Dallas Stars: Assessing the 2019-20 Cap Situation After Seguin’s Deal

After months of speculation and waiting, the Dallas Stars finally signed Tyler Seguin to a new contract just in time for training camp to start. The deal will have a major impact on the salary cap once it kicks in next summer.

Seguin’s new deal with the Dallas Stars is worth $9.85M AAV for 8 seasons, and it will be the highest on the team, just above Jamie Benn’s.

With that in mind, let’s consider what the salary cap looks like right now for the 2019-20 season.

Coming Off the Books

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Next season will see some relief for the Dallas Stars on a couple of bigger contracts.

Most fans will be happy to see Jason Spezza’s $7.5M and Marc Methot’s $4.9M gone, especially as the young players in the system are ready to get their own contract extensions. Those two contracts will provide a lot of money for some of the up-and-coming guys.

There are a few smaller contracts that’ll go away as well. Roman Polak’s one-year, $1.3M deal will be gone, though there’s always a chance he signs an extension depending on how things shake out this year.

The best cap relief in some ways will be Antti Niemi’s $1.5M buyout. The buyout was a logical choice for the Stars, who desperately needed to shake up the goaltending situation. However, it’s always great to stop paying a guy who isn’t playing for you and who has already been replaced. It’s free money back to the cap that doesn’t need to be replaced by another player on the roster.

Staying the Same

With Seguin’s deal done now, most of the core guys on the team are locked into longer contracts already. Benn’s at $9.5M until 2025, which is high but absolutely affordable for the team. John Klingberg’s contract is the biggest steal in the league at just $4.25M until 2022.

Nill’s work during the 2017 off-season was good, bringing on the newcomers at a good price. Alexander Radulov’s deal is a reasonable $6.25M until 2022, while Ben Bishop’s is $4.92M until 2023.

The Stars locked down a lot of their younger guys for a while with Radek Faksa, Valeri Nichushkin, and Devin Shore until 2020 and Stephen Johns until 2021. Raksa, Shore, and Johns are under $2.5M, and Nichushkin is under $3M.

With the younger guys, there’s Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz who are still on entry-level deals for a little bit longer. Heiskanen will play in the NHL this fall, but Hintz may not.

There’s also Tyler Pitlick, who is on a fantastic $1M AAV contract which lasts through the end of 2019-20 as well.

Martin Hanzal’s contract is the only one that sticks out horribly right now, though there are a few questionable deals and ones that may go bad before the end of this season.

Overall, the Stars aren’t in a bad place.

Needing Extensions

The Dallas Stars are currently looking at about $56M for next year’s cap right now, give or take some depending on who gets called up or sent down, and who gets traded or signed. The current salary cap is $79.5M and we don’t know how much it’ll go up by yet. That means the Stars will probably have at least $25M in cap space to work with.

Mattias Janmark will need an extension after his two-year bridge deal expires at the end of the season, and he should command a nice raise. He’s already at $2.3M, so it won’t be as much of a hit to the salary cap as it would be if he was on an ELC, but it will still need to be done. Brett Ritchie and Gemel Smith will also need new deals, as will Jason Dickinson and Remi Elie, though none of them should get major payouts unless they have amazing seasons.

On the defensive end, Esa Lindell’s $2.2M deal is expiring. He should get a decent payday, especially as he’s been playing well on the top pairing with Klingberg. Julius Honka’s ELC is also up next summer, but that will depend greatly on his play this season. Dillon Heatherington’s one-year, two-way deal will also end, and he may make the jump to the NHL full-time at that point with Methot and Polak leaving.

In addition to extensions, the Stars need to replace a few guys, including Spezza, Methot, and Polak. All three roster spots could easily be replaced by prospects who’ll be ready to come up next summer. However, the Stars will have the money to go after a free agent or two next summer, if there’s someone that catches their eye.

Technically, both Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin are set to be free agents next summer, though that most likely won’t be the case come July 1. There’s plenty of time for extensions to be signed and trades to be made, but the Stars could end up going after someone like Jeff Skinner, Jordan Eberle, or Marcus Johansson.

The Stars kept things cheap in free agency this year, so they’re in good position on the salary cap for next summer, but that will look silly in the long-run if they miss the playoffs for a third consecutive season.