Dallas Stars Should Approach Possible John Tavares Deal with Extreme Caution

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 10: John Tavares #91 of the New York Islanders skates against the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center on November 10, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 10: John Tavares #91 of the New York Islanders skates against the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center on November 10, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images)

Free Agency begins in a little over a day, meaning the most chaotic time of the offseason is almost upon us. While it’s always a treat to see how teams choose to navigate the plethora of free agents available, it can be a money pit.

The Dallas Stars hosted the NHL Entry Draft for the first time last weekend and soon they’ll be making offers to free agents. Current New York Islander’s center John Tavares has been the center of attention with July 1 right around the corner.

While he’s a great hockey player, there are a few things to tread carefully around.

Price

With Dallas reported talking to him for the longest of any of the teams he spoke with, it seems like he’s interested in coming to play in Big D. Talent-wise, that would be great for the team and the market. He’s a big name player with a lot of speed and scoring power. He’d be an instant fan favorite and would sell a lot of jerseys.

More from Analysis

But free agents always come with strings. Tavares is expected to make double-digit millions for upwards of five years. That’s a lot of resources allocated to one forward with no guarantee of a return.

Yes, Tavares will undoubtedly be an offensive powerhouse regardless of what sweater he’s sporting. However, he’s expensive enough to make concerns extremely relevant. An injury or bad season makes signing him a very controversial decision.

And with Tyler Seguin‘s upcoming renewal talks surely underway, it might be too expensive to have both.

Assimilation

The tale of free agency is often a sad one. A player signs a huge contract with the hope being that they’ll absolutely kill it on their new team, only to be underwhelming — Brad Richards with the New York Rangers ring a bell?

Inking Tavares could sink Dallas into a long-term commitment they’re not at all ready for. This team wants to be Stanley Cup Champions in the near future, and signing Tavares would follow the Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks’ set-up of being all-in with a few forwards.

And that approach has obviously put banners up in both respective buildings, but it’s not sustainable. If the Stars want to be consistently competitive, committing to too long of a deal with a guy who is already in his late 20s could prove disastrous. Look at Chicago — they’ve committed $21 million to two forwards who are arguably on the decline.

It’s a big risk with a lot of financial repercussions. However, the point of taking a risk is for the reward. If Tavares turns out to be as good as he’s expected — or even as great as he was with the Islanders — that might prove worth it.

Next: Dallas Stars' Hunt for Tavares Continues

Bottom Line

Really, it all comes down to the direction Jim Nill wants to take this team. Being that this league is results-based, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to elect to dive in and sign Tavares if the deal is there. Just don’t be surprised if it backfires.