Dallas Stars: Determining Value Of A Backup Goaltender
The backup goaltender position in the NHL is the most critical reserve position in professional sports. In no other competition is a non-starter relied upon to carry a team through 40 percent of the season. With Ben Bishop‘s injury history and the ever-tightening nature of NHL standings, signing a good backup is more important than ever for the Dallas Stars.
The Dallas Stars are in need of a backup goaltender. After doling out over $4 million apiece for both Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen over the last few years—moves that were not worth the money—the Stars can go out and spend backup cash on a backup goaltender.
Although second-line scoring should be Dallas’ primary concern this offseason, there is no doubt that finding a suitable backup goaltender is a close second. The Stanley Cup Playoffs bear this out.
Both the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights relied on their backup goalies for long stretches of the season. Philipp Grubauer appeared in 35 games for Washington, carrying the team late in the season and even earning the starting nod over Braden Holtby to start the playoffs. In Vegas, Malcolm Subban proved capable of placing his finger in the dike during Marc-Andre Fleury‘s injury midway through the season.
But what is backup goaltender money? Backup goalies in the NHL made anywhere from $650,000 to $5.9 million (ahem, Kari) in 2017-18. What should the franchise be looking for in a reserve netminder? What’s the 50th percentile? Does a team need a high-priced backup?
Selling on Value
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To figure into my calculations, a goalie had to appear—not necessarily start—in at least eight regular-season games. They could not appear in more than 41 games. If a team had two goalies play in at least 40 games (Carolina Hurricanes), neither goaltender was used in these calculations. In all, 43 goalies qualified. Netminders that played for more than one team were qualified by salary and appearances for each team for which they played.
The simple answer is a backup goaltender is worth whatever a franchise is willing to pay. As mentioned above, Lehtonen cost the Stars $5 million (in salary, not cap hit), or $135,135.14 per appearance. That was third highest in the NHL for a backup goaltender. Lehtonen appeared in 37 games, more than a team typically likes to play a backup; however, injuries forced Dallas’ hand.
The average backup goaltender was paid approximately $1.35 million for 2017-18, was 28-years old, and appeared in 21.4 games. That’s roughly $64,285 per appearance. If you eliminate all backups who appeared in less than 10 games, but more than eight, the average number of games jumps to 23.1. Over the course of the season, steady backup goaltenders appeared in somewhere between 25-to-35 games.
So, in a vacuum, the Stars are theoretically looking for a backup goaltender that will make $1.35 million, is 28-years old, and will appear in close to 30 games this season. In this case, they’d find the 50th percentile close to $2 million per year; however, there are also internal factors that play into this scenario.
Ghosts of Goalie’s Past
The first is Jake Oettinger. The Boston University goaltender was a first-round pick by the Stars in 2017, and the franchise hopes that he’ll be the goalie of the future. But that future isn’t wholly upon us. Oettinger, 19, will play at least one more year at Boston, and likely spend multiple seasons at the minor-league level. Theoretically, if all goes perfectly, he could be with the big club by 2021-22, when he’s 23-years old.
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Bishop is under contract for five more years, and Dallas would no doubt like to have Oettinger back up Bishop for at least one season to acclimate to the league. As an example, Marty Turco backed up Ed Belfour for two seasons from 2000-02, appearing in 57 games during that time.
Of course, life often has a different version of reality than our best intentions, and there’s no better example of this than Jack Campbell. Originally thought to be the next in a long line of stellar Stars goaltenders, Campbell was taken 11th overall in the 2010 NHL Draft. But he struggled throughout six years in the minors and was traded to the Los Angeles Kings in 2016-17, leaving the franchise with long-term uncertainty at the position for the first time since moving to Dallas.
But in the years between Campbell and Oettinger, it’s not as if the Stars sat on their hands. Dallas has taken late round goaltenders Henry Kiviaho, Brent Moran, Markus Ruusu, and Colton Point. They also took Philippe Desrosiers in the second round in 2013. Not surprisingly, the 22-year old Desrosiers has shown the most potential, posting a .913 SV% with the Idaho Steelheads in 2017-18.
But in the bridge between now and when the next generation of Stars goalies take the ice, who can Dallas afford? More importantly, with Bishop’s injury history, how much of a priority should a good backup goalie be?
Assessing the Free Agent Market
The Dallas Stars should aim above the 50th percentile. A good backup goalie can carry teams for an extended period; a bad one can sink a promising season. Therefore, Dallas should aim for a proven backup who may be on the more expensive side.
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The most obvious name on the market is Carter Hutton. At age 32, Hutton isn’t likely to get a sprawling deal, yet his stats suggest he will be well-compensated. As the backup to Jake Allen in St. Louis in 2017-18, Hutton had an astounding .931 SV% and +15.09 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA)—a stat used to measure performance against league average goaltending—in 32 games. He made $1.125 million.
This number will go up, but by how much is uncertain. As a top-level backup, Hutton will undoubtedly pull in more than the overall average $1.35 million and the 30-game average of $2 million. In fact, it’ll probably be well over that, falling somewhere in the $2.3-2.6 million range. This places him in the upper echelon of backup goaltenders. A three-year, $8 million contract isn’t out of the question, and Dallas has the cap space to make it happen.
Anton Khudobin, 32, is another option. His numbers are less impressive than Hutton’s, posting roughly a .910 SV% over the past three seasons in Anaheim and Boston; however, his Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) was +.89, above average for a backup. Khudobin will come cheaper than Hutton and can likely be signed for $1.5-$1.75 million/year.
And then there’s the option of bringing Lehtonen back. The 35-year old Finn is in the final stretch of his career and doubts persist about whether or not he can still carry a team over 30 games. He had a rebound year in 2017-18, posting a .912 SV% and a +.03 GSAA, both of which are perfectly average. The previous three years, when he was Dallas’ starter, Lehtonen had a combined .904 SV% and an abominable -47.73 GSAA.
Lehtonen’s asking price will be at least $2 million, but his inconsistent play might cause market interest to wane. He’ll also get a shorter deal than Hutton or Khudobin, which could make a two year/$4-5 million contract more palatable for the Stars than shelling out money for Hutton, especially if they want to sign a scorer to beef up the second line.
Next: Top 25 Stars Games Of The Year: No. 15-11
If the Dallas Stars want to be a serious playoff contender, riding the Ben Bishop Gravy Train isn’t likely to bear fruit. Dallas must sign a backstop who can fill in on a relief basis, as well as play multiple weeks at a time in the event of an injury to Bishop. It might be the difference between making the playoffs and taking a vacation in early May.