Dallas Stars: Five Things They Must Do To Get In Stanley Cup Playoffs
As we hit the month of March, every day becomes more critical in the Stanley Cup Playoff race. In the Western Conference, the Dallas Stars are in good standing (for now). But what must they do in the upcoming month to solidify a spot in the postseason?
It’s March 1. With that being said, there’s only 38 days left in the regular season for the Dallas Stars. Seems like just yesterday they opened the season against Vegas, huh?
But here they sit. 38 days and 19 games separating them from the beginning of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. With that thought comes plenty of excitement, but also plenty of uncertainty.
That’s because the Western Conference is as packed as ever in this year’s playoff race. With a little over one month to go in the season, 11 of the 15 teams in the West could still realistically qualify for the postseason. That may seem crazy enough, but it gets crazier.
With the way the NHL playoffs are formatted, the top three teams of each division automatically qualify for the race while two wild cards (which are the next two highest teams in the standings) round out the bracket.
In other words, divisional standing is extremely important. It’s the primary factor in determining whether a team makes the playoffs. After all, only a max of five teams can make it.
This year, both the Pacific Division and Central Division are managing close races. In the Central, only six points separate four teams (places 3-6). Things get even more precise in the Pacific, with four points separating four teams (places 2-5). All nine of the teams mentioned could not only make the playoffs, but also finish in the top three in their division. That’s pretty incredible.
Smack dab in the middle of the Central Division race sits the Dallas Stars. With a record of 36-23-4 with 76 points, the Stars own sole possession of the first wild card spot. They sit three points back of the Minnesota Wild, who own the third place spot in the division.
While this is an encouraging spot to be in, 19 games is a long time and a lot could happen. In addition to that, there are four teams within five points just behind the Stars. Dallas picked up a huge win against the Calgary Flames (who are now three points back of the Stars) on Tuesday night, creating some much-needed breathing room. But with the way things have gone lately, it likely won’t last long.
“Well we know it’s going to be a sprint to the finish,” said Stars defenseman Greg Pateryn back in early February. “Every team around us has that mentality and mindset so every game is going to be a battle. But it’s going to be fun.”
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The Stars will have to stay on top of their game and have little room for error over the next month. It could very well come down to the wire, and each game is absolutely critical.
The Dallas Stars have a tall test ahead of them in their final 19 games (more on that later today) and could be caught off guard if they aren’t prepared.
But with the spot they are in right now, the playoff race is as exciting as it’s going to get. Two games could either push Dallas into the top three in the division or bump them from the playoff picture, depending on the results.
So what must the Stars do over the final 19 games to punch their ticket to the postseason (besides win, of course)? Here are a few things that would help them out.
1. The Power Play Woes Have To Go
When another team is giving you an easier chance at a goal for two or four minutes, why not take it? The Dallas Stars seem to have a reasoning for not taking advantage of it. Or maybe they are just in a funk. Either way, something needs to be done in the upcoming month if this team wants to qualify for and compete in the postseason.
At one point this season, the Stars had one of the most successful power plays in the league. Through the first 15 games of the season, Dallas owned the best PP unit across the NHL. In the middle of January, they still sat in a good spot with the 11th best power play.
Now, however, things are different. The Dallas Stars currently own the 21st best power play in the NHL with a 19.1 percent success rate. An ideal PP success rate in today’s NHL is usually at least 20 percent, so it’s clear that the Stars have slipped.
Dallas Stars
To give you a quick comparison, Dallas owned a 22.1 percent success rate on the power play in the 2015-16 season (when the Stars finished in first place in both the Central Division and the Western Conference).
The month of February seems to have significantly contributed to their PP downfall. In the 12 games throughout last month, Dallas capitalized on just six of their 37 power play opportunities (16.2 percent). That’s good enough for 26th in the league.
Now, let’s be honest: a subpar power play isn’t necessarily a primary determinant in whether a team makes the playoffs or not. But it does carry some significance. For example, Dallas went 0/4 on the PP in their game against Anaheim one week ago. The Stars lost that game 2-0. What if the Stars could have capitalized on their power play opportunities? Does that game end differently?
It’s an important strength for any hockey team to have, especially a team in the playoff race.
And right now, something isn’t working for the Stars. Whether they are in a funk or there is something wrong internally, the patience of head coach Ken Hitchcock is starting to simmer out. Hitchcock talked after the Calgary game about his desire for his team’s PP unit to reignite their energy, but also promised that he would make big changes if this inconsistent stretch lasted much longer.
Over the next month, the Stars will go up against some of the stingiest penalty kill units in the league. It will be a great test to see if they can turn a corner and put this rough patch behind them. Converting on the power play can be the sole difference between winning and losing a game.
After all, when a team commits a penalty, the only sensible option is to make them pay for it, right?
2. Balance Must Be Found When Choosing Starting Goalies
It’s not easy having two starting goaltenders on the same roster. The Dallas Stars learned that in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons with Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi.
Though there were some flashes of potential here and there, the plan never panned out for the Stars. Both goaltenders could not acquaint themselves to the fact of splitting time, and that was one of a few causes that led to subpar results.
As a result of that strife, the Stars bought out Niemi this past summer and brought in Ben Bishop. Yes, he is a younger starter. Why would they do that?
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Well, because they needed a confident starting goaltender in his prime to take the reins while Lehtonen hopefully transitioned seamlessly to a backup role.
So far, things are working well for the duo, and the Stars are benefitting as a result. Bishop (.918 SV%, 2.47 GAA) and Lehtonen (.919, 2.30 GAA) are more often than not giving the Stars a continuously dominant presence in the crease and buying the team a chance to win.
While Bishop has started in 46 of the Stars’ 63 games, Lehtonen has been tremendous as the backup. Both goalies are gaining confidence as the season goes along and giving the team in front of them confidence as well.
And that’s exactly why Dallas will need to manage their goaltending decisions wisely in the final stretch. Over the final 19 games, the Dallas Stars schedule involves quite a stretch.
The Stars play 19 games in 38 days, which puts them in a “game every other day” scenario. There are three back-to-backs in that span and the Stars’ longest break is two days. In addition to that, they will embark a six-game road trip through mid-March that takes place over a ten-day span.
This is where some timely and accurate management will have to come into play.
Managing rest and playing time for both goaltenders may prove to be an intricate task, but it will pay off extensively in the long run. The good thing that Hitchcock has working for him is the balance of both goalies. In other words, both net-minders have shown that they can succeed in any situation faced this year, whether that be playing at home or on the road and facing divisional or non-divisional opponents.
But this will be a critical balance that, if found, will give Dallas it’s best chance to win each and every game. And who wouldn’t want more 38-save shutouts like Bishop posted on Tuesday night?
The Dallas Stars have two starting goaltenders in their arsenal. If they can use them properly and at the right times over the next month, these two could be the team’s biggest strength in the playoff push.
3. Paging Captain Benn
The Dallas Stars defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 on Friday, Feb. 9 in a shootout. It very well could be considered the Stars’ most thrilling win of February and maybe even the season. But it was also the last time that Jamie Benn truly played like his regular self. That’s a problem for the Dallas Stars captain.
For the past six or seven seasons, Benn has been a prime member of the Stars lineup. Natural and consistent scoring power? You got it. Contributor on both special teams units? For sure. A physical presence that can stand up for his teammates? Without a doubt. An overall “complete package” player with one of the highest hockey IQs in the NHL? Definitely.
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That’s just a small summary of all that Jamie Benn brings to the table. But over the past month, Stars fans haven’t seen that from no. 14. And that’s obviously having a serious effect on the team.
The captain has been a consistent member of the first line for years, but in the past month he’s spent a few games on the second line. That’s not supposed to serve as a punishment or anything. It’s simply a way of trying to get Benn back into his groove.
After tallying three assists against the Penguins on Feb. 9, Benn’s production dropped off significantly. Since then, he’s tallied zero goals and three assists along with a -3 rating in seven games. In three of those games, he didn’t even tally a shot.
That’s not normal for the 2014-15 Art Ross Trophy winner. Benn is usually a dominant force at even strength and on the power play. But over the past few games, he’s looked lackadaisical with the puck and seems to be missing a stride behind. It’s starting to worry Stars fans (and cause many to overreact via social media), but these worries have some truth behind them.
If Benn does not score a goal on Thursday night against Tampa Bay, he will hit the one-month mark of not scoring a goal on Saturday. That’s a scary thought that Jamie Benn is going through a goal drought as significant as this.
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This season, the Dallas captain has 21 goals and 55 points in 63 games. Last season, he had 69 points in 77 games. Don’t forget that last season was a step down from his usual level of production.
But one thing is for sure: the Dallas Stars need their captain back. Maybe all he needs is one goal or a multi-point performance to break him out. Whatever it is, he needs to find it quick. The Dallas offense looks altogether lost without Benn on the scoresheet.
A ship always needs its captain, but so does a hockey team. Benn needs to get back in the saddle quickly if the Stars have any hope of being led to the postseason. That’s what captains do, after all.
4. Don’t Let The Defense Cool Off… Ever
I think it’s safe to say at this point that this is not some sort of sick, twisted dream. It also isn’t a fluke. This Dallas Stars defense is real and effective.
It’s almost impossible to think about how a defense that finished in 29th place in the goals against category last year and only added one player in the offseason that ended up missing over half the season is doing this well. But they are.
At the moment, the Dallas Stars defense is giving up an average of 2.57 goals against per game. That plots them at fourth place in the league, with fifth place being at 2.66 and first place being at 2.47. Only Los Angeles, Boston, and Nashville are currently fronting better defenses. And all three of those teams currently have more cap invested in their blue lines.
Dallas Stars
This Dallas Stars defense is showing not only incredible potential, but also incredible results. They really showed off their skills in the month of February, giving up the least amount of goals of any team in the NHL at 27 through 12 games. That included two shutouts that were both in response to disappointing losses in the previous game.
And though it’s a bit worrisome when considering that the Stars gave up 5+ goals in three of their 12 games last month. But it also leaves a lot of promise for those other nine games.
This defense is gaining confidence as the season goes along, and it’s showing in their play and on the stat sheet. Besides cycling between Marc Methot/Julius Honka/Dillon Heatherington on the third pairing with Stephen Johns, Ken Hitchcock has not messed with his defensive lineup in months. That’s because he trusts them and what they are doing, and each pairing gives him something different and unique to work with.
This defense is staying calm in the zone, back checking with purpose, and giving up minimal chances at the net. If they get hemmed in the zone, they don’t fret and find an efficient way out of it.
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The Dallas Stars defense is as focused, structured, and fundamentally sound as its been in years.
And considering defense wins championships, the Stars need to make sure that this blue line success keeps rolling.
The rest of the Dallas lineup is feeding off of their confidence and success and using it on the ice.
So it would be to their benefit if the defense just keeps doing its thing and improving with each passing game. The fact that they are as close to first place as they are to fifth just goes to show how dominant this team is.
Not bad for a defense that was the laughing stock of the league last season. #HitchHockey really works.
Simply Hanging In The Fight Will Work, Too
This sounds pretty self-explanatory, but let me explain it a little further.
It seems pretty obvious. Win some games and hang around in the playoff picture in order to make the playoffs. But there’s more to it than just that.
Sure, the playoff race has stayed close up to this point in the Western Conference. But it looks like the month of March will be the month where some separation is created. That’s due to the number of contests between any two teams in the race.
For example, the Dallas Stars play the Minnesota Wild twice this month. They play Anaheim and St. Louis once a piece also.
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And it’s the same in other corners too. Calgary and Colorado faced off last night. Anaheim will meet up with Calgary, St. Louis, and Los Angeles in the upcoming month. St. Louis plays Dallas, Anaheim, and Colorado in the month ahead.
All of the teams in or near the wild card race in the West are colliding at different times throughout this month, and that could significantly jumble the standings.
By the end of March, at least two more teams will likely have fallen out of the race. It’s just how things have to go. The fight has been fun to watch, but it’s time for things to start panning out.
That’s where the Dallas Stars need to stay weary. Not only do the Stars need to win those “four-point” games, but they simply need to keep themselves in the race while other teams slowly factor themselves out.
At the moment, the Stars own a manageable lead in the wild card race and are still making a push for a top-three spot. But that can disappear quickly with a few rough performances.
That being said, the one thing that is important above all others is that the Stars play a consistent style over the final month and win the games that carry an extra weight. That sounds obvious and simple enough, but it just might be the trickiest aspect of the Stars’ playoff push.
The month of March is finally here, and that means that it’s time for the NHL to buckle down. The 7-9 teams at the top of the pack are already preparing for the postseason, while the 7-9 teams at the bottom of the standings are trying to survive the year so they can begin planning ahead for next season.
Next: That Level Of Effort Won't Carry Stars Far In Race
But for the other 13-17 teams in the middle of the pack, the race is just now getting good.
The Dallas Stars know that, and it’s up to the team to give the necessary effort in the final push. And with that being said, here comes Tampa Bay.