Dallas Stars: What A Mats Zuccarello Contract Extension Could Look Like

With the regular season in the past and the heat of the offseason quickly approaching, it’s time for the Dallas Stars to sort out their priorities. Among those priorities seems to be signing forward Mats Zuccarello to a long-term extension. But what might the winger end up costing?

One of the most exciting parts of any Dallas Stars offseason is their activity in the free agent market. Sure, the NHL Entry Draft can be exciting at times and the rise of trade rumors always adds some intrigue and extra speculation. But when it comes to free agency, that’s where the Stars take the spotlight.

Part of it has to do with GM Jim Nill‘s willingness to make moves on July 1. Since becoming general manager of the Stars in April 2013, he’s never shied away from signing multiple free agents in a given summer. Whether they are high-profile names like Alexander Radulov and Johnny Oduya or more depth-centered pieces like Roman Polak and Patrick Eaves, he’s never afraid to pull the trigger and bring a new player in.

But in the 2019 offseason, the center of attention in the Dallas Stars’ free agency journey won’t necessarily be a player on the market; instead, it will likely be on a player that’s already in-house.

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So, let’s talk about forward Mats Zuccarello for a minute.

The 31-year-old winger arrived in Dallas near the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline as a result of a trade between the Stars and New York Rangers. After playing the first nine years of his career in New York, a struggling Rangers team that wasn’t playoff-bound saw the opportunity to trade Zuccarello (who was on the final year of his deal) in an attempt to build for the future. Meanwhile, the Stars desperately needed an offensive punch to help their scoring inconsistencies.

It seemed to be a match made in heaven. The Rangers got two conditional picks (a second in 2019 and a third in 2020) that both had a chance to turn into a first-round selection, while the Stars rounded out their top six with a playmaking forward.

But then, disaster struck. Just 24 hours after the trade happened, the Stars were in Chicago taking on the Blackhawks to kick off a road trip. And after an electric debut through the first 39 minutes, Zuccarello broke his arm while blocking a shot near the end of the second period. It was a frustrating moment for a Dallas offense that had gotten a small taste of how good it could be with the newly-acquired winger in the fold.

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Zuccarello ended up missing all but one of the Stars’ remaining games, with his only action coming against Philadelphia on the night that Dallas clinched a playoff berth. Even so, he posted one goal and three points in two regular season games and seemed to be the catalyst that the Stars needed.

As the Dallas Stars rolled into the postseason, Zuccarello continued proving his immense worth with each passing game. He started in all 13 games during the Stars’ run in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and led the team in points with 11 (4G, 7A).

Zuccarello was particularly dominant in the second round series against St. Louis, posting one goal and eight points in an average of 17:25 on the ice. He was able to achieve all of this on a still-healing arm that required multiple injections before every game.

But, as we already know, that’s where the magic ran out on the Stars. And so, after playing deeper into the postseason than they had in the past 11 years, the Stars came up just short and headed instead for the 2019 offseason.

And that’s where the debate comes into play. While talks of change continue to arise and different player names on the free agent and trade market are deemed as “targets” by fans, a critical first step is being overlooked (which is only natural). That step involves determining which pending free agents currently on the roster should be brought back and which should be let go.

That’s where we find Zuccarello. And depending on how long negotiations last, his name may stay there for a while. But the question on everyone’s mind isn’t necessarily whether the Stars should re-sign the forward; instead, it’s more centered around how much he might cost and if Dallas could realistically bring him back on an extension.

Now, let’s get the basics nailed down first.

We know that Zuccarello made an immediate impact in his limited amount of time in Victory Green and proved to be a valuable asset. His speed, puck handling skills, and playmaking abilities provided the Stars’ top six with a needed weapon and gave head coach Jim Montgomery options when making the offensive lineup.

Zuccarello made the players around him better using his playmaking prowess and helped both Roope Hintz and Jason Dickinson turn into top-six options.

He’s got a great offensive mind, can generate instant chemistry with teammates, and can fit anywhere in the lineup. He’s a force on offense and can be a dominant piece of the power play unit as well while skating around 18-20 minutes per game.

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In addition to that, he will be one of the top offensive targets on the free agent market come July 1 (assuming the Stars haven’t signed him to a new deal by then).

It’s obvious that re-signing Zuccarello is a priority for the Dallas Stars, and rightly so. The forward proved his worth in the Dallas lineup and proved that he can help drive an offense that struggled mightily without him on the ice.

“I think he was a good fit,” Jim Nill said on exit interview day. “A great fit in the dressing room. I think he loved it here. Now, we need to sit down with his representatives.”

“He fit like a glove,” added the GM about Zuccarello’s play. “He was a big part of our success and we’d like to keep him here.”

“I think Jim [Nill] will do what’s best for the Dallas Stars, and I’ve already told Zuc I’d like to have him back,” said head coach Jim Montgomery on exit interview day.

In addition to the praise given to him from the general manager and head coach, Zuccarello also had positive things to say about his experience with the organization. Even though it was limited to an extent, he expressed his enjoyment with playing for the Stars.

“Yeah, I really like it,” Zuccarello said. “It’s a nice city and a really good team and teammates. I just had a really good time hockey-wise. Outside the rink, on the rink, during practices and everything like that, it’s fun. Obviously, I wish I could’ve played more hockey, but injuries are part of the game. Even with the injury, they took me in really well and I became a part of the group quite quick. I had a really good time here.”

And so, now that the obvious is out of the way, let’s tackle the part of the debate that could cause it all to unwind entirely: the extension.

It’s clear that Zuccarello is one of the top names on the market going into this summer. With that being said, he’s due for a hefty raise from his recent cap hit of $4.5 million. In addition, he will be 32 years old and probably wants this to be the last contract of his career. When players become free agents in their early 30’s, longevity and long-term security typically become a primary factor. Just look at Ben Bishop (six years) and Jason Spezza (four years), two Stars who signed hefty contracts with the team in recent years.

So now the question becomes whether the Stars would be able to meet Zuccarello’s asking price.

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At this point, we’ve already discussed the Stars’ cap space going into the summer and pointed out that they could arguably meet just about any bar that Zuccarello sets. The question, though, is whether or not they will meet any bar while also considering the long-term security of the team.

What is no. 36 worth then? We’ve established that he’s a dynamic piece for any offense and can provide a quick and durable spark to a struggling attack. An injury hurt his exposure with the Stars this past season, but he’s not known for getting injured often on a season-by-season basis. With very few glaring issues sticking out in his situation and a lot of positives on the table, it seems as though he’s in for a shiny new deal.

Zuccarello will likely be getting at least $6 million in a new contract and could even fall around the $6.5 million range. Going any higher might be a bit on the imaginative side, but there’s still room for debate. He’s earned a salary raise after battling through injuries and a midseason trade that uprooted the first decade of his NHL life to still be an effective player in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That’s not easy to do.

And when you look at his abilities and all that he can bring to a team, the value is up there.

The next step is the term. There’s a good chance that Zuccarello will want a five-year deal with an AAV somewhere in the range of $6 million. If that’s the case, the Stars may want to be cautious with their next step in the negotiating process.

Sure, the Stars would benefit from having Zuccarello around long-term. But a five-year deal would keep him in Dallas through age 37. That’s pretty late for any NHL player’s career, and will Zuccarello still be putting up $6,000,000+ worth of production? That remains to be seen.

But if Dallas can lure him in with the promise of competing for a Stanley Cup right now, that might be enough to get him on a four-year deal. At the moment, though, there’s no telling how set he is on term.

"“At the end of the day, I don’t really care about points. It’s about wins and we weren’t good enough this year. Hopefully, we’ll see if I get back. There’s a bright future for this team. A lot of good players, good goalie, good leadership, and everything like that. It’s good.” – Zuccarello on exit interview day"

And so, the dance rages on. If the Dallas Stars do sign Zuccarello to an extension and bring him back into the mix, the 2020 pick that they sent to the New York Rangers will become a first-round selection. But if the Stars are markedly better on offense and are a guaranteed competitor because of it, sacrificing a pick in what should be the mid-to-late 20’s isn’t going to hurt.

The Stars have exclusive negotiating rights with Zuccarello at the moment and will own that privilege up until June 23 when, if the forward is still without a contract, he can begin conversing and interviewing with other interested teams.

There will be plenty of debates regarding Zuccarello’s worth over the next few weeks as the Dallas Stars try and capitalize on one of their best trades in recent memory. Zuccarello left a lasting mark on the Stars offense and had them in line to do some great things. If you can bring him back with a fully-healed arm and give him an entire season in Dallas, what could he accomplish?

But the value is where the debate will reside for the next few weeks. Is Nill willing to stretch the term out in order to land a piece that has already proven its worth and reliability? Or will he try and negotiate on a different path? Nill is known for being particularly thorough in his negotiations, so the assumption is that this one will be no different, especially considering how important the final decision will be.

There’s still a lot that needs to be sorted out, but you can rest assured that Nill is doing his homework and staying close to Zuccarello and his representatives.

And if Zuccarello’s comments on exit interview day are any consolation, he may already consider Dallas his new home.

“This is my team now,” Zuccarello pointed out. “I’m the kind of guy that when someone believes in you and wants you, I usually like that. We’ll see.”

All that’s left to do is wait and see what the next step is.