The Stars made some major headlines last week when news broke that they not only acquired star forward Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes but also signed him to an 8-year extension. While that was great, Stars' GM Jim Nill wasn't done. Shortly after that headline, the Stars announced that they inked Wyatt Johnston to a 5-year extension, solidifying a core of players that will make the Stars perennial Cup contenders. Most Stars fans were anticipating the Johnston extension, but the Rantanen trade and extension came as a (pleasant) surprise to many.
The Stars have a lot of money tied up in their core over the next several seasons. Prior to the Rantanen extension, there were several players that were considered strong candidates to re-sign with the team, however given the recent and sizable financial commitments, that undoubtedly will change the landscape on how Nill fills this team out next season.
The NHL cap is expected to rise to roughly $95.5 million next season. Barring any trades, the Stars already have a projected cap of nearly $90.2 million, leaving approximately $5 million to utilize to round out the rest of the roster. Below, I am going to list the players due for contracts/extensions at the end of this season:
Unrestricted Free Agents
- Jamie Benn (LW)
- Mikael Granlund (C)
- Matt Duchene (C)
- Evgenii Dadonov (RW)
- Colin Blackwell (C)
- Cody Ceci (D)
- Brendan Smith (D)
Restricted Free Agents
- Mavrik Bourque (C)
- Nils Lundkvist (D)
I want to preface the following breakdown by saying that if the Stars win the Stanley Cup, I think there is a good chance that at least a couple players on the unrestricted free agents (UFA) list either retire or join another team for more money since winning the Cup may no longer be their top priority, especially for the older players. Of the seven UFAs listed above, all are 31 or older, four of whom are 34 or older. Below, I will briefly summarize each player and their chances of wearing Victory Green next season.
Jamie Benn (LW)
Undoubtedly the biggest name on this list, and possibly the biggest wild card. I think if the Stars win the Cup, there is a realistic chance Benn retires even if he has a few more seasons left. It would be a fitting ending to a very storied career. If he doesn't retire, regardless if they win the Cup or not, I see him settling for significantly less money just to stay with the only team he has ever known and in a city that has embraced him his entire career, even before he became the leader of the team. If he goes elsewhere, he will just be, "another guy" past his prime. To preserve his image and legacy, my prediction is he stays in Dallas. Based on previous interviews with GM Jim Nill that I have read, it appears he also wants to keep him here till the end too.
Mikael Granlund (C)
Granlund was our biggest acquisition before the Rantanen trade and a player considered an extension candidate; however, given Rantanen & Johnston's recent extensions, Granlund is more or less expendable. I do not see how the Stars can retain him. Given the level of hockey he is playing this season, he can certainly make more money elsewhere. He will walk and find another team to play for next season.
Matt Duchene (C)
A player who embraces the city as much as we embrace him. A fan favorite by plenty. It would be tough not to see these two sides agree on a contract slightly less than what he is making now to keep him in town. He can unquestionably make more money elsewhere, but I think the bond that has developed since he arrived here in 2023 is too strong to break at this stage in his career for a player who appears to like stability and a system in which he is thriving.
Evgenii Dadonov (RW)
This could be the end of the road for "Daddy," given his age and whether he would be okay settling for whatever. If he feels like he has more left in the tank, I think the only way he stays is if he is ok with whatever number the Stars throw at him to help fill out their roster, which will likely be < $1 million. This is assuming we make every attempt to retain Benn and Duchene.
Collin Blackwell (C)
Another player the Stars may retain to fill out their roster simply because of the price. I think an agreement can be made if Blackwell understands his role on the team.
Cody Ceci (D)
A welcomed addition to a banged-up defensive unit, but given his production level, the Stars will likely not be able to retain him.
Brendan Smith (D)
Another player the Stars may try to retain to fill out their roster if Smith is willing to settle for whatever the Stars offer. Otherwise, there will likely be higher offers elsewhere.
Lastly evaluating the restricted free agents (RFAs)
Mavrik Bourque (C)
Viewed as one of the team's future building blocks, I assume the Stars will re-sign him as Bourque sharpens his skillset. However, don't be surprised if offer sheets are submitted due to the salary cap.
Nils Lundkvist (D)
This is a tricky one. The Stars acquired him in 2022, and it's been somewhat of a roller coaster, with flashes of the potential he carries, but marred by injuries. Given the team's financial constraint (and priorities) heading into the offseason, I wouldn't be surprised to see these two parties go in different directions. If the Stars can unload Dumba's contract to a rebuilding team that is looking to meet the minimum cap in exchange for some draft capital, then I think that option would be on the table.
Heading into the off-season, I think most of the decision-making will be contingent on whether the Stars bring home the Cup. If not, I can see some of the more significant pieces staying (e.g. Benn & Duchene) but shuffling some of those "fringe" players like a Dadonov, Blackwell, or Lundkvist. Rantanen's extension closed the door on Granlund & Ceci returning unless Nill moves other players on the roster to create the cap space. Nill is always full of surprises, so I wouldn't be shocked if I am caught off guard with another move he makes to create more cap space. Until then, let's hope the Stars go the distance this postseason and worry about offseason decisions when that time comes.