Dallas Stars: Assessing Both Sides Of A Potential Erik Karlsson Trade
On Tuesday night, the Dallas Stars were rumored to be the frontrunner in a potential Erik Karlsson trade. However, recent reports about the details of the trade have split Stars fans on whether it’s a good idea. Should the team try and make a move?
It’s the Fourth of July, Dallas Stars fans. You know what that means.
First off, it marks the five-year anniversary since Tyler Seguin was traded to the team by Boston in the 2013 offseason. And secondly, it means that it’s another day for general manager Jim Nill to make a big splash.
It’s never really been like Nill to conduct big offseason business on July 1. While other teams land their big fishes via free agency signings on the first day of the market opening, the Dallas Stars have become known for staying relatively quiet. Instead, they wait quietly in the shadows, assess what their opponents do, and then counter with a blockbuster move and “win the offseason.” You’ve heard this story before, right?
It’s not unlike Dallas to be quiet on July 1. And that’s why it wasn’t necessarily a shock when the Stars only made some subpar depth moves for three days ago. Instead of going after a superstar top six scorer or potentially landing John Tavares, Dallas instead signed Blake Comeau and Roman Polak.
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It was a curious move, but wasn’t one that should be significantly questioned. After all, you should know Nill’s style by now.
Following the first day of moves, Nill left the door open for more potential moves in the future.
“This is a good part of it,” Nill said about his 2018-19 roster. “We’re still talking to teams and still have to get some guys signed. And once again, there’s still lots of things that I think could happen over the summer. But this is a pretty good core of our team.”
Well, those “lots of things” could be happening as early as today.
On Tuesday evening, the Stars were linked as the frontrunner in a potential trade for Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. Trading for one of the best defenders of this generation is no small matter. So obviously, Nill is in the middle of it all.
Trading for an incredibly gifted offensive defenseman? Sign Dallas up, right? Well, maybe not.
As more details about the trade began surfacing throughout Tuesday night, more Stars fans became uncertain about the deal. With the assets reportedly involved in the return price, would it really be worth it in the end for Dallas?
Talks on going between Dallas and Senators ... Senators focusing on Miro Heiskanen third overall to Dallas last year, one source suggested. Dallas would rather give up Julius Honka, 14th overall in 2014. Played 42 games with Stars last season. Stay tuned.
— Chris Stevenson 🇨🇦🏒⛳️🍺 (@CJ_Stevenson) July 4, 2018
Some of the assets in the potential return included Julius Honka, Devin Shore, Radek Faksa, and draft picks. But the main name that threw up red flags for Stars fans was 2017 first-round pick Miro Heiskanen. According to reports, Heiskanen is the Senators’ main target. That has some Stars fans unhappy and ready to back out, but others are still insistent on taking the deal and getting it done.
We ran a poll on our Twitter page last night asking for the opinions of Stars fans, and the results were almost evenly split (at the time this article was written). It had over 500 votes and boasted a 56-44 split.
Only because this seems to be a significant point of debate between Stars fans...
— Blackout Dallas (@BlackoutDallas) July 4, 2018
Would you give up Miro Heiskanen in exchange for Erik Karlsson?
Those aren’t typical numbers for a sports fan base. More often than not, there’s a significant majority that either agrees or disagrees with a move the team makes. This situation looks to be different.
And with that being said, it’s only fair that we present the pros and cons of both sides. Should the Dallas Stars go after Erik Karlsson regardless of the return price? Or should they leave it alone and continue their pursuit towards 2018-19? “Go for Karlsson” or “Hands Off Miro.”
Here’s a look at both sides.
To Go For Erik Karlsson
Why should the Dallas Stars go after Erik Karlsson? Well, that is pretty obvious.
If you’ve paid any attention to the NHL over the past few years, you have likely heard of him.
He’s a two-time Norris Trophy winner and has been a runner-up multiple times as well. Karlsson has also cracked the top ten in Hart Trophy voting on various occasions since beginning his NHL career in 2009-10.
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In his nine seasons in the NHL, he’s become the complete package on defense. Karlsson can skate heavy minutes and can average up to 27 or 28 minutes per game. Considering John Klingberg can also skate 24 to 25 (with potential for more), you’re talking about two right handed defenders skating for most of the game for you. That’s unreal.
And in addition to his consistent minutes, he is also a severe threat on offense. No. 65 is worth at least 60 points on a yearly basis and can even hit up to 20 goals when need be. His possession numbers are unmatched, his offensive push is impressive and threatening, and he’s one of the best all-around defensemen in the league.
He can play heavy minutes on special teams, can serve as the top defenseman for any blue line, and is a 200-foot threat.
That’s why the Dallas Stars should go after him, regardless of the price. To put him on the right side along with John Klingberg and Stephen Johns would likely be considered an unfair trio by many. The fact that Karlsson likes the idea of coming to Dallas and would potentially sign an extension with Dallas makes it even more enticing, regardless of the cost because Nill can find a way to make it happen.
The Stars have an elite group of players on their roster, including Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Ben Bishop. And at the moment, Benn is in the middle of his prime, Seguin is slowly entering his prime, and Bishop is exiting his prime.
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These three players make up a large part of the Stars’ elite class. A common thread between the three of them? They’ve never won a Stanley Cup. And none of them have made it past the second round of playoffs when wearing a Stars uniform. Eventually, that becomes a significant cause for worry.
The Dallas Stars have to keep swinging for the fences at this point. There’s no time to slowly retool or completely rebuild. These core players are in their prime playing days and won’t be going much higher in terms of output before they start to go back down. They’ve put themselves in a position where they have to go after top names if the opportunity presents itself. Two playoff appearances in the past ten years just stands out too much.
If the Stars can land a top defender now via trade and further bolster the blue line along with greatly improving the team’s chances at winning it all, do it. Sometimes trading away potential future assets is the best move, especially when it comes at the promise of immediate success.
There’s no more time for the Dallas Stars to delay. This is a rare situation in which a generational talent is available and the Stars are considered the top dog in the race. Make it happen or risk playing the “what if” game over the next few years.
Whether it’s just Miro Heiskanen or even Heiskanen, another player, and a pick or two, do it. You have a proven and guaranteed NHL elite superstar on the table. That’s the biggest part.
Too easy, right?
To Not Go For Karlsson
On the other half of the Stars Twitterverse, we have those who think Dallas should avoid the trade based on what the team would have to give up.
In the reported negotiations, the Senators are pushing to get Miro Heiskanen in return. The Stars selected Heiskanen at third overall in the 2017 NHL Draft, where he was considered the best defender available. He seemed like a solid add at that point, but sent his potential through the roof this past season while playing in Liiga (Finland’s top league).
There, the 18-year-old set all sorts of records. First off, he made the Liiga All-Star Team. Secondly, he led the entire league in time on ice with an average of 25:06 skated per game. He was also named the top defenseman in the league… at the age of 18. This is a league primarily composed of players in the same age range as the NHL, which makes it even more impressive.
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Heiskanen scored 11 goals and tallied 23 points in 30 games with HIFK last season. That’s as a defender, which is incredible.
He had a season that any 18-year-old would be lucky to have. And that’s exactly why the Dallas Stars need to keep him.
Too long has this team put their faith in free agent signings and trade acquisitions that have already developed elsewhere. It works to an extent, but gives the team less time with the talent.
But on the other hand, they could very well have 20 years with Heiskanen. Some will make the argument that Heiskanen is a top-end prospect, he isn’t “proven” like Karlsson. But I would venture to say that what he accomplished in the top league in Finland as an 18-year-old is considered “proven.”
This is the Stars’ first chance in a while to finally get a first-round draft pick right. After multiple years of reaching for a top prospect, Heiskanen looks like a surefire add and a game-changing piece to the future of their blue line. Why would you trade that away?
He possesses many of the same qualities as Karlsson, being a dominant skater and using his all-out offensive abilities. Trading away an 18-year-old for a 28-year-old that may not even be in Dallas next summer due to his contract situation seems radical and inefficient.
Heiskanen will, however, be in Dallas next season and could wear a Stars uniform until 2035 or later. Doesn’t that sound much better?
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Whether it’s trading Heiskanen and assets or just Heiskanen straight up, it shouldn’t be done. He’s too valuable of a piece.
When talking about his offseason moves on Sunday afternoon, Nill continuously brought up Heiskanen’s name as a major in-house addition and raved about is skills and performance.
“But in the end, we’re talking about adding some pretty good pieces,” said Nill. “You start adding Miro Heiskanen, who’s maybe the best young prospect in the world right now, we’re adding some major pieces.”
Does a general manager who calls one of their players the “best young prospect in the world” really want to trade that player away three days later? How would that look on the organization? Probably not so good.
If there is a chance that the Stars can land Karlsson without including Heiskanen, then by all means they should take it. But that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least at the moment.
Heiskanen is proving to be a generational talent and just didn’t seem to have an off switch last season. He can play in just about any situation and provide defensive smarts along with offensive explosiveness. Why wouldn’t you want to see what the 18-year-old can do in Victory Green next year? The Stars can trade for Karlsson, but Ottawa can’t have Heiskanen. That possibility should be miles off the table.
As you can tell, there are solid arguments to both sides. Both sides of Stars fans are passionate in their stance and believe it is the best option. And that’s exactly why they aren’t the ones making the decision. Jim Nill is.
There’s a chance that Dallas passes on Karlsson, Heiskanen joins the NHL and becomes an elite defender almost immediately, and all who are for a Karlsson trade look silly. But there is the chance that they let him slip through their fingers and Heiskanen becomes a bit of a project with the league change. Take your pick.
It’s been reported that the Senators are pushing for Heiskanen but Nill won’t budge and is trying other offers. So, at least half of Stars nation is happy right now.
Next: The Stars May Just Be Getting Started With Their Offseason
But at least for now, you know the other side’s argument in addition to your own. Use it wisely in debate over the next few hours or days as we await the final word. Happy Fourth.