Dallas Stars: Examining Their Competition In Stanley Cup Playoff Race

The Blues’ Final Stretch

Record: 42-28-8, 92 points, 41 ROW

Current position: Third place in Central division

Playoff odds (via Sports Club Stats): CLINCHED

Around two months ago, the St. Louis Blues looked to be left for dead. They sat at the bottom of the Central division and watched as the gap between them and a playoff spot grew bigger by the day. They had spent the first half of the regular season firing their head coach and bringing in an interim, quickly losing faith in starting goaltender Jake Allen, and falling well short of the preseason expectations that had been set for them.

Bleedin' Blue

But then, the turnaround occurred. And, unlike most turnarounds in the NHL that involve a five-game win streak over two weeks, this one was much more influential.

From January 23 to February 20, the Blues didn’t lose a game. That translates to 11 consecutive victories.

Their offense turned a corner, the defense shored up some of its inconsistencies, and the goaltending of rookie Jordan Binnington helped the Blues skyrocket. They escaped the Western Conference cellar and quickly pushed themselves back into the playoff race.

For the past month, the Stars and Blues have battled for third place in the division. Dallas is 2-0-0 against St. Louis since Feb. 21 and finished their season series with a 3-1-0 advantage, but the Blues still hold third place as of March 19.

At the moment, a playoff berth seems almost absolute for the Blues. Their odds hover around 99 percent in most simulations and it would take a catastrophic meltdown (we’re talking losing at least seven of their final ten games) to not even claim a wild card spot.

Here’s how the final stretch maps out for St. Louis.

4/1 vs. Colorado, 4/3 @ Chicago, 4/4 vs. Philadelphia, 4/6 vs. Vancouver

According to Power Rankings Guru, the Blues have the second-easiest strength of schedule remaining. With only two of their final ten opponents currently holding playoff spots, it looks as though St. Louis is all but set for a trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

But where will they end up in the picture? That’s a debate for another day.

The Stars’ Final Stretch

Record: 41-31-7, 89 points, 40 ROW

Current position: First wild card spot

Playoff odds (via Sports Club Stats): 99.8 percent

The Dallas Stars have been stuck on a rollercoaster for much of the 2018-19 regular season.

After starting the year with a new head coach, new players, and a new scheme, the Stars have faced a mountain of trials through 72 games. From early season injuries to key players, to front office drama, and winning streaks combated quickly by losing streaks, it’s been quite the ride to witness.

More from Blackout Dallas

• Dallas Stars Traverse City Tournament: Who had great performances?
• Grushnikov and Stankoven lead Dallas Stars to 6-3 win over Columbus
• Dallas Stars prospects look to wrap up tournament with a win
• Burn the tapes: Dallas Stars prospects lose 5-1 to Toronto Maple Leafs
• Dallas Stars look to continue success today against the Maple Leafs

But here they sit on March 19. They are eight games above .500, sit in the first wild card spot, and own playoff odds above 90 percent.

That’s due to a handful of things. For starters, they are 5-2-1 in the month of March and 8-4-1 in their past 13 games. They are getting hot at the right time of the season and winning important games after struggling through the middle part of February. They have posted an impressive record against the Central division so far and are finding ways to stay in the middle of the race.

Their goaltending is running the show, with Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin combining for the second-highest NHL save percentage at .923. And, considering the Dallas Stars own the third-lowest goals per game average, strong goaltending is a critical need.

As of right now, the Stars and Blues are the realistic contenders for third in the Central. They have flip-flopped with each other over the past few weeks and will likely continue doing so in the final 10 games. But with a handful of other teams trailing close behind the top wild card spot, Dallas must keep an eye on both directions.

Here’s how the Stars’ final leg of the race looks.

4/2 vs. Philadelphia, 4/5 @ Chicago, 4/6 vs. Minnesota

That’s the 20th-most difficult remaining schedule in the NHL according to Power Rankings Guru. Only three of their final 10 opponents currently sit in a playoff spot, so the schedule seems to favor their final trek.

But with the way the Stars’ season has gone up to this point, there’s no point in relying on the probable. Each game boasts a different opportunity to get ahead or fall behind. The Dallas Stars know that and are preparing for each one in the same fashion.

There’s nothing to take for granted at this point in the season and the Stars are keeping their sights set on the next game.

“What’s been has been,” said forward Mattias Janmark back on March 9. “There’s a new game ahead and we have to look forward to the next game. If we were to lose some games in a row, we have to just do the same and focus on the next game. We can’t afford to look back; we have to win the next game every time. There’s always two points on the line and it’s huge for the playoff race, so we have to look forward.”

As of right now, though, the scales seem to be tipping in their favor.

The Coyotes’ Final Stretch

Record: 38-33-8, 84 points, 34 ROW

Current position: 9th place in Western Conference

Playoff odds (via Sports Club Stats): 23.6 percent

It’s March 19, 2019 and the Arizona Coyotes currently hold possession of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. How’s that for a story?

For the past half-decade, the Coyotes have been stuck near the bottom of just about every major NHL category. Their offense has struggled, their defense has been porous, and their goaltending hasn’t had any sort of consistency to cling to since parting ways with Mike Smith. As a result, the Coyotes haven’t been to the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2012 and have finished all but one of the past six seasons below .500.

Puck Prose

And yet, they currently own a playoff spot. After adding players like Alex Galchenyuk, Derek Stepan, and Michael Grabner in the offseason and forming a confident goaltending carousel within the organization, the Coyotes are hanging tough in the wild card race.

Sure, there have been some ups and some downs in their push. But with the ninth-best defense, second-best penalty kill, and a strong goaltending tandem to balance out their shaky offense and power play, Arizona is making the push all the more interesting this season.

A loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night pulled them back and put a small damper on the 10-2-1 streak that they had been riding, but their standing has yet to change.

Here’s how their final stretch pans out.

4/2 vs. Los Angeles, 4/4 @ Vegas, 4/6 vs. Winnipeg

Their strength of schedule remaining is slightly stronger than the Stars’ schedule, with three of their nine opponents currently holding playoff spots. But if the Coyotes are going to make it into the playoffs, they simply have to worry about the teams below them (i.e. Minnesota, Colorado, and Chicago).

Considering they have each of those teams on their schedule one last time in the final three weeks, one of those games could ultimately decide their destiny.

It’s all about the mentality in Arizona right now. Can their primarily young lineup boast the right mindset down the final stretch and outdo the rest of the teams in the race? We’ll find out.

The Rest of the Western Conference Field

Once you step outside of the Western Conference playoff picture, there’s a cluster of teams trying to stay in the race. Those teams include the Minnesota Wild, Colorado Avalanche, and Chicago Blackhawks.

Let’s take a look at where each one stands and how their final stretches pan out while also taking a look at their situation.

Minnesota Wild

Record: 36-34-9, 81 points, 35 ROW

Current position: 10th place in Western Conference

Playoff odds (via Sports Club Stats): 0.7 percent

There’s an argument to be made that the Minnesota Wild are the most consistent team in the Central division since realignment occurred in 2013. That argument is primarily rooted in the fact that the Wild are the only Central team to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the past five seasons.

Eyes On Isles

Success in the postseason, however, tells a different story. Minnesota has yet to get past the second round of the playoffs since 2013 and has been eliminated in the first round in each of their past three trips.

Right now, they find themselves one point out of the second wild card spot. After starting the season on a relatively strong note, they hit a bit of a skid in January and February and have been fighting to stay afloat over the past month. They currently sit at 3-3-3 for the month of March and will need a late push if they want to keep their postseason streak alive. But it won’t be easy.

Here’s a look at their final slate.

4/2 vs. Winnipeg, 4/4 vs. Boston, 4/6 @ Dallas

That’s the strongest remaining schedule of any NHL team according to Power Rankings Guru. All but one of the Wild’s final nine opponents currently sit in a playoff spot, with many of them still battling for position and in need of valuable points. That could make for a rough final stretch.

Bruce Boudreau guaranteed that the Wild would qualify for the playoffs back on Feb. 15, 2019. As of right now, though, that guarantee looks to be in jeopardy.

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 36-29-13, 85 points, 34 ROW

Current position: Second wild card spot

Playoff odds (via Sports Club Stats): 75.7 percent

Much like the Dallas Stars, the Colorado Avalanche have been through quite an intriguing journey this season.

Mile High Sticking

After finishing the 2017-18 year on a dominant note and qualifying for the playoffs, the Avalanche started on a strong note in 2018-19. But over the past few months, they’ve hit a pretty significant road block. They went 0-3-3 to start the month of February and put themselves in a tight spot for the final month of the season.

So far in March, they are 3-5-0 and find themselves four points out of the final spot in a crowded race.

But with the highest-scoring line in the NHL running their offense, how have they fallen into such a tight spot? Their problems are heavily rooted in their goaltending, with Semyon Varlamov and Philipp Grubauer combining for a save percentage of .902 on the year. The defense has been average, while their penalty kill owns one of the worst percentages in the league.

With 10 games to go, here’s how the Avalanche’s final schedule pans out.

4/1 @ St. Louis, 4/2 vs. Edmonton, 4/4 vs. Winnipeg, 4/6 @ San Jose

That’s a tough slate for any team to bear (the 10th-toughest in the NHL), but it’s even tougher for a team already multiple games behind in the race for the final wild card spot.

The Avalanche need a strong surge and they need it now.

Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 34-33-11, 79 points, 32 ROW

Current position: 11th place in Western Conference

Playoff odds (via Sports Club Stats): 0.2 percent

Rounding out the hunt is the Chicago Blackhawks.

Like St. Louis, the Blackhawks seemed to be stuck in the mud at the midway point in the season. And, while their surge wasn’t as impressive or influential as the Blues’ push, it was enough to keep them in the fight.

Da Windy City

But the odds aren’t looking great for the Hawks. Although they are 5-0-1 in their past six contests, the rest of the Western Conference isn’t doing them any favors. In other words, everyone is riding a hot streak to at least stay afloat. This is where Chicago’s slow start to the year will likely come back to hurt them.

Even so, the Blackhawks are only four points back of the final wild card spot and have starting goalie Corey Crawford back for the final stretch. After missing over two months with a concussion, Crawford returned on Feb. 27 and has been a critical key in the Blackhawks staying alive. The goalie is 6-1-1 with a .923 save percentage since returning to the lineup.

But even Crawford’s return cannot mask some of the Blackhawks’ glaring inefficiencies. Chicago currently boasts the worst goals against average (3.64 GA/GP) and worst penalty kill percentage (73.1 percent) in the NHL and cannot seem to win a game unless they score at least four or five goals.

The Dallas Stars had a similar problem back in the 2014-15 season and ended up missing the playoffs by a handful of points. The Blackhawks might be destined for the same fate.

Here’s how their final road maps out.

4/1 vs. Winnipeg, 4/3 vs. St. Louis, 4/5 vs. Dallas, 4/6 @ Nashville

With Chicago already being at the bottom of the pile in terms of challengers, one or two losses could very well do them in. That’s what makes the games against Colorado and Arizona all the more important over the next week.

The race is shaping up to be an entertaining one. It’s been fun to follow for the past month and will  likely only get more congested and perplexing as the final three weeks roll on.

Only 18 games separate the Dallas Stars and the rest of the NHL from the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. How will the final stretch pan out? That’s anyone’s guess.