bruins a slight edge in the advanced metrics as well, for now.  If Reilly Smith continues to perform at his current level of play, it may help even out the trade a little bit.

The Verdict (so far)

There is little doubt that the Stars have gotten the better end of the Tyler Seguin trade.  Reilly Smith’s excellent start has helped Boston fans feel a bit better and the overall feeling of this trade really depends on how he performs.  Loui Eriksson did have some concussion issues in his first year as a Bruin but his best years are behind him.  Tyler Seguin is just 22 years of age and is on pace to finish in the top-5 in NHL scoring for a second straight season.  Most people, including himself, believe he hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet.  The defensive portion of his game should continue to get better as he grows as a player.  His performance in the face off circle has already improved rather dramatically considering he just started playing center again last season.  At this point, Reilly Smith is the only thing that makes this trade even somewhat close.  If Smith isn’t able to keep up with his current level of play, Boston fans will be having nightmares about Tyler Seguin for years and years to come.

Check back here at Blackout Dallas tomorrow for a preview of the Bruins and Stars game and thank you for reading.