The Dallas Stars didn’t have the July 1 that many expected them to. And with that unexpected twist came a drop in their recent Stanley Cup odds.
Going into the 2018 offseason, there was no real certainty as to where the Dallas Stars would land in the NHL ranks next year. On July 1, that potential answer found a way to get even murkier.
If you take a look at the 2017-18 season as a whole, the Stars look like a decent team. When you look past a six-week span between mid-February and the end of March, they look even better. But being a good team with bad luck at the worst time of the year still isn’t a valid argument. After all, there is no argument to being a bad team in the NHL. All one can do is simply play better and fight harder.
As the Stars entered the 2018 offseason earlier than expected yet again, the sounds around the locker room and front office were the same as they have been for years. We’re going to assess everything and make the right choices, We have to be better, and It’s disappointing to be here instead of preparing for the playoffs were used repeatedly.
And then the significant schemes and plans were concocted by fans. Player names to target in trade and free agency were thrown around across social media as a weary and stressed fan base tried to find a solution yet again.
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Everything seemed to be falling into place nicely as the Dallas Stars approached July 1. But once the day rolled around, Nill took things in a significantly different direction.
Instead of signing John Tavares, James Neal, and Carter Hutton, Dallas brought in veterans Blake Comeau, Roman Polak, and Anton Khudobin. All three were depth moves, but turned out to be the only free agency additions that the Stars made (besides the return of Valeri Nichushkin).
That’s not the most impressive offseason class. And when you compare it to the 2017 class (Ben Bishop, Marc Methot, Alexander Radulov), it looks even more fragile.
But while the Stars made a few somewhat necessary depth moves, the league around them shifted considerably. Big name players and targets from the free agency board moved to new destinations. Some influential trades went down (both at the draft and into free agency).
So where does that put the Dallas Stars? Well, it puts them in a bit of a deeper hole, according to Bovada.
Immediately after the Washington Capitals secured their first ever Stanley Cup on June 7, Bovada released the early betting odds on next year’s Cup champion.
Predlines
The Stars, who still boasted a quality group although they missed the postseason, came in at 25/1 odds. They owned the 12th best odds of any team in the NHL, which is pretty good considering their circumstances. Dallas sat just below Chicago and Anaheim and just above San Jose and Los Angeles.
But on July 2, Bovada released an updated list following the offseason frenzy. The Toronto Maple Leafs obviously made the jump from second to first following the acquisition of John Tavares. Teams like Winnipeg and Pittsburgh saw slight drops after staying relatively quiet on day one.
And where did the Dallas Stars fall in all of this? After an unexpected day one, the Stars took a slight dip to 28/1 odds. While it’s not the same caliber of drop as the Ottawa Senators experienced (100/1 to 150/1… ouch), it’s still a drop.
In addition, the Stars fell from 12th best odds to a three-way tie for 15th. That may not seem like an insurmountable gap, but a few teams jumped ahead of Dallas in the process. The St. Louis Blues are one of those teams, going from 40/1 to 25/1 after adding Tyler Bozak and Ryan O’Reilly.
That’s just what happens when you don’t make any significant additions in the offseason while division and conference foes do.
And yes, these are just odds. The thing about odds is that they are only predictions. They could be fairly accurate or completely wrong. The Oilers, Blackhawks, and Stars sat in the 2-4 spots for best odds entering last season and all three ended up missing the playoffs. So there’s a certain level of caution that must be applied when reading into them.
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But it is definitely something to watch out for. The Dallas Stars aren’t in the best shape in terms of odds right now. Does that mean they make another move before the offseason ends? Or do they stand pat and stick to their core?
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There’s a lot of offseason left to decide. But if Dallas does want to make another noteworthy addition, it may need to happen sooner rather than later.