Dallas Stars News: Magic Number Shifts Favorably In Playoff Race

It’s that time in the NHL regular season where teams, analysts, and fans check both the standings and playoff race odds on a daily basis. On Monday night, both took a favorable turn for the Dallas Stars. Here’s an updated look at where the Stars stand in the race.

The Dallas Stars entered Monday night in a tight spot in the Western Conference playoff race.

Well, it wasn’t necessarily a tight spot. The Edmonton Oilers have a one percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s a tight spot. The Minnesota Wild have lost four of their last five games and are crumbling down the stretch as their playoff hopes shrink by the day. This is also a tight spot. And the Columbus Blue Jackets, who were hands down the busiest and most aggressive team at the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline, only have a 57 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason. That’s a really tight spot.

So when the Dallas Stars entered Monday night’s game against the Winnipeg Jets with an 86 percent chance of making the playoffs, you probably wouldn’t classify that as a tough situation. And yet, in a way, it was.

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The Stars wrapped up a five-game homestand on a discouraging 1-3-1 note just two nights before. They had watched their playoff odds drop 10 percent (not necessarily a backbreaking subtraction, but not positive by any means, either). The Colorado Avalanche, a team that had been six points back of the Stars just days before, had built up a quick hot streak and moved into the second wild card spot with only one point separating them from Dallas. To top it all off, the Stars were just three points from the playoff cutoff.

To top it all off, they were gearing up for a four-game swing on the road (where they have struggled for much of the 2018-19 season) and had some of the best teams in the West on tap.

That’s a tight spot for a team that watched its playoff hopes crumble in the final 15 games of the 2017-18 regular season.

But, unlike last year’s shortcomings, the Dallas Stars found a way to pull through on Monday. They secured a dominant 5-2 victory in a tough arena against the best team in the Central division.

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The win boosted the Stars to 39-31-6 with 84 points on the season. It helped them regain a multi-game lead on the Avalanche, who now sit three points behind, and boosted their playoff hopes with just six games to go in the campaign.

And if you glanced around the rest of the NHL on Monday, you noticed that Dallas also received some help with the teams clustered closely behind them in the standings.

While the St. Louis Blues defeated the Vegas Golden Knights and retained their three-point lead on third place in the Central, the Nashville Predators downed the Minnesota Wild. With the loss, the Wild fell to five points back of the Stars and remained two points behind Colorado for the final wild card spot.

That’s important at this time of the year because, while the Dallas Stars are still fighting for the best position in the Western Conference standings, they are primarily fighting to simply get into the postseason.

With that being said, it all comes down to a matter of staying one step ahead of the teams around them.

At the moment, the Stars sit in the top wild card spot with 84 points. Sitting close behind is the Avalanche with 81. Just outside of the picture, the Wild and Arizona Coyotes boast 79 points each. And though their odds are incredibly slim, the Chicago Blackhawks are still technically involved with 76 points.

Dallas will qualify for the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs if they can outlast three of the four teams listed above. And that’s where the magic number comes into play.

In order to finish the year in a Western Conference playoff spot, the Stars’ magic number currently sits at 7. That means that any combined number of points gained by Dallas or lost by the team with the ninth-highest potential in points (currently Arizona at 91) will guarantee them a spot in the postseason.

In other words, if Dallas can get to 91 points, they will make the playoffs. Different records like 4-2-0, 3-2-1, and 2-1-3 (you can probably come up with a few more) would all do the trick. On the other hand, the team with the highest potential points total losing points would also do the trick.

Five points helps them stay in front of Minnesota for good, six points gets them in front of Chicago for good, seven points keeps them ahead of Arizona, and nine points keeps them in front of Colorado.

As of right now, the Dallas Stars still own sole control of their own destiny, and that’s important. The Athletic has their odds of making the playoffs at 96 percent, while Sports Club Stats has them at 97.5 percent.

There’s a lot of tricky math still going on and the magic numbers and odds can be tricky at times. But the bottom line is that if the Dallas Stars can pick up seven of the 12 points left on their schedule, they will be playoff bound.

That’s an encouraging note at this point in the regular season.

With the playoff push heating up as the final 11 days of the season play out, the Dallas Stars sit in a really good spot. All that’s left to do is fight for that final 3-4 percent and then solidify their position in the playoff standings.

Seems easy enough, right?