Dallas Stars Facing Surprisingly Red-Hot Colorado Avalanche Tonight
By Josh Clark
The regular season rolls on for the Dallas Stars as tonight in Big D. This time around, they welcome in the biggest surprise team in the NHL so far this year, the Colorado Avalanche.
Going into the 2017-18 regular season, the Central Division seemed like a tossup for the most part. The Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, and Chicago Blues all seemed to have a legitimate claim at supremacy.
While the top of the division seemed to be open for the taking, the bottom of the division seemed to be a lock.
The Colorado Avalanche were expected to claim dead last in the division for a second year, and the expectations were properly justified.
That’s because last year, the Avalanche were flat out terrible. They posted a record of 22-56-4 with 48 points, plotting them 31 points (16 wins) away from the next closest team, which happened to be Dallas. And you probably thought that Dallas was the definition of bad last year.
Dallas Stars
The Avs did very little to improve their team over the offseason and seemed destined for another year of implosion and depression.
But that hasn’t happened. In fact, it’s been the exact opposite so far. While the Stars have struggled to get out of the gate this year, the Avalanche are flying high.
Colorado is currently 4-1-0 on the year. The Avs are first in the Central Division and have an impressive goal differential of +8. They have bested the New York Rangers, Boston Bruins (twice), and Anaheim Ducks. They average 3.60 goals per game and have the fourth-best GAA at 2.00.
Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is off and running with a 3-0-0 record and will likely get the start against Dallas on Saturday.
At the beginning of the season, this game probably seemed like an automatic two points for a powerful team like Dallas. But now things are tilting in a different direction. Will Dallas be able to pull out the win? Or will they drop to an unlucky and worrisome 1-4-0 record?
This will by no means be an easy home game for the Dallas Stars, but it is very much a winnable game. Here’s how.
Where art thou, offensive power?
Since the beginning of the Jim Nill era, the Dallas Stars have primarily been known for one strength: their offense.
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The Stars have struggled with defense and goaltending at times, but there has yet to be a glaring lack of scoring. Names like Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Jason Spezza have helped carry the Stars for the last few seasons on offense along with reliable and skilled depth scorers.
Through four games this season, the offense seems to be the only thing holding Dallas back. While the defense and goaltending have been primarily reliable, the offense cannot seem to find any consistency. They are putting up the fifth most shots of any team in the league, but are second to last in goals for. Something isn’t adding up.
If Dallas is going to win this game, they have to put up more than just one or two goals. That will require solid possession, converting on chances, and depth scoring.
Break Varlamov early
Semyon Varlamov has never been considered a subpar goaltender. Instead, he’s been more of an inconsistent goaltender. Over the past four years, his save percentage has consistently dipped (.927, .921, .914, .898).
Colorado Avalanche
That’s not the case so far this season. Varlamov is undefeated with a .945 save percentage and 1.67 GAA. He owns the fifth best save percentage among goaltenders that have played at least three games this year.
If the Stars want to win this game, they need to rattle Varlamov’s confidence early. They have scored first in all but one game this year but have struggled to keep the pressure on after getting a 1-0 lead. If Dallas can break Varlamov early and continue to pressure him with chances, they could shake his composure and take control.
Stop the penalties and silly mistakes
This is a two-parter, but the two parts are intertwined. Dallas is 11th in the NHL in terms of penalties taken at 20. That’s an average of five penalties per game, which is unacceptable.
The Stars are wasting potential offensive possession time in each game because they are shorthanded. The silly penalties have to stop and the Stars must start playing smarter, specifically in their own zone.
The Stars’ loss to St. Louis was due to bad defensive mistakes early in the game that led to an early 3-0 deficit. The loss to Nashville on Thursday night was due to bad penalties that gave the Predators extra chances on the power play.
If Dallas can play a sound game defensively and avoid the penalties or missed assignments, they could win this game with ease. After all, the Stars are a much better team than their record shows.
The Colorado offense is red-hot, the defense (with former Star Patrik Nemeth) is playing a shutdown style, and the goaltending is on a hot streak. They are undeniably better than people expected, but they aren’t unbeatable.
Next: Examining The Stars' First Week Of 2017-18 Season
Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. Let’s see if Dallas can avoid a depressing 1-4-0 record and get back on the winning path.