Coming off of back-to-back Western Conference finals appearances that both resulted in letdowns for fans, the Stars are looking to get over that hump this year to return to the Stanley Cup Finals. As frustrating as it is to finish as a bridesmaid, our fanbase has had it pretty good. Most teams haven't had the level of success the Stars have enjoyed over the past decade, even without the Stanley Cup. With success comes expectations, and that's exactly the boat we are in now: "Stanley Cup or Bust."
A large part of the team's success can be attributed to Stars GM Jim Nill, who has meticulously constructed this team not only for near-term success but also for years to come as well. Our team is largely composed of two groups of players: the young and the old(er). While some may raise an eyebrow at this, it has proven to be a successful model not only for the Stars but also for other teams.
We get an influx of young talent from our AHL affiliate, Texas Stars, even after we lose foundational pieces such as Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov, or John Klingberg. These young players then reap the benefits of "learning the ropes" from the old(er) NHL vets who are still competing and producing at a high level so they can develop into successful franchise/role players for the organization for years to come. This is tried and proper for the Stars; just ask Wyatt Johnston or even Logan Stankoven. With all that being said, there is a limit on the success rate of such a model: time.
With how our roster is constructed, each year without the Stanley Cup in our hands, Stars Nation is turning up the pressure dial. Passing time is perceived differently when comparing our old(er) players to our younger players.
For our old(er) players, each failed season is one less competitive year left in the tank and another year further in a contract (which can be good or bad). For our younger players, each failed season is one more year of good experience but another year further in a contract (usually a bad thing when trying to maximize talent at a team-friendly price).
The following information below was acquired from PuckPedia:
The Stars have six players (4 forwards, 1 defenseman & 1 goalie) that are aged 32 or over:
Forwards
Tyler Seguin (32)
Matt Duchene (33)
Jamie Benn (35)
Evgenii Dadonov (35)
Defense
Brendan Smith (35)
Goaltenders
Casey DeSmith (33)
When looking at upcoming expiring contracts we have the following:
Unrestricted Free Agents after this season
Jamie Benn
Matt Duchene
Evgenii Dadonov
Sam Steel
Colin Blackwell
Brendan Smith
Oskar Back
Restricted Free Agents after this season
Mavrik Bourque
Wyatt Johnston
Nils Lundkvist
Unrestricted Free Agents after NEXT season (2025-2026)
Mason Marchment
Matt Dumba
Restricted Free Agents after NEXT season (2025-2026)
Jason Robertson
Logan Stankoven
Thomas Harley
With our current roster, the Stars are just barely below the $88 million cap. Big decisions will need to be made around the trade deadline and in the offseason. Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene will be key unrestricted free agents after this season. You can make a case for Evgenii Dadonov and Sam Steel to retain some of our key players to remain competitive enough to contend for the Stanley Cup for the next several years.
Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque, and arguably Nils Lundkvist will be restricted free agents after this season.
It will be hard to imagine the Stars retaining all these players while filling out the rest of their roster with likely departures from some of the names above. Jim Nill has remained committed to keeping Benn in Dallas, which would be great for our team's culture, even from a talent perspective, despite him being past his prime.
In regards to Matt Duchene, he has made a strong case for another respectable payday, and you can't deny that. The big question is whether or not the Stars will be willing to pay him something similar since he has positively impacted our recent success.
Regarding Evgenii Dadonov, Sam Steel, and Oskar Back, I think Back is the top player on this list, and the Stars should consider retaining him just from a talent perspective. Dadonov and Steel could don Victory Green next season. Dadonov will likely have to settle for less than he is making now, and Steel will need to settle for something similar, I imagine, given the other (more important) contracts that need tending to.
Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque are also two players the Stars should remain committed to extending/re-signing if they want to keep our Stanley Cup window as wide open as possible. I also think there's a decent chance we will retain Nils Lundkvist at the right price if he continues improving.
Being able to re-sign/extend these players would be great. However, looking at the 2026 offseason makes you rethink how the Stars may approach this upcoming offseason.
Jason Robertson, Logan Stankoven, and Thomas Harley will be the biggest names during that offseason. All three players are undoubtedly considered foundational pieces for the franchise, and all will likely garner nice paydays.
That aside, you have unrestricted free agents in Mason Marchment and Matt Dumba. If Marchment continues playing as he has, you would be hard-pressed to let him walk, but our hand may be forced with the money he deserves and our limited cap space after presumably locking up Robertson, Stankoven & Harley.
Closing Remarks
If you're still here with me at the end of this article, cheers to you. There are many different ways this unfolds. For this to play out perfectly, we essentially need our older players to settle for considerably less to retain most, if not all, of our foundational young players for the long haul.
If management can accomplish that, I think our window will be propped wide open, even after the departure/retirement of our vets. The Stars have the potential to be perennial Stanley Cup contenders if management plays their cards right during contract negotiations over the next couple of years.
On the contrary, if concessions are not made by any of the old(er) players and even some of the younger players, who may be open to taking a smidge less to retain other key players, do not make concessions of the old(er) players, it will be hard to maintain this level of success.
In a scenario such as this, some of the vets and likely some of our younger players will likely depart for more money, but who can blame them, given NHL players are paid significantly less than other professional athletes in what is also a very physical sport where shelf life isn't always as long. If this happens, I still think the Stars will be somewhat competitive, but it will be difficult to achieve the level of success we've gotten used to over the past 5 or so years where they are always "relevant."
If different cap rules were in place (such as those in the NBA and MLB), it's easy to say the league would look and be managed very differently. In due time, I wouldn't be surprised if it conforms, especially given the rate at which player salaries have been increasing along with the rise in popularity of the NHL. For now, teams are still at the mercy of the hard cap, which forces them to be more strategic when constructing their roster, especially from a contractual standpoint.