Dallas Stars help Finland create a bit of chaos in men's Olympic hockey standings

As much as Canada and the United States may have the most high-profile rivalry in men's international hockey, Friday provided the latest iteration in what is likely the best rivalry in men's international hockey. And did it ever create intrigue for the rest of the tournament?

Finland, two days after looking like the biggest disappointment in the 2026 Winter Olympics upon losing 4-1 to Slovakia, bounced back in a major way, knocking off arch-rival Sweden, 4-1, in Group B play. Dallas Stars forward Mikko Rantanen gave the franchise its first goal of the game, potting an empty-netter at 19:25 in the third period to seal things. The biggest goal came a period earlier, when Kings winger Joel Armia scored a short-handed goal that put Finland ahead, 3-1. Stars defenseman Esa Lindell's clearance allowed him to pick up the secondary assist.

In the grand scheme of things, the pecking order in the 12-team tournament stayed more or less the same, with Canada and the United States at 1a and 1b as favorites. Sweden and Finland are a half-step behind as the next two. But the paths to making it that far into the single-elimination tournament, which begins after group play, may have been dramatically altered.

Sweden appeared to have a strong shot at winning the group after it beat host Italy in both teams' opening game, and Finland fell to Slovakia. The way Finland played suggested Sweden may have an easier-than-expected time. But there's a reason the Finns are one of the best teams in the world.

Examining Finland, Sweden and Slovakia's path to medal games

Finland's victory on Friday gave the team the best chance at an automatic bye into the quarters. To get it, Finland, of course, must beat Italy, for starters, but Sweden would also need to beat Slovakia on Saturday. Then things get hairy. Or, for those who are not Finns, Swedes, or Slovaks, things get fun.

If the expected results hold, Finland, Sweden, and Slovakia would all finish with six points, tied atop Group B. Goal differential, tied, would be a significant tiebreaker, since each of those three teams beat one opponent and lost to the other. The good news for each is that the group winner will qualify for the automatic bye, and the second-place finisher will also have a strong chance, given that it would likely be the team with the highest positive goal differential among all second-place teams across the groups.

Slovakia winning the group would mean either Finland or Sweden - likely the Swedes - would miss out on a first-round bye, making the path to a potential medal that much longer. The odds, however, still favor the traditional powers. According to "The Athletic," Finland has a 60% chance of making the semifinals, and Sweden's chances are 52%, giving the rivals the third- and fourth-best odds to advance, behind only the two North American teams.

If nothing else, Friday provided the first real creation of drama for the tournament as a whole, and hockey fans are all the better for it.