One of the biggest questions heading into the Stars' offseason was what would happen with Thomas Harley and his contract situation. Stars' GM Jim Nill eased fans' minds, inking the restricted free agent to a 2 year/$8 million contract. The contract itself had different interpretations depending on who you asked.
If you ask Jim Nill, he'd tell you that he locked up one of the NHL's best emerging young defenders to a team-friendly deal worth $4 million each season. If you ask Thomas Harley, he'd tell you that not only did he land himself a sizeable contract for a 23-year-old with only one full season of experience, but it also allows him to prove his value over the next two seasons.
And boy, did he do that.
Harley finished this regular season with new career highs nearly across the board. He amassed 50 points, which included 16 goals and 34 assists, compared to his 15 goals and 32 assists a year prior. His +/- also increased from +28 in 2023-2024 to +32 this season. The most significant question mark on his resume thus far is if he can deliver in the postseason.
When Harley was called up at the end of the 2022-2023 season for the final six games, he displayed his value to the team, but it wasn't until the postseason that his real value came to light. Across 19 games that season, Harley recorded 9 points, which included 8 assists and 1 goal. Impressive for a player who barely got any NHL ice time that season.
Fast-forward to last season, expectations were high for Harley, given the show he put on for fans last season. His regular-season numbers were just like his previous postseason numbers, which were impressive. However, Harley's postseason this particular year had a different narrative. Through 19 games, Harley could only accrue 4 points off 4 assists; virtually non-existent. What happened to the player from the regular season?
To the year prior, for that matter? Was Harley's success just a flash in the pan? Who is the real Thomas Harley? Fans began asking all sorts of questions, and with valid reason. The player fans got so accustomed to seeing seemed to disappear in the playoffs, which definitely created some angst heading into the offseason, when big contractual decisions were going to be made.
When the time came for contract negotiations, I would say Jim Nill likely had the upper hand in these talks, using Harley's lack of performance in the playoffs as leverage to ink him to a team-friendly deal that was still satisfying enough for Harley. I would say that since then, Harley has had the upper hand. Aside from setting career marks this past regular season while also being selected to Team Canada for the Four Nations Face-Off, Harley has taken things to another level this postseason by tallying 11 points through 13 games, which consist of 4 goals and 7 assists.
One of those goals propelled the Stars in the Western Conference Finals, sending the Winnipeg Jets home in overtime. Couple that with the fact that he has been leading the blueline since the end of January after Miro Heiskanen went down with a knee injury. Harley has been able to display not only his talent but also his leadership capabilities. But wait, there's more. Harley is also in the top 10 for shots blocked for the second consecutive postseason.
Suppose Harley continues this level of play for the remainder of the postseason and the rest of next season. In that case, he will likely be looking at a contract that places his average annual value in the top 25, arguably even higher. What's excellent for Harley when that time comes around is that there should be a lot of money freed up on the books, and potentially an even higher cap, which should allow him to land a long-term, lucrative deal, hopefully with the Stars.