Dallas Stars: Depth Scoring Must Take Priority This Offseason
The Dallas Stars offensive regression over the last two seasons can be boiled down to a lack of second-line scoring. With an important offseason coming up, the Stars should look to the free-agent market to find second-line skill players.
Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin can’t win a Stanley Cup. Take that in for a second. You may not like it, but it’s true.
Now, before you sprint up to Home Depot and buy a pitchfork—it’s the one with four prongs—hear me out.
Benn and Seguin are both fantastic players. Add Alexander Radulov to the mix, and the three form one of the more potent top lines in all of the NHL. But they can’t win a Stanley Cup by themselves.
Anatomy of a Stanley Cup Champion
In my estimation, there are three qualities that practically every Stanley Cup Champion possesses: great goaltending, at least average defense, and two-line depth scoring.
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Goaltending is the most important. It covers up a myriad of other issues, such as help the 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings win the Stanley Cup despite being 29th in the NHL in scoring. A .946 save percentage in the playoffs will do that for you.
You also need at least average defense. What is average? Well, let’s say the top 2/3 of the NHL. You’ll be hard-pressed to find any champion outside the top 20 in defense, and most of those lower-ranked teams had excellent goaltending.
And then there is depth scoring, which I define as the contribution from a team’s 5-10 scorers over the course of the season. For example, the Dallas Stars’ 5-10 scorers in 2017-18 were Mattias Janmark, Radek Faksa, Devin Shore, Tyler Pitlick, Esa Lindell, and Jason Spezza. Those players combined for 179 points in 2017-18, which ranks 12th in the Western Conference. Therein lies the problem.
A Downward Trend
Believe it or not, this is an improvement on the 2016-17 season. That year, as Lindy Ruff was valiantly making his last stand, the team accumulated 174 points from its 5-10 scorers. Despite all the guffawing about Dallas’ drop in offensive production this season, the Stars scored 12 more goals as a team than they did in 2016-17. This indicates to me that the decline in offense was more than just a philosophy switch from Ruff to Hitchcock.
In Dallas’ Central Division Championship 2015-16, the team got 224 points from its depth scorers. In just two years, depth scoring dropped by 45 points–over half a point per game.
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When comparing these numbers to the 2017-18 playoff field, the contrast becomes starker. The 16 playoff teams averaged 227.25 points from their depth scorers during the regular season, a difference of over 48 points. Blame not making the playoffs on the catastrophic late-season meltdown if you must, but the numbers show a definite Achilles heel throughout the entire season.
Since 1998-99, the Stanley Cup Champion has averaged 228.9 points from their depth scorers. (This includes the strike-shortened 2012-13 season, where I extrapolated Chicago’s 131 points throughout an 82-game season.) In fact, only two Stanley Cup winners failed to crack 200 “depth points”: the 2011-12 and 2013-14 L.A. Kings.
Jason Spezza’s offensive drop explains some of this. In the last three seasons, his point totals are 63, 50, and 25. Almost precisely a point-per-game player over the course of his career, the 34-year old averaged a point every three games this season. That’s not enough production for $7.5 million/year. Don’t be surprised if the Stars consider buying out his contract this offseason.
But the lack of depth scoring is mostly chalked up to not having the horses to put up the necessary numbers. This is frustrating since the Dallas Stars’ competent third line of Radek Faksa, Tyler Pitlick, and Antoine Roussel was weighed down with the undue burden of having to attempt to put up unrealistic offensive numbers.
Jim Montgomery may come in and work wonders, but it’ll be the front office that addresses the gap in scoring. To become a playoff threat, Dallas needs to build a stout second line.
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Potential Solutions
This brings in the salary cap. The Stars have five-to-six contributors hitting the free-agent market this offseason. In my opinion, there’s an above average chance that only one or two of these players returns next season. (I believe that Mike McKenna has earned a shot at winning the backup job next season, but I don’t get paid to make these decisions.) With approximately $17 million in cap space, as well as the upcoming issue of Tyler Seguin’s impending contract negotiations, there are a plethora of players who might be on Dallas’ radar this offseason.
Forget getting someone like John Tavares. The Dallas Stars should aim for a second-line stalwart who can bump up to first-line minutes if the situation calls for it. I believe they should also look on the younger side. Looking at 2018 free agents, a few players stick out to me.
Tyler Bozak, 32, is coming off a 43-point season and had 55 points as recently as two years ago. His salary was a middle-of-the-road $4.2 million/year in Toronto. If the Stars choose to buy out Spezza’s contract, Bozak could be a cheaper, younger option as a second-line center. He also plays on the penalty kill. If Dallas keeps him at around his current contract value at 3-4 years, I believe he’d be a worthy investment.
I love David Perron, and I’m not afraid to admit it. He just turned 30, which means he should be able to play out the life of a 4-5 year contract. He’s pretty much an even plus/minus player and put up 66 points (16 G, 50 A) this year. He made just $3.75 million in 2017-18; however, I worry he may get nearly double his current deal on the market. Dallas should stave off anything more than $4-5 million/year.
A much more affordable option will be Riley Nash. In this scenario, The Dallas Stars would be taking a gamble. Nash put up a career-high 41 points (15 G, 26 A) this year in Boston; however, before that, his previous career high was 25 points. He’s only 29 and will cost less than Bozak or Perron.
According to Joe Hagerty of NBC Sports, Nash will be looking for a deal in the $3 million/year range. I believe Dallas can take that gamble. A four year, $12-14 million contract would be a modest cap hit, while still allowing Dallas to make other moves.
Next: Stars Must Make Correct Choice On Backup Goaltender
Those are a few of the players that could make sense in the Dallas lineup, but they’re certainly not the only options. James Neal, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, and Rick Nash are also free agents.
One thing is for sure: whatever road Jim Nill and the Dallas Stars front office take this offseason, they’ll undoubtedly make depth scoring a high priority.