It's been quite a start to the regular season for Jake Oettinger, who currently owns a 5-1 record and the second-best GAA and second-best SV% amongst goaltenders who have net-minded at least five games this season.
The biggest headline, however, is the head-turning 8-year/$66 million contract extension he signed mid-October, cementing him as the goalie of the future for the Stars. With big money comes big expectations, and given Oettinger's track record thus far, there is little reason to believe he won't be able to fulfill that.
Oettinger had a relatively "down" year last season, coming off an off-season surgery. However, he appears to have returned to form based on his performance in the post-season last year and how impermeable he has been this season. On October 18th, BetMGM ranked Oettinger 5th in the Power Rankings, giving him a 10% chance of taking home the hardware.
Now that the calendar has flipped to November, we have nearly a month of hockey in the books. Since October 18th, Oettinger's record is 2-1 with a GAA of 2.06 and SV% of 0.924 per StatMuse. While those two stats are below his current season average, Otter has been that good to remain locked in as the second-best netminder who has started at least five games. That begs the question, who is number one?
Regarding GAA, New York Islanders goaltender Iyla Sorokin ranks ahead of Oettinger, with a formidable 1.80 GAA through 5 games. When looking at SV%, the Anaheim Ducks young goaltender Lukas Dostal owns an absurd 0.945 SV% through 8 games (not to mention a 1.99 GAA). The name is out: Dostal is having a breakout year so far, and if he maintains this level of effectiveness, that could entirely change the Vezina Trophy competition landscape.
He is arguably the front-runner in what is still a very young season. The biggest question is whether or not he can maintain this level of performance. Regression will occur, but even with that, he could still very well remain in consideration if the return of John Gibson doesn't take away too much time between the pipes, which is a strong possibility despite Dostal's strong start.
Aside from Sorokin and Dostal, other names who are in the upper ranks so far this season (who have played at least five games) include the reigning winner Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, New York Rangers Igor Shesterkin, Nashville Predators Juuse Saros, and Tampa Bay Lightning Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Given Oettinger's track record leading up to this point, he is firmly entrenched in the running. The talent is there, and it's just fending off the competition. The Dallas Stars have never had a goaltender win this award, with Ben Bishop being the most recent player to come ever so close back in 2018-2019 (runner-up to Andrei Vasilevskiy). There hasn't been a back-to-back award winner since Martin Brodeur did it in 2007-2008, so Hellebuyck will have his work cut out for him.
To conclude this segment, below are my Top 5 Vezina Trophy Candidates:
1. Jake Oettinger (I think this will be the year!)
2. Connor Hellebuyck (reigning winner and still at the top of his game)
3. Igor Shesterkin (former winner and in a contract year)
4. Lukas Dostal (I think he will end up taking over as the lead goaltender, but regression is likely)
5. Ilya Sorokin (2022-2023 runner-up and is off to a great start this season)