Blackout Dallas series predictions for the Stars-Oilers series

The Dallas Stars take on the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals later tonight. It will be an exciting matchup between the top two teams remaining in the Western Conference. Joe Pavelski and company look to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2020 when they took on the Tampa Bay Lightning. In each playoff series, the Blackout Dallas staff gives our predictions on how the Stars will do against each of their playoff opponents. Here are our predictions for the Western Conference Finals against the Oilers.

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Mahima Masih- Stars in 6

Woah… we’re halfway there. Returning to the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons, the Dallas Stars look to change the ending. The Stars have faced the toughest path of the playoffs by winning against elite players and recent cup champions. Both series against the Avalanche and Golden Knights demonstrate why this Dallas team should not be disrespected.

The Stars took a moment to settle in during their series against Vegas. But once Wyatt Johnston cracked the Vegas goaltending and Jake Oettinger locked in, they clearly showed why the Stars were the better team. 

Coming off comparatively no break, the Stars had to find gas to finish all third periods. It was a team effort to stifle MacKinnon and Rantanen. But this series perfectly showcased this team’s depth. And when Duchene was the questionable cause of a “no goal” call in Game 6 overtime, it lit a fire that led to him winning the series in double overtime. 

You can’t beat the Oilers with a few elite players. McDavid and Draisaitl will need to be shut down by the whole team, just like they did against Colorado. Miro Heiskanen always does an exemplary job stifling McDavid, but the playoffs raise the stakes. Dallas’ defense will have to work together, and thank goodness we have Chris Tanev. 

So yes, the Stars are facing probably the scariest duo in the league, but Dallas is built better from top to bottom. Not having Roope Hintz is a detriment, but there’s enough talent to step up in his place. Jake Oettinger is no doubt the better goalie entering this series. The Stars are also coming off of rest — something they haven’t had in the playoffs. 

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Samantha King-Stars in 5

While Edmonton has a solid top line and undeniable star power, Dallas has greater depth. With recent rest, the Stars have finally caught a break from the past two hard-earned series. The team has already proven its ability to have its top lines shut down and still come out victorious with other lines chipping in.

If they can shut down McDavid's assist potential and speed, as well as the other scorers on the Oilers, using their strengthened defense from the trade deadline,  the Stars will have the upper hand. Oettinger has been a solid force to reckon with in net, and this series could be no different, given his increasingly impressive playoff experience. 

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Nick Lacoste- Stars in 6

Without injury and clarity on players like Roope Hintz, the Stars defeated the past two cup champs in 13 hard-fought games. One key against Edmonton will be line matching.

It’s no secret that the Oilers are top-heavy, with players like McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Nugent-Hopkins being the top scorers for the Oilers. The opportunity for Dallas to trump Edmonton comes from the depth and share of ice time. Matt Duchene said it himself in the Game 6 post-game interview on TNT: “A little less for a lot more.” The buy-in from Dallas has pushed egos aside and focused on team success, and this selfless message has guided them past two of the biggest playoff opponents you’ll ever face. Dallas manages the ice time of their key forwards because they are comfortable with depth, while other teams need their stars like Nathan MacKinnon to play upwards of 30 minutes to keep up.

The ‘lines in the blender’ strategy has also allowed new trios to blossom. In one game together against Colorado because of injuries to players like Roope Hintz, Marchment-Pavelski-Duchene had the following 5v5 numbers (Game 6, 12 mins. together):

• Shot attempts = 24-4
• Shots on goal = 11-2
• Goals = 1-0 (series winner)
• Expected Goals % = 82.5%

It would be silly not to try these three together again. The Stars’ lineup as of Period 2 in Game 6 was:

Robertson-Johnston-Stankoven

Marchment-Pavelski-Duchene

Benn-Seguin-Dadonov

Faksa-Steel-Smith

Heiskanen-Harley

Lindell-Tanev

Suter-Petrovic

Whether Nils Lundkvist, Mavrik Bourque, or Lian Bichsel get games this playoffs, this lineup is versatile and tight-knit, able to mix players around and still find success. Any first punches coming from Edmonton’s offense this series can be countered strongly with right hooks from Johnston, Benn, Duchene, and even Dadonov, who is finally healthy.

I’d argue that Dallas has been more battle-tested against Vegas and Colorado than Edmonton was against Los Angeles and Vancouver. It should be an exciting series between two relatively healthy squads.

Blackout Dallas Series Predictions: Brian Sweet-Stars in 5

Don't expect this series to go the distance because the Stars have the depth to eliminate the Oilers. This was the best-case scenario for the Stars if they wanted a shot of making it to the Stanley Cup Finals. If the Vancouver Canucks were the Stars' opponent for the Western Conference Finals, I would be writing a completely different playoff prediction than the one I'm currently writing.

This is the first time the Stars are playing the Oilers in the postseason since 2003. Things have changed in 21 years for Edmonton, as they have one of the best players of this generation on their roster. Connor McDavid has a nation on his shoulders coming into this series against the Stars. That could be dangerous for the Stars, but it shouldn't be a long-term factor.

The Stars will be without Roope Hintz for game one later tonight as he's still recovering from his injury. His absence shouldn't be a factor since the Stars won two out of three games against the Avalanche with Hintz out of the lineup. The Stars have plenty of scorers, such as Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven, who can pick up the offensive production with Hintz out of the lineup.

Jake Oettinger will be another factor against the Oilers. Oettinger has played lights out the past two series and could steal the series against the Oilers on the road. He has been a road villain in these playoffs. It's like having a home-ice advantage on the road. While the Oilers had a great second half of the season, the Stars are better prepared for this series. I expect the Stars to make quick work of the Oilers.

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