Dallas Stars: Examining Their First Round Matchup Against Predators

Comparing The Offenses

For many hockey fans, fast-paced offense and high-octane scoring are what often define whether a game is exciting or not. And if that’s the standard you tend to use, this series may very well be considered a “boring” one.

That’s because neither of these teams are built around making a heavy offensive impact. The Stars haven’t been a goal-scoring threat since early November and the Predators didn’t receive much scoring outside of their top line for the majority of the 2018-19 season.

With that being said, though, the offensive side of the game could very well be what determines this series. Which team has a better chance of taking control on the offensive ropes?

The Stars’ Side

Goals scored: 209

Goals per game: 2.55 (28th in NHL)

Shots on goal per game: 30.7 (21st in NHL)

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The Dallas Stars are not an offense-first team. We know that from the numbers they posted this year. We know that from their ranking among the NHL offenses. We could also know that by simply watching one or two of their games from the 2018-19 season.

Their offense didn’t score a goal in the first period in 40 of their 82 games this season. Only three Stars crossed the 20-goal and 50-point thresholds this year. And while their offense puts up a fair amount of shots per game, they just haven’t found the back of the net as often as in years past.

Their goal margins by period help tell the story of their season. The Dallas Stars boasted a -16 differential in first periods (with only 39 total goals scored on the year), a +20 in the second period,  and a +4 in the third period. In other words, the offense starts slow, kicks in during the middle frame, and typically does enough to hold on in the third period.

But scoring goals isn’t a part of who the Stars are this season. It’s not in their DNA. Instead, it’s a defense-first approach that lives on winning low-scoring battles. In games where the Stars allowed 3+ goals to their opponent this season, they posted a record of 9-23-5.

So, defense is key.

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The Dallas offensive effort was spearheaded by Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov this season. Seguin posted 33 goals and hit the 80-point mark for just the second time in his career with the Stars while Radulov scored a career high 29 goals and tied a career high in points with 72, including a late-season surge that helped the Stars push into the playoffs. They also received some scattered and inconsistent help from the bottom of their lineup, but it wasn’t enough to get the Dallas offense going. Then again, that wasn’t the goal.

“Sticking to what we are,” said Montgomery about the team’s consistency on defense after a win on Feb. 1. “I mean, that’s what we are, right? If you have good defense, you’re always gonna be in every game. And if the goal scoring comes, we’re going to start winning games by a couple of goals to several goals. And it will come, because if you play that way, we were just missing on a couple of odd-man rushes in every period.”

On top of that, the Dallas defensemen played a heavy role in the offensive attack. There are 38 combined goals among defenders still on the Stars’ roster. Miro Heiskanen (12 goals), Esa Lindell (11 goals), and John Klingberg (10 goals) became the first defensive trio in Dallas Stars history to record at least 10 goals each in a season. The blue line stayed active in the offensive attack and helped push it along through low points in the year.

But there is one wild card for this Dallas Stars team that could play a large role in getting their offense to a level that Nashville hasn’t seen this year. That’s Mats Zuccarello.

Since acquiring the forward from the New York Rangers on Feb. 23, Zuccarello has only played in two games with Dallas. But in less than 32 combined minutes of playing time in a Stars uniform, he has one goal, three points, and a +3 rating. He’s provided a significant boost of speed and energy to the Stars’ attack both on offense and on the power play. With his presence in the top six, the Dallas Stars could be in store to reach a new height in the offensive zone during their playoff run.

That remains to be seen, though.

The Predators’ Side

Goals scored: 236

Goals per game: 2.88 (19th in NHL)

Shots on goal per game: 32.7 (10th in NHL)

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In each of the past three seasons, the Nashville Predators have finished in the top half of the NHL ranks in terms of goals scored per game. This season, they finished 19th. What happened?

Their offense began suffering from the same problem that the 2017-18 Dallas Stars endured, being the “one-line syndrome.”

For much of the 2018-19 season, the Predators relied heavily on their top line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson to carry the load in the offensive zone. The trio combined for 86 of the 236 goals scored by Nashville this season, which translates to 36.4 percent.

The syndrome became more prevalent as the season went along, giving Nashville a glaring need for help in their depth scoring. And so, they added Wayne Simmonds, Brian Boyle, and Mikael Granlund at the 2019 Trade Deadline.

But the Predators are a lot like the Stars in the fact that their defense helps churn their scoring along. Their top four (Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis) combined for 39 goals during the 2018-19 campaign and aided in prodding the offensive attack forward.

And while the Nashville offense isn’t as dominant as it has been in years past, they still own a commendable balance within their lineup. Seven forwards scored at least 10 goals during the regular season, giving the Predators a multi-line attack to use at different times.

How often all three lines clicked at the same time is a different story.

ADVANTAGE: NASHVILLE

This one is difficult. For one, both teams struggled to score consistently at various points throughout the year. On top of that, both clubs rely on their defense to assist in getting the puck in the back of the net. The season series was also deadlocked at 14-14 in terms of goals scored and there are some questions to be answered about how both offenses will execute in the postseason.

But if we have to pick one, the Predators probably own an advantage when it comes to pressure in the offensive zone and scoring power.