Dallas Stars: Predicting Gemel Smith’s Arbitration Deal

Gemel Smith is the last RFA standing for the Dallas Stars, and they’re headed to arbitration on August 1.

The Dallas Stars were able to sign all of their other RFAs before arbitration, but it looks like Smith’s will take a neutral arbitrator to make the final decision.

There usually ends up being quite a few RFAs that file for arbitration each year, but very few end up actually making it to their court date. Last year, there was just one out of the thirty cases that made it to a final arbitration ruling.

This year, two out of forty-four players have been awarded their contract by an arbitrator with seven cases left to go (including former Dallas Stars defenseman Patrik Nemeth). Both of the other Dallas Stars cases were signed before their court dates.

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Even if Smith and the Stars have their hearing, they can still decide to sign a contract on their own if the arbitrator hasn’t given a decision yet.

Last season, Smith played in 46 games. Over those games, he only accumulated 6 goals and 11 points while averaging 9:26 in ice time. He also played 17 games the season before.

Smith, who is on the smaller side at 5’10” and 190 pounds, has good possession numbers. Last season, he was third on the team in Corsi For percentage (53.9) and fourth in Relative Corsi percentage (3.3). However, with only playing half of the season and less ice time, it’s a small sample size of his play compared to players who played most of or all of the season.

With the Stars, Smith hasn’t played much on special teams. He spends most of his time helping out the third and fourth lines when he isn’t sitting as a healthy scratch.

According to Sean Shapiro, the debate between Smith and the Dallas Stars is about both money and if the contract is one-way or two-way.

The Stars can definitely afford $900,000 on their cap hit, especially after keeping Mattias Janmark to just $2.3M on a short one-year deal. They’re sitting on just over $6M in cap space right now with 20 players on the roster.

The money isn’t likely to be the sticking point here, especially considering how relatively close the two amounts are. The real question is whether or not Smith gets a one-way deal.

A one-way deal gives Smith more opportunities to show his worth by keeping him in the NHL, but it also guarantees him more money. With a two-way deal, he gets paid less if he’s with the AHL team. If the Stars send him down, he’s looking at a much smaller paycheck.

A one-way contract also provides him with more stability. He knows where he’ll be, rather than being shuttled up and down I-35 at the whim of the team as they send him down to the Texas Stars and then call him back up during the season.

Smith can still be sent down to play in the AHL on a one-way contract, but it’s less likely and he’s at least guaranteed the higher salary if it happens.

The only other roster player on a two-way contract at this point is Julius Honka, who is still on his entry-level contract, which is two-way by league rules. Of the other six pending Stars RFAs who received qualifying offers this off-season, only Philippe Desrosiers and Dillon Heatherington got two-way deals. Desrosiers has been playing in the ECHL, but Heatherington got in 6 NHL games last year.

Jason Dickinson had less games played than Smith last year (27 vs 46) and the pair are less than a year apart in age, but Dickinson got a one-way deal worth $875,000. Smith’s asking price isn’t much higher than that and his numbers are better than Dickinson’s.

The Stars put Smith on waivers as ammunition in their arbitration case, but the fact that the Stars agreed to a one-way deal with Dickinson may work against them. Looking at their numbers, perhaps neither of them should’ve gotten one-way deals without another year to prove themselves.

At this point, the difference between the two deals may not seem huge to fans, but it’s a major difference in pay and potential ice time for Smith, so it’s not surprising to see this one go to the arbitrator.

For what it’s worth, I predict they’ll come back with a lower salary than Smith wants but on a one-year, one-way deal and then he can earn a higher contract for next summer. What are your predictions?