Dallas Stars Tyler Seguin: What Is He Really Worth?
After Tyler Seguin set Boston on fire with his overtime winner, Dallas Stars Twitter erupted with please for the Stars to extend his contract. But first, we have to get a feel for what Seguin is really worth.
Tyler Seguin danced around three Boston Bruins defenders, waited for goaltender Anton Khudobin to bite on a fake shot or two, and sealed a 3-2 win for the Dallas tars on Monday, launching Twitter into a “pay that man” frenzy.
A healthy, productive Tyler Seguin is imperative to the success of the Dallas Stars. Seguin is a world-class center on a 40-goal pace in 2017-18, as he looks poised to reach the 70-point mark for the fifth straight season.
To have one part of the Benneguin duo locked up long term in Jamie Benn, while the other waits, has irked the Stars fanbase. Jamie Benn will remain a Stars forward until after the 2024-25 season, while Seguin has this season and the next before hitting unrestricted free agency.
This, as you might have guessed, is a problem. The Stars need Tyler Seguin, but Tyler Seguin does not necessarily need the Stars. He can get green anywhere, play as a 1C just about anywhere, and potentially carve his name into the Stanley Cup again anywhere.
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It’s for that reason why the Dallas Stars need to look into how valuable the Brampton, Ontario native really is in terms of fair market, salary cap hit. Not to say you can overpay for a guy with 0.99 points per game on your team, but you definitely don’t want to underpay him and leave him bitter.
Contract extensions are so difficult to project and analyze because they fall under what makes hockey players human: the desires of fame, money, and success is absurdly normal and not anything like what hockey players generally experience.
But, I digress. We’re gonna look at four main factors: the NHL’s salary cap’s rising ceiling, recent deals that are comparable to what Seguin might be looking at, the teammates around him, and how his immense production stacks up to his value.
NHL Salary Cap Projections
Firstly, the rising cap. It’s been estimated by Gary Bettman and those in the NHL’s highest executive levels that the cap should ascend to somewhere between $78 million and $82 million in 2018-19 thanks to the added stability of the Canadian dollar. This is a massive increase from the $75 million dollar cap of this season.
Some experts add that the cap might go upwards of $90 million within eight years. If Seguins signs a max deal that extends that long, expect the cap to keep rising and for Seguin’s salary to follow suit.
"Draw a bath, run a shower. That was filthy from number 91." @tseguinofficial did the Bruins dirty with this @EASPORTSNHL OT winner. https://t.co/gf8dNesAe9
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) January 15, 2018
It’s this that allowed Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers to agree to a record average annual value of $12.5 million on an extension in the offseason. The Dallas Stars might have an extra few dollars to spend, up to $7 million at that. Keep that in mind when Seguin keeps his production up to NHL-elite levels, as this might bump his salary up a little.
Comparable Contracts Around The League
Dallas Stars
For this experiment, we’re going to utilize another tool from the splendid CapFriendly site. We get to submit a fake, made up contract, and it compares that deal to some that are comparable to them. With this, we projected an eight-year, $11-million dollar per year deal for Tyler Seguin.
The most similar contracts around the NHL are as follows: Claude Giroux, Jack Eichel, Ryan Johansen, and McDavid. Of course, Seguin isn’t going to get McDavid money, but if a 20-year-old Eichel can grab $10 million per year, then it isn’t far fetched to say, with elite production and a rising cap ceiling, that Seguin can garner $11 mil.
That’s basically our fair starting point if I was negotiating the deal – $11 million. Anything above or below is possible and understandable, but Seguin’s fair market value hovers around that mark.
Point Production
Sidney Crosby and Nicklas Backstrom. Those two, along with Tyler, are the only players with 70 or more points in the past four years. Seguin is on a 74-point pace (along with 40 goals), while Crosby is at a point-per-game average – Backstrom, however, will only hit 67 points at his current speed.
Are you telling me that the most consistent point producers in the NHL, in an era where goals are as scarce as ever, are Tyler Seguin and one of the ten-best players in hockey history? Seguin and Crosby are arguably, alongside McDavid, the most valuable centers in the National Hockey League.
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Seguin is a point off the lead in points for the Stars, and could very weel top them in scoring for the third time in his five years here. He’s truly a step above everyone in terms of importance, save maybe Benn, but he’s that valuable and crucial to the Stars’ success. This probably jumps his salary up some as well.
The Teammate Factor
For the next four seasons, Tyler Seguin gets to play alongside his partner in crime Benn (even longer at that), Alexander Radulov, and John Klingberg. The teammate factor is obviously big in terms of a free agent’s decision, but as far as an extension to a pre-existing contract, it may be ever bigger.
All four of Seguin, Benn, Radulov, and Klingberg sit on 70-point paces this season. If the factor of teammates and their assistance in winning is as critical as it is to a UFA, then there might not be a better place for Seguin than Dallas (which is relieving to type).
In addition, the Stars have guys like Miro Heiskanen, Denis Gurianov, and Roope Hintz knocking on the door of NHL staying power. Seguin has support around him, and more coming as the years go by with the Dallas Stars. So, he might take a little discount to keep playing beside these fellow All-Star caliber players.
Next: Alexander Radulov's All-Star Case
All in all, I’m thinking a seven or eight year contract around $12 million per year. All factors considered, including the stellar play of the Dallas Stars No. 1 center, that might be what Seguin gets on the free agent market, so it’s only fair to extend him at that price.
Let’s just get this guy signed and paid this summer, alright, Jim Nill?