Dallas Stars: Examining Their First Round Matchup Against Predators

Comparing The Offenses

For many hockey fans, fast-paced offense and high-octane scoring are what often define whether a game is exciting or not. And if that’s the standard you tend to use, this series may very well be considered a “boring” one.

That’s because neither of these teams are built around making a heavy offensive impact. The Stars haven’t been a goal-scoring threat since early November and the Predators didn’t receive much scoring outside of their top line for the majority of the 2018-19 season.

With that being said, though, the offensive side of the game could very well be what determines this series. Which team has a better chance of taking control on the offensive ropes?

The Stars’ Side

Goals scored: 209

Goals per game: 2.55 (28th in NHL)

Shots on goal per game: 30.7 (21st in NHL)

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The Dallas Stars are not an offense-first team. We know that from the numbers they posted this year. We know that from their ranking among the NHL offenses. We could also know that by simply watching one or two of their games from the 2018-19 season.

Their offense didn’t score a goal in the first period in 40 of their 82 games this season. Only three Stars crossed the 20-goal and 50-point thresholds this year. And while their offense puts up a fair amount of shots per game, they just haven’t found the back of the net as often as in years past.

Their goal margins by period help tell the story of their season. The Dallas Stars boasted a -16 differential in first periods (with only 39 total goals scored on the year), a +20 in the second period,  and a +4 in the third period. In other words, the offense starts slow, kicks in during the middle frame, and typically does enough to hold on in the third period.

But scoring goals isn’t a part of who the Stars are this season. It’s not in their DNA. Instead, it’s a defense-first approach that lives on winning low-scoring battles. In games where the Stars allowed 3+ goals to their opponent this season, they posted a record of 9-23-5.

So, defense is key.

Blackhawk Up

The Dallas offensive effort was spearheaded by Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov this season. Seguin posted 33 goals and hit the 80-point mark for just the second time in his career with the Stars while Radulov scored a career high 29 goals and tied a career high in points with 72, including a late-season surge that helped the Stars push into the playoffs. They also received some scattered and inconsistent help from the bottom of their lineup, but it wasn’t enough to get the Dallas offense going. Then again, that wasn’t the goal.

“Sticking to what we are,” said Montgomery about the team’s consistency on defense after a win on Feb. 1. “I mean, that’s what we are, right? If you have good defense, you’re always gonna be in every game. And if the goal scoring comes, we’re going to start winning games by a couple of goals to several goals. And it will come, because if you play that way, we were just missing on a couple of odd-man rushes in every period.”

On top of that, the Dallas defensemen played a heavy role in the offensive attack. There are 38 combined goals among defenders still on the Stars’ roster. Miro Heiskanen (12 goals), Esa Lindell (11 goals), and John Klingberg (10 goals) became the first defensive trio in Dallas Stars history to record at least 10 goals each in a season. The blue line stayed active in the offensive attack and helped push it along through low points in the year.

But there is one wild card for this Dallas Stars team that could play a large role in getting their offense to a level that Nashville hasn’t seen this year. That’s Mats Zuccarello.

Since acquiring the forward from the New York Rangers on Feb. 23, Zuccarello has only played in two games with Dallas. But in less than 32 combined minutes of playing time in a Stars uniform, he has one goal, three points, and a +3 rating. He’s provided a significant boost of speed and energy to the Stars’ attack both on offense and on the power play. With his presence in the top six, the Dallas Stars could be in store to reach a new height in the offensive zone during their playoff run.

That remains to be seen, though.

The Predators’ Side

Goals scored: 236

Goals per game: 2.88 (19th in NHL)

Shots on goal per game: 32.7 (10th in NHL)

Predlines

In each of the past three seasons, the Nashville Predators have finished in the top half of the NHL ranks in terms of goals scored per game. This season, they finished 19th. What happened?

Their offense began suffering from the same problem that the 2017-18 Dallas Stars endured, being the “one-line syndrome.”

For much of the 2018-19 season, the Predators relied heavily on their top line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson to carry the load in the offensive zone. The trio combined for 86 of the 236 goals scored by Nashville this season, which translates to 36.4 percent.

The syndrome became more prevalent as the season went along, giving Nashville a glaring need for help in their depth scoring. And so, they added Wayne Simmonds, Brian Boyle, and Mikael Granlund at the 2019 Trade Deadline.

But the Predators are a lot like the Stars in the fact that their defense helps churn their scoring along. Their top four (Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis) combined for 39 goals during the 2018-19 campaign and aided in prodding the offensive attack forward.

And while the Nashville offense isn’t as dominant as it has been in years past, they still own a commendable balance within their lineup. Seven forwards scored at least 10 goals during the regular season, giving the Predators a multi-line attack to use at different times.

How often all three lines clicked at the same time is a different story.

ADVANTAGE: NASHVILLE

This one is difficult. For one, both teams struggled to score consistently at various points throughout the year. On top of that, both clubs rely on their defense to assist in getting the puck in the back of the net. The season series was also deadlocked at 14-14 in terms of goals scored and there are some questions to be answered about how both offenses will execute in the postseason.

But if we have to pick one, the Predators probably own an advantage when it comes to pressure in the offensive zone and scoring power.

Comparing The Defenses

But who needs offense anyways? If you’re a fan of gritty, low-scoring, and defensive hockey, then this is the series for you.

Both the Stars and Predators finished in a top-five spot in goals against per game in the NHL this year and relied on their strong defensive efforts to push them into good standing in the playoff picture.

After all, defense wins championships, right?

The Stars’ Side

Goals against: 200

Goals against per game: 2.44 (2nd in NHL)

Shots against per game: 31.6 (16th in NHL)

Sports Dallas Fort-Worth

The Dallas Stars and solid, sound defense. Solid, sound defense and the Dallas Stars. For much of the past decade, these two terms have not been synonymous.

From the Stars’ massive overhaul in 2013 to now, their defensive numbers have followed a skewed and inconsistent path. In 2013-14, the Dallas defense put up average numbers and was good enough to help them get into the playoffs. One season later, they were one of the worst defensive units in the NHL, averaging 3.13 goals against per game.

In 2015-16, the blue line was a relative strength that contributed enough alongside a dominant Dallas offense to secure the top seed in the Western Conference. But just one year later, they owned the second-worst defensive unit in the NHL with a 3.17 goals against average.

The past two years, however, have been centered around defensive dominance. In 2017-18, Ken Hitchcock turned an ailing Dallas defense into a top-ten unit in the league. This season, Jim Montgomery and staff took it a step further.

The Stars finished the 2018-19 season with the second fewest goals allowed in the league. Their defense played with composure, structure, and focus for much of the year and turned the Dallas Stars’ identity into a defensive one.

And while the numbers and performances are impressive, they aren’t the most impressive part. Instead, the most impressive part is the trials that the Dallas blue line endured on their way to success during the 2018-19 campaign.

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The Stars used a franchise record 14 defensemen during the regular season. Setting that record wasn’t by choice, though.

In the first two months, Dallas was dealt a heavy dose of adversity in terms of defensive injuries. Stephen Johns missed the entire year with post-traumatic headaches. Marc Methot played in just nine games before being shut down with another knee injury. John Klingberg broke his hand while blocking a shot in early November and missed six weeks. Connor Carrick missed two months with an ankle injury and never seemed to fully recover from it before being dealt at the 2019 Trade Deadline. That’s four of the Stars’ top-six defenders missing extended amounts of time.

But they survived. Esa Lindell stepped up and turned in a career year. Miro Heiskanen did everything that hockey fans expected him to do and then some on his way to a stellar rookie campaign. Roman Polak silenced all doubt from Stars fans with an impressive first season in Victory Green. Midseason acquisition Taylor Fedun escaped an AHL purgatory of sorts with the Buffalo Sabres and filled a hole in the Stars’ bottom pairing. And after an impressive season in the Dallas lineup, he’ll now play in his first-ever Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

“Like I said, just trust. The buy-in is key right now and it starts in practice. It’s been preached all year, but we’re starting to see the rewards and the benefits of it. We’re comfortable winning games 1-0. As a goal scorer, I’d like to win 5-1, but I’ll take the 1-0, too.” – Tyler Seguin about the team’s defense on Feb. 1

This is a Dallas Stars blue line that thrives on wearing opponents down in the defensive zone using structure, physicality, and consistent pressure. The defenders and forwards hound the puck carrier, play a heavy game on the back check, and can break out of the defensive zone with a quick rush.

On top of that, the Dallas defense is heavily involved in the offensive attack. As mentioned in the last slide, Klingberg, Heiskanen, and Lindell all cracked double digits in the goal column this season.

This is a multifaceted blue line that can beat opponents in multiple ways. There’s an impressive balance of defensive-minded players that thrive in the defensive zone and on the penalty kill and offensive-savvy players that can contribute on the penalty kill and in the scoring attack.

And when a team has that balance and composure on their blue line, they can be incredibly difficult to beat or even manage.

After all, not every defensive unit can allow one or less goals against in 25/82 games during a given regular season.

The Predators’ Side

Goals against: 212

Goals against per game: 2.59 (3rd in NHL)

Shots against per game: 30.2 (23rd in NHL)

Predlines

If there’s anything that the Nashville Predators have been known for over the past four years, it’s been building a star-studded blue line.

After a few years of careful drafting and a blockbuster trade for P.K. Subban, Nashville now owns one of the highest-profile (and most expensive) defensive groups in the NHL. But that cost doesn’t look bad when the unit gives up the third-fewest goals against and serves as the lifeblood of the team.

The Predators, like the Stars, are built for defensive hockey. There are a lot of parallels to draw between the two blue lines as well.

Nashville thrives on applying steady and stingy defensive pressure, luring the opponent into a sense of offensive serenity, and then crushing them with a quick counterattack. They do it on a regular basis and use booming slap shots from Subban and Josi to create chaos in the offensive zone.

They also possess a good balance of talent in the offensive and defensive zone and can match up well with whatever unit an opponent throws at them. That often makes for a difficult path to the back of the net and leads to few goals for the opposition while the Nashville defense helps push the pace in the other direction.

This Predators defense has been and is currently one of the best defenses in the NHL. They own some of the best blue liners in the business and boast a balanced and aggressive attack that can be tough to outdo in a playoff setting.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

There’s really no way of picking which team possesses the better blue line going into this series. While the Stars have been a pleasantly dominant surprise considering their youth and the obstacles they have faced, the Predators have high-profile names with a lot of experience in big games.

It’s too close to call at this point. We’ll see what the first few games have to offer before making the call.

Regardless of which unit is better, the two blue lines will likely serve as the center of the story in this playoff series.

Comparing The Goaltending

The reigning Vezina winner going up against a former Vezina finalist and the best backup goaltender in the NHL in 2018-19.

How entertaining does that sound?

The Stars’ Side

While the Dallas Stars defense has been impressive this season, the team likely would have held their exit interview day on Monday and be embarking on a third consecutive early offseason had it not been for the play of their goaltenders.

Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin were not only essential, but also electric in the Dallas crease this season. Their presence not only kept the Stars in games on most nights, but also served as the deciding factor in many of the team’s 43 wins.

Let’s start with Bishop. The 32-year-old starting goaltender turned in the best year of his NHL career this season, posting a record of 27-15-2 along with a .934 save percentage (career-best), 1.98 goals against average (career-best), and seven shutouts. He owned both the top save percentage and goals against average in the NHL (among goalies with at least 35 games played).

“He’s just been phenomenal. We’re lucky because not only is he maybe the top goalie in the league right now, but [Anton] Khudobin is one of the top five. That’s why we finished second in the Jennings. Bish is just in a zone, and let’s hope it goes for eight more weeks.” – Jim Montgomery on April 6

SenShot

And had it not been for four periods of injury that caused him to miss 18 games, those numbers might be even better.

Backing him up was Anton Khudobin, who did nothing short of wow and impress in his first season with the Dallas Stars. Though the 32-year-old posted a 16-17-5 record, his .923 save percentage and 2.57 goals against average had him among the league’s top goalies. On top of that, he stymied the Predators at Bridgestone Arena on two separate occasions, posting a 49-save shutout (a franchise record) in December and following it up with a 38/39 performance in early February.

The two-headed monster has served as the primary fuel in getting the Dallas Stars to the playoffs and will play a large role in their potential surge.

The Predators’ Side

Pekka Rinne. The 2018 Vezina Trophy winner and likely just two wins short of a Conn Smythe Trophy in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final.

The 36-year-old finished the 2018-19 season on a positive note, going 30-19-4 with a .918 save percentage and 2.42 goals against average. Though those numbers are a step down from his Herculean statistics from the 2017-18 campaign, they were impressive enough to earn Nashville a second Central division title.

Predlines

On the other hand, Juuse Saros put up a record of 17-10-2 with a .915 save percentage and 2.62 goals against average. He also took a step down from an impressive 2017-18 push, but was able to contribute in a few key games for the Predators.

The Predators probably want to ride Rinne through the playoffs as they have in past years. But with his age creeping upwards and his iffy performances against the Stars this season, Nashville might be forced to turn to Saros at some point.

Meanwhile, the Stars should be content and confident with using either goalie at any point during their run.

ADVANTAGE: DALLAS

The Dallas goaltending duo is one of the best tandems in the past decade in the NHL and has done nothing but get better as the season goes along. If both can stay healthy, they will be an incredibly difficult force to penetrate.

While Nashville has an experienced starter with a winning resume, the Stars have two starting-caliber goaltenders that can win them games if need be. And that’s exactly what hockey teams need in the postseason.

Comparing The Special Teams

Special teams have been a bit of an oddity for both the Stars and Predators throughout the 2018-19 regular season.

But, like the offense, that could make them an even bigger factor in the opening round.

The Stars’ Side

Power play percentage: 21.0 percent (11th in NHL)

Penalty kill percentage: 82.8 percent (5th in NHL)

Pucks and Pitchforks

The Dallas Stars turned in another solid year in the special teams department, with both their power play and penalty kill units finishing in the top half of the league rankings.

The power play served as a thorn of frustration at times, especially during John Klingberg’s absence from the lineup. But when you look at the last month, their success has taken a major step forward.

In the final 10 games of the regular season, the Dallas power play scored on 10/29 chances. That’s a 34.5 percent success rate. In the final seven games, they were 9/21 (42.9 percent).

The power play is heating up at the right time of the regular season and is giving the Stars the scoring help that they need using the man advantage.

Their penalty kill, on the other hand, has been rock solid for the majority of the 2018-19 campaign. They thrive on being able to use a variety of combinations both at forward and on defense and can mix up their attack to properly counter the opposing power play. With a top-five shorthanded unit and a confident goaltender to round it all out, the Dallas PK is one of the best in the NHL.

The Predators’ Side

Power play percentage: 12 percent (last place in NHL)

Penalty kill percentage: 82.1 percent (6th in NHL)

Unlike the Stars, the Predators struggled on the power play to start the year and never found their way out. As a result, they enter the postseason with the worst power play percentage in the entire NHL at 12 percent.

It’s been an incredibly rough year on the man advantage for Nashville. Whenever they earn a power play, it’s usually spent losing possession of the puck and trying to set up an offensive zone attack that doesn’t pan out.

On the other hand, their penalty kill is one of the best in the NHL and sits less than one percentage point behind the Stars. Their confident defenders and goaltenders keep the shorthanded unit going and use composure and proper structure to give up minimal chances when stuck on the kill.

ADVANTAGE: DALLAS

The worst power play in the NHL isn’t a title that any playoff team should own, especially one that won the Central division regular season title.

If this series turns into a special teams battle, it looks as though the Stars will have the upper hand.

Other Potential Factors

In addition to the primary factors that every hockey fan thinks about (offense, defense, goaltending, etc.), there are also the potential outlying factors that could play a part in the series. Let’s look at them right quick.

Attendance/Fan Engagement

The Stars posted an average home game attendance of 18,178 this season, meaning that the AAC was 98.1 percent full on average. It was another steady year for the Stars in the attendance department.

Meanwhile, the Predators averaged 17,446 fans per game, putting their average fill rate at 101.9 percent.

The playoffs are a different animal, though. Predators fans are known for getting remarkably loud at Bridgestone Arena, especially during the postseason. On the other hand, Stars fans haven’t tasted playoff hockey in three years and will likely be out in full force for this run. And if it’s anything like the atmospheres from the 2014 and 2016 playoffs, the stands could play just as big of a role in determining the series as the players on the ice.

“You could sense it. They were loud and the energy was great. I can’t wait until we have our first home game, but two games in Nashville first. When we come home, we know it’s going to be a zoo here.” – Jim Montgomery on the AAC atmosphere

ADVANTAGE: PREDATORS

But it’s very, very, very close. Not to mention that the road team won four of the five meetings between the two clubs during the regular season.

Postseason Experience

This could end up serving as the biggest disadvantage for the Dallas Stars in their opening round series.

The Stars will take part in their first playoff series since May 2016 on Wednesday night. And if they use the same lineup that they have in practice for the past two days, there will be seven skaters playing in their first Stanley Cup Playoffs game (eight if Khudobin gets the nod, considering he has never started in a playoff game).

Meanwhile, the Predators are on their fifth consecutive trip to the postseason. Their lineup is well-versed with playoff hockey and that could end up playing into their favor.

“Playoffs are a different story and we need to be ready,” said Stars defenseman Roman Polak after game 82. “I don’t know how many in here have actually played in the playoffs because it’s been a long time for them. So, hopefully they are going to enjoy it and are going to be ready.”

ADVANTAGE: NASHVILLE

When you comb through all of the analytics and intangibles, it’s clear that this matchup has the potential to be the most entertaining and grueling series in the first round of the 2019 postseason.

The two teams are remarkably similar in their approach and attack, though each team owns certain advantages in different categories. It’s shaping up to be an intense battle that might even go the distance to a game seven in Nashville. And if that happens, we’ll know one thing: there were six contests of great hockey action that got them to that point.

The stage is set for a raucous and rowdy series filled with big hits, amazing saves, close wins, bad blood, and a battle for Central division supremacy in the south.

Wednesday night can’t get here soon enough.