The Hockey News recently projected how the Dallas Stars lineup will look at the beginning of the 2019-20 season. If you’re a fan of the Stars, this may hurt to read.
The Hockey News is currently in the midst of previewing and projecting what each NHL team’s roster may look like come the 2019-20 season. As part of a series called “2020 Vision”, they preview one team a day by alphabetical order.
On July 28, they made their way to D and previewed the Dallas Stars roster.
The Stars are covered and written about on a daily basis across various networks and platforms, so this article didn’t come as much of a shock. But when the contents turn out to be almost unbelievable and seemingly unfathomable, something has to be said.
In the article written by Ken Campbell, the Stars are praised for their offseason efforts this summer and are mentioned in the same sentence as the word “contender.” By that point in the article, everything seems spot on.
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But then the question is raised on whether they will still be able to compete in 2019-20 if the roster undergoes some pretty substantial changes over the next few seasons. The Dallas Stars will have plenty of free agents to filter through between now and then, and Campbell believes that a few of the bigger names may not be in Victory Green much longer.
The big kicker is when you scroll down and read his projected lineup for the Stars starting in October 2019.
Since I’m deficient when it comes to taking pictures out of other articles and putting them into my own, I’m going to take his prediction from a tweet instead. Take a look at it below.
I will fight somebody if Martin Hanzal is ever our first line center pic.twitter.com/GJwvo4xuSv
— Alex (@dalstarsfan) July 28, 2017
So in that tweet you get Campbell’s prediction for the Dallas Stars’ 2019-20 lineup AND a reaction from a Stars fan. It isn’t too pretty, is it?
That’s because this projected lineup basically looks like the Stars will be in rebuild mode by 2019. Let’s dive in really quickly.
First off, being the grammar nut that I am, I have to point out that he spelled Jason Dickinson’s last name wrong. Phew, that feels much better. Now let’s take a look at the lineup itself.
Blackhawk Up
The first thing that likely sticks out to you is probably the absence of superstar center Tyler Seguin on the first line (or any line, for that matter). This is due in part to the fact that after the 2018-19 season, Seguin will become an unrestricted free agent and have the power to sign with any team that sends him an offer.
Seguin currently has an AAV of $5.75 million, making him the fifth-highest paid player on the team. If you have been a Dallas Stars fan for at least a year now, you know that Seguin’s talents stretch beyond $5.75 million. He’s one of the elite scorers in the league and has 133 goals and 306 points in 305 games with Dallas. Those are the numbers of an All-Star (which Seguin happens to be).
The thought of the Stars not doing whatever may be necessary to re-sign Seguin as he approaches free agency status seems ludicrous. He’ll be 27 when his contract expires and will not have even hit his prime yet. If Seguin keeps his pace over the next two years, he could be in for somewhere around $8 million a year. It’s an awfully large stretch, but for the sake of the Stars’ future, I think they would find a way to make it happen. After all, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin on the top line is a luxury that every team fantasizes about.
Seguin is a critical piece of the Dallas forward group and is growing into a more effective leader with each passing year. In addition to that, there isn’t necessarily a center on the Stars’ current roster that would be able to fill the first line void and keep up with Benn and Alexander Radulov if Seguin signs elsewhere.
If you haven’t already read the article, Campbell also notes that he is not predicting any free agency signings or trades, which would be why Martin Hanzal is considered the first line center in this case.
Dallas Stars
He also predicts that Jason Spezza will be gone, which is a more viable prediction. Spezza currently has an AAV of $7 million and his contract expires around the same time as Seguin’s. Considering he’ll be 36 at the time, the Stars will likely re-sign him only if it comes with a deep pay cut. Still, the veteran center may be looking to retire in Dallas and do whatever is necessary to make a deal. He does love the area and has put a lot into the North Texas community.
Moving on. The next thing that stands out is Jake Oettinger playing for Dallas at the NHL level. I’m one of the biggest Oettinger supporters around, but this prediction may be a little far-fetched.
Oettinger was definitely the number one goaltender in the 2017 Draft and has proven his value both at development camp and in the World Junior Summer Showcase. But he will begin his sophomore year at Boston University this season, meaning that at the beginning of the 2019-20 season, he will be considered a senior.
There’s a chance that Oettinger plays out his entire college career with BU. Even if he doesn’t, it’s unlikely that he makes the jump from college to the NHL without a stop anywhere else. The Stars will likely give him some playing time in the AHL before calling him up for a full-time gig. Either way, expect the goalie to spend at least two more years in Boston. I’m still excessively excited about his future, though.
Antoine Roussel is another name that has disappeared from the lineup. Roussel will be a UFA next summer and his AAV of $2 million likely won’t be enough to re-sign him. While he isn’t the most prolific scorer or forward, he’s a hard worker who kills penalties, gets physical, has a decent and unexpected scoring touch, and leaves every ounce of energy he has on the ice.
If he is commanding a lot of money, then don’t expect the Stars to go fishing for him. But if the price is acceptable and fair, I don’t see why Dallas doesn’t at least go after him. After all, he does help fill the seats at the AAC.
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Some other unusual things found on the list include Mattias Janmark as a third line center. Although Janmark can play center, he’s spent the majority of his time on the wing in Dallas. Not to mention that Denis Gurianov, Remi Elie, Justin Dowling, and Gemel Smith were all skipped over by Roope Hintz and Riley Tufte (another prospect still in college that is about to start sophomore year).
Both Hintz and Tufte are bright and powerful prospects that were taken high in their respective drafts and are expected to be contributing on the Dallas Stars at some point, but neither has played professional hockey yet. To skip over the other forwards mentioned above as though they have “missed the train” seems folly.
Now of course there may be competition here and there, but will Hintz and Tufte already be knocking on the door for full-time spots in the NHL in 2019 when the other four already are at the door?
Another observation is that both Curtis McKenzie and Jamie Oleksiak seem to have disappeared from the lineup (at least the starting lineup).
The final thing that sticks out to me is that defenseman Patrik Nemeth is still on the roster. Nemeth has spent years trying to secure a starting spot in Dallas but has yet to reach that goal. As a result, he is one of the names being mentioned as part of the “cuts” the Stars will have to make before the season due to their overstocking on defense.
He is taking up a spot that could potentially be filled by defenseman Gavin Bayreuther, who the Stars signed as an undrafted free agent college player back in March. He was one of the brightest defenders in college hockey last season and is projected to be on the first pairing in Austin this year with the Texas Stars. Why wouldn’t he get his shot by that point?
This 2019-20 projection gives the Dallas Stars an extremely young lineup with little to go off of in terms of depth scoring and overall defensive structure.
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All in all, it is simply a lot to digest. There’s a lot of moving pieces for the Dallas Stars over the next two seasons, and sadly, it doesn’t look as though Campbell sees any of these pieces working in the Stars’ favor.
But that’s two years down the road. At the moment, let’s stick to the here and now and continue to focus on the potentially bright season the Dallas Stars have ahead of them. Keep that tunnel vision. We’ll get to that future stuff eventually.