To kick things off, let's take a look at my early-season projections back in October:
1. Jake Oettinger (I think this will be the year!)
2. Connor Hellebuyck (reigning winner and still at the top of his game)
3. Igor Shesterkin (former winner and in a contract year)
4. Lukas Dostal (I think he will end up taking over as the lead goaltender, but regression is likely)
5. Ilya Sorokin (2022-2023 runner-up and is off to a great start this season)
We can all agree that quite a bit has changed over the past several months. Despite Otter's strong start to the season and recent success behind the crease, he still ranks behind the likes of reigning winner Connor Hellebuyck, who has proven unshakable, led and has in nearly all major goaltending categories. More to Hellebuyck's credit, he has also started the most games among goaltenders.
As we look at the rest of this list, the Rangers' Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers team have had a down year according to his standards. I think it is safe to say he is no longer in contention.
The Anaheim Ducks' Lukas Dostal has cooled off significantly after a powerful start to the season. With Dostal splitting, which starts with John Gibson, who has since returned after missing the beginning of the regular season, Dostal will no longer be in contention. Lastly, we have Ilya Sorokin, who isn't having the best season by his standards either, defending the crease for a mediocre Islanders squad.
So now that we have gone over that, what do the power rankings look like now? Below is my updated list of who is in the race for the Vezina Trophy:
1. Connor Hellebuyck (reigning winner and unshakable)
2. Jacob Markstrom (2021-2022 runner up)
3. Jake Oettinger (still has a realistic chance!)
4. Logan Thompson (in a contract year - will be an UFA after this season)
5. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2018-2019 winner & 2020-2021 runner up)
There is not much more to say about Hellebuyck. He is the standard and has been for a while. With the Jets continuing to hold the top spot atop the Western Conference since the beginning of the season and Hellebuyck seemingly getting better and better, it will be challenging to dethrone him from this list.
Next up is the New Jersey Devils netminder Jacob Markstrom. Markstrom has had a phenomenal first year with the Devils after being traded back to the Eastern Conference from the Calgary Flames this past summer. Markstrom is having one of the best seasons of his career, owning a career-best 2.15 GAA through 33 games this season.
The Devils are currently in second place within a very competitive Eastern Conference. If Markstrom can keep the Devils in the upper rankings, that will only increase his odds of leapfrogging Hellebuyck and securing his first Vezina Trophy.
The third goaltender in my power rankings is our own beloved Jake Oettinger. While Oettinger started the season strong, a rough November and mediocre December have forced me to lower him in the rankings. If the Stars remain hot and Hellebuyck cools off a bit (or hits a rough patch), there is a real chance Oettinger could contend for the top spot by season's end. A lot needs to go right, but it's a possibility.
Our fourth goaltender on the list is Washington Capitals' goalie, Logan Thompson, who was also on the move this offseason, being sent east to the nation's capital from Las Vegas. While Thompson is having a career year himself (contract year, mind you), the only thing keeping him below Markstrom and Oettinger is the amount of starts, where he is currently splitting time with the less productive Charlie Lindgren. If Lindgren gets injured or Thompsom receives the lion's share of starts, we could see Thompson in this list.
Lastly, Tampa Bay Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy comes in at #5. While the Lightning sit at #6 in the Eastern Conference, the standings are jam-packed, sits so there is room for the Lightning to finish higher. Believe it or not, Vasilevskiy is having a pretty good year; it's just that other goaltenders are having a better year. As with Oettinger, if any goaltenders find themselves in a rough patch (or even injured) and Vasilevskiy continues doing what he's doing, he could climb up in the rankings.
We still have another half-season of hockey left, so changes will happen. Given the natural wear and tear inflicted over the regular season, I think the biggest thing to watch is whether the Jets and/or Hellebuyck slow down, given the natural wear and tear inflicted over the regular season. If that does happen, it will be interesting to see who takes advantage of the opportunity to supplant him as the Vezina favorite.