Dallas Stars’ Three Ways To Defeat Blues

The Western Conference kicks off the semifinals tonight with the Dallas Stars taking on the St. Louis Blues. Here are three ways the Stars can oust the Blues and move on.

Let the gun show begin. The Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues will drop the puck tonight in game one of what promises to be a stellar Western Conference semifinals series.

An ultimate battle where unstoppable offense meets impenetrable defense. How could you ask for any more? Many are already labeling the winner of this series the 2016 Stanley Cup champions. That’s how much is riding on this semifinals matchup. Two of the best teams in the NHL this season, settling in to battle it out in a wonderful seven-game slate.

Jamie Benn. Vladimir Tarasenko. Jason Spezza. Paul Stastny. John Klingberg. Jay Bouwmeester. Kari Lehtonen. Brian Elliott. These are just a few of the names looking to make an impact in the series.

The Blues have had the odds pretty evenly split for a while now. In the first round, the general public was pretty split on whether the Blues or Chicago Blackhawks would advance. The Stars, meanwhile, were the overwhelming favorites against the eight-seed Minnesota Wild. This series seems to be pretty evenly divided in terms of which team possesses the advantage.

But there are a lot of people, even some related to the Stars in terms of media and/or fandom, saying the Dallas Stars will be heading home after this round. There are reasons to believe the Stars can emerge victorious this round, but there seem to be plenty of areas where the Blues come out on top that could help them control the series.

The Stars are by no means destined to win this series and are going up against a playoff-weathered opponent, but that does not mean they are supposed to lose. The winner of this series will have to put it all out on the line, and will be sending a highly capable and deserving team home two rounds too early. That’s what this boils down to.

There are certain things that the Dallas Stars can pay sharp attention to in order to defeat the Blues, though. They have a golden opportunity set in front of them to not only move on to the Western Conference Finals, but also the Stanley Cup Finals. They are one of eight lucky teams left that have a shot at hoisting the Cup.

Here are three of the top things the Stars will need to focus on if they want to gain an upper hand on St. Louis and successfully snag the four necessary wins.

1. Match, or at least absorb, the forecheck

This is not number one just because it was the first thing to come to mind. It is number one because this is the Blues’ biggest strength that could turn into the Stars’ greatest weakness. St. Louis owns a renowned forecheck that has been used to knock off many an opponent.

The forecheck is simply a defensive tactic that entails using physicality in the offensive zone to take the puck away from the opponent and set up a scoring chance as a result. The Blues known how to do this scarily well.

The Dallas Stars will need to learn how to deal with this throughout the entire series. The Stars lineup is not built around physicality and size, and they are often prone to ugly and unnecessary turnovers. This is where the Blues could hit the Stars the hardest.

If Dallas can contain the puck in their defensive zone and find the quick breakout pass, they could turn the tide on the Blues attack. But if they get stuck in their own zone against a much more physical St. Louis squad, Kari Lehtonen and/or Antti Niemi could be seeing a lot more shots than they are prepared for. Bottom line: if the Stars cannot counter the forecheck, they will be in for a rude awakening and early vacation.

2. Get an aggressive and fluid offensive attack going

We can say all we want about the Dallas Stars offense and how it proved to be the most effective attack during the regular season. But when they are put up against one of the best defensive teams in the league for a continuous period of time, we’ll get to see their true colors.

The St. Louis Blues pride themselves on a defensive game, and that could be a problem for the Stars. While it is not the most effective strategy to simply plan on outscoring the opponent in order to win, it is the one the Dallas Stars have settled with so far throughout the playoffs. The mindset of, “If they score seven, all we have to do is score eight” is not as strong an argument as, “Let’s keep them out of our net, period.”

So while the Stars are not very sharp on defense, they do tend to thrive on offense. But when big time offense meets big time defense, it is assured that there will not be a dominant winner. Instead, one team will gain the upper hand by a slight advantage. That needs to be the Dallas Stars.

The Stars need to figure out a fluid and consistent offensive attack that they can use against the Blues if they want to win this series. They know that the Blues will get those two or three goals against whenever the Stars defense slips up, so they must figure out how to score three or four in their favor each game. The defense will by no means be perfect, meaning the offense will need to take control.

Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza will need to lead this charge in the absence of Tyler Seguin. The two top-six forwards combined for 19 points in the six games of the first round. But it cannot stop there. The Stars will need all hands on deck, getting contributions from those bottom-line checking forwards like Colton Sceviour, Vernon Fiddler, Radek Faksa, and Ales Hemsky as well.

If the Stars’ can get the Blues defensive core hemmed in and continue to break them down in their own zone, they can find a way to get pucks to the front of the net and hopefully cash in. The Blues will get some goals here and there with their average defense, we get that. It just means that the Stars will need to score one or two more in their favor. Plain and simple.

3. Find a way to break Brian Elliott, and Jake Allen if necessary

While the St. Louis Blues are known around the league for their defensive pressure, the skill in their goaltending department does not go unnoticed. The Blues two-headed goalie monster features 31-year old Brian Elliott and 25-year old Jake Allen. Both are dangerous goalies and can become difficult to get a puck past when they find their groove.

Both also had decent success against the Stars this past year. Elliott finished 1-1-0, while Allen ended an undefeated 3-0-0. Throughout the first round, the Blues used Elliott exclusively in all seven games, and he did not disappoint. He posted a .929 save percentage and 2.40 goals against average against an offensively powerful Chicago Blackhawks team.

More stars: Will Tyler Seguin's Injury Prove Fatal For Stars?

His statistics this year against the Dallas Stars were impressive as well. His first start against the Stars this season was in Dallas on December 27, 2015. The Stars would win 3-0, but Elliott finished the day going 35-37 for a .946 save percentage. In his second start on February 16 in St. Louis, he went 17-18 for a .944 save percentage. That comes out to a 1.50 GAA and a .945 save percentage. That’s pretty impressive.

It’s assumed that Blues head coach Ken Hitchcock will give Elliott the nod for tonight, meaning the Stars will need to find a way to crack him early and often. The Blues’ have been one of Dallas’ biggest challengers in the goal-scoring department this season. The Stars averaged a lowly 2.00 goals against the Blues this season. That was their second lowest average against all NHL opponents.

The Stars will need to do all they can to find a way around Elliott and/or Allen. I know it sounds pretty obvious and applies to every other typical NHL game, but the Stars high-flying offense always seems to be bogged down by the Blues’ goaltending tandem. Those steady and consistent offensive attacks might help in fixing this problem. Just saying.

All in all, the Dallas Stars are set up for a battle of wits and stamina with the other Central Division powerhouse left in the Cup race. At this point in the playoff slate, strategy seems like the only effective method. If the Stars can rely on the drawing board to produce effective theories, they could be in better shape than you might initially expect.

Next: Scouting St. Louis: How Do The Stars Match Up With The Blues?

But this series is going to be a challenging one for the Stars, as well as the Blues. It is two opposing forces meeting in a tug-of-war matchup. Dallas will be pulling with their offensive might, while the Blues will be tugging with their defensive power. Who wants it more? I guess we’ll find out tonight when the frozen rubber hits the ice and kicks off this series for the ages.