Dallas Stars: Estimating Tyler Seguin’s Contract Extension Value

The free agency market opens in 31 days and the Dallas Stars have plenty to stay busy with. One of those things is re-signing Tyler Seguin to a long-term extension. So, how much should his upcoming extension be worth?

The summer of 2016 was an interesting time for the Dallas Stars organization.

The team was fresh off of an impressive 2015-16 regular season. In it, they claimed 50 wins and 109 points, finished atop the Central Division and Western Conference, and gained home ice advantage for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

They charged easily through the first round against the Minnesota Wild in six games. But the magic ran out in game seven of the Western semis when the Stars couldn’t close out the series against the St. Louis Blues. Still, there was plenty to be proud of and plenty to look forward to in the organization.

And amidst all of the departing free agents and new talent signing, there was one key moment: the extension of captain Jamie Benn.

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Shortly after free agency opened and the majority of trades and signings had gone down, the Stars hosted their annual Party in the Park event. And to keep up the tradition of bringing big news to the stage (they had announced the Patrick Sharp trade in 2015), GM Jim Nill announced that the team had signed Benn to a long-term extension. Benn, fresh off an offseason surgery, was not available for the party but left his positive comments on the new deal.

It was a big deal for a few reasons. For one, Benn had put together another monumental season in 2015-16. He passed the 40 goal plateau for the first time in his career (and became just the second Dallas Star to ever do so), notched 89 points, and was a finalist for the Ted Lindsay Award and Hart Trophy. His play was a driving force in the Stars’ big year and played an influential part in their success.

To get their captain locked down was big, but their timing was even better.

Benn still had one year left on his prior contract that he signed in the 2013 lockout season before he was in need of an extension. So the 2016-17 season wasn’t a worry. And yet, Nill still made it a priority to sign a critical piece of the Stars’ future ahead of time. It was another smart move by the Dallas general manager.

And now, the team setting up to commit another one of those smart moves. That’s because on July 1, 2018, the Dallas Stars can officially sign Tyler Seguin to an extension.

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As another high-end talent on the same level as Benn, Seguin is proving to be one of the Stars’ brightest pieces for the future. At the age of 26, Seguin is already a multi-time All Star that also hit the 40-goal mark this year and transformed his game into an even deeper and more balanced approach.

Seguin took a big step forward in 2017-18, playing in a wide variety of new situations and always finding a way to thrive. Whether it was even strength, on the power play or penalty kill, or in the offensive or defensive zone, Seguin was doing what he had to in order to help the team. Mix that with a strong presence at center along with great puck-handling skills and insane speed and you’ve got yourself a solid piece to build your future around. That’s Tyler Seguin.

But the question has to be asked: after a stellar campaign this past season and entirely new levels of potential still within reach, what will Seguin cost?

It’s a good question that requires a certain amount of unbiasedness and research. After all, we’re talking about the future of arguably a top-five player in the league. It’s not an easy question to answer and would likely get 10 different answers when posed to 10 different people. So how much has Seguin proved himself to be worth?

It’s no secret that Seguin is an elite talent that could play no. 1 center for any team. His well-roundedness as a forward on both sides of the ice and on special teams makes him indispensable. Oh, and the fact that he has 171 goals and 384 points in 387 games with the Stars is pretty impressive, too. To top it all off, Seguin is 26. He’s still a few years away from hitting his prime, which means that there is still plenty of room for him to somehow be even better as he continues to grow.

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Using the rest of the league as a comparison factor can sometimes be helpful, so let’s look around the NHL.

The highest-paid player on the Dallas Stars at the moment is Jamie Benn. His new extension kicked in this past season with a cap hit of $9.5 million per year for the next eight years.

Going into next season, that cap hit ties Benn with Evgeni Malkin as the eighth highest-paid player in the NHL. The players in front of him include Connor McDavid ($12.5 million), Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews ($10.5 million each), Carey Price ($10.5 million), Anze Kopitar ($10 million), Jack Eichel ($10 million), and Alex Ovechkin ($9,538,462).

So, the basic question revolves around where Seguin ranks talent-wise among these players. Is he the best? Is he around the same level as Benn?

The problem with comparing Seguin’s situation to other contracts is that they were all signed at different points in the respective player’s career. McDavid signed his extension at age 20. Kane was 25 when he signed his and Toews was 26. Price was 29. Kopitar was 28.

Seguin is 26 and won’t be 27 until January 31, 2019, which is midway through next season. So it’s a significant time in the center’s career.

At the moment, it would seem as though Seguin is definitely worth more than $9 million and could very well be in the Kane/Toews range of $10.5 million a year. He’s younger than Benn, brings just as much, if not more, to the table as a player, and is showing no signs of slowing down. That’s worth a hefty pay day.

On exit interview day, Seguin talked about how he hadn’t thought about the extension too much but that Dallas was the place he calls home. Nill, on the other hand, was confident that talks would start early on in the offseason and would hopefully lead to something being laid out and ready to sign by July 1.

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There’s still no significant updates on this, but Nill recently said in a video interview on DallasStars.com that he was planning on meeting Seguin’s agent this week at the NHL Scouting Combine.

After a stellar 2017-18 season and five solid seasons with the Dallas Stars, Seguin is in for a hefty pay raise from his current $5.75 million cap hit. At the moment, it would seem as though somewhere in the $9.5-$10.5 million range with for eight years is an appropriate mark for the Stars to shoot for. There is obviously some leeway in both directions, but it’s definitely a feasible starting point. And with July 1 only a month away, it’s time for the Stars to get rolling.

Tyler Seguin has earned a top dollar contract from the Dallas Stars. His play is getting better with each passing year, and that’s scary considering how young he still is. Getting him locked down before the season begins is also bordering necessary. The last thing Dallas wants to do is let Seguin enter the final year of his deal, amp up his value even further, and leave the Stars having a tougher negotiation while other NHL teams (with a lot more cap space) wait in line to get a crack at him in the 2019 offseason.

Next: This Season Proved That Nothing Is Getting Easier For Stars

If the Stars don’t get him a top-dollar deal, one thing can be assured: plenty of other teams will. The sooner, the better.