Looking at each team's chance in the Olympic men's hockey semifinals

As great as Wednesday's quarterfinal round of the men's hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics was projected to be, no one could have imagined just how enthralling it ended up. All four games resulted in one-goal wins and three went to overtime.

In the end, all four teams that were expected to win did, though not without drama.

The results nearly left the Dallas Stars intact, at least. The only player eliminated was Radek Faksa, whose Czechia team led Canada with four minutes left before falling in OT. Now, the Slovakian team will play Jake Oettinger's United States while Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell, and Miro Heiskanen's Finland bunch plays Thomas Harley's Canada.

As for who is expected to come out on top, according to odds from "The Athletic," the Americans have the best chances of winning gold (48%) and silver (44%). That's because Team USA has an easier road. Finland's odds of pulling an upset over Canada are higher than the Slovaks' chances of knocking off the U.S.

Canada is next in line, as far as favorites go, with a 41% chance of winning the gold medal, 27% silver, and 30% bronze. Finland's best odds are bronze (30%), then silver (22% silver, and then bronze ()11%). Slovakia, meanwhile, has a 15% chance of winning bronze but less than a 1% chance of winning silver. They're embracing the underdog role while the United States is an underdog of sorts itself.

Stranger things have happened, though. The NHL has only allowed its players to participate in the Olympics since 1998, with a break from 2014 to 2018. Over those six Olympics, the Americans have medaled only twice, capturing silver in 2002 and 2010. Canada, meanwhile, has been the - ahem - gold standard, winning the tournament in 2002, 2010, and 2014.

The Finns and Slovaks have a more recent history on their side. Finland has been the bridesmaid most often, earning medals in 1998 (bronze), 2006 (silver), 2010 (bronze), and 2014 (bronze). Plus, the Finns are the reigning gold medalists, though the 2022 Games were played without NHLers. Slovakia will seek to win its second straight medal (bronze in 2022) and just its second, period, since the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1993.

If we, as fans, get semifinals as good as the quarters, we're all in for a treat. At least Stars fans, anyway, are guaranteed one of their favorite players getting a shot at gold.