Dallas Stars: How Tyler Seguin Contract Talks Can Affect 2018-19 Season

The month of August is here and the Dallas Stars have yet to sign Tyler Seguin to a long-term extension. And though talks are ongoing, there is still work to do. If negotiations roll into October, what could it mean for the team’s 2018-19 campaign?

The A-Team will forever be one of my favorite action-comedy films.

The movie came out in June of 2010. At the time, I was a typical 13-year-old boy with a hankering for explosions, fighting, and dry humor. Oh, and Liam Neeson action. I hadn’t been around when the original TV show aired, so this was a chance for my dad and I both to enjoy an American classic on the big screen.

I thoroughly enjoyed the show, as you can probably guess, and have seen it more times than I can count since. But as I sit here more than eight years later, there’s one quote that still comes to mind every time I hear a mention of the film:

“I love it when a plan comes together.”

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The quote is said a handful of times and is the traditional catchphrase of A-Team leader Hannibal Smith. I don’t know why the quote has stuck with me for all of these years, but it always seems to carry significance.

The thing about this quote is it perfectly applies to the A-Team. When on screen, the group is constantly making plans for narrow escapes or extremely detailed heists. The plans seem too elaborate to even be remotely possible, and yet, they always seem to come together perfectly.

That can seem almost unfair to a certain extent for most everyday people. That’s because plans don’t seem to come together very often. Even when you feel as though you’ve perfectly mapped something out, there always seems to be a road block that completely shatters the plans. It’s a natural occurrence and seems to be part of the human condition.

It can also seem unfair to armchair GMs, specifically in regards to the Dallas Stars.

At the beginning of each offseason, the inner armchair GM in every hockey fan comes out and begins working. They concoct a “master plan” for their favorite team that includes which players to let go, which players to re-sign, which free agents to go after, and which players to trade for. And each one is convinced that their plan is the one that makes the most sense and that the team will be in the best possible shape if their plan comes together.

Many of them are deemed completely delusional after it’s all said and done, though some hold a certain amount of truth. And sometimes, there are common threads between different “master plans.”

As the 2018 offseason approached, there was one common thread between every Dallas Stars armchair GM’s list: re-sign Tyler Seguin on July 1.

That plan didn’t end up coming together. As July 1 came and went, the Stars signed a handful of free agents and parted ways with others while also waiting for a decision from John Tavares. But there was no mention of a Seguin extension, and that left fans feeling a little uneasy.

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It’s become inherently obvious over the past five seasons that Tyler Seguin is a superstar forward. Ever since the 2013-14 season, he’s been a prime catalyst in the Stars’ success. He’s a fast skater with excellent hands, possesses terrific playmaking abilities, has a cannon of a shot, can play on both the power play and penalty kill, hit the 40-goal mark last season, and showed tremendous poise as an all-around center that can play in all three zones and serve as a game changer. He also performs incredibly well alongside Jamie Benn and is turning into a valuable mentor to the young group of Stars coming in.

With that being said, he’s arguably one of the top five centers in the game right now. His talents seem endless and at the current age of 26, he’s got a lot of hockey left to play.

And that’s why July 1, 2018 was such a big day for Seguin and the Dallas Stars organization. It was the first day that he could sign an extension with the team and kicked off the final year of his current contract that pays him $5.75 million per season. His extension is expected to be at least seven years long and carry a minimum AAV of $9.5 million.

But no extension was signed on day one. Considering that was the plan for many Stars armchair GMs, it came with some question, though the actual Dallas Stars GM was prepared for it.

“I hope by July 1 we are going to know where it’s at,” Nill said on the Stars’ exit interview day back in April. “If something doesn’t happen July 1, I don’t want any panic out there. I’m banking on getting something done. I’m pretty confident that we will get something done.”

But here we are in the month of August with Tyler Seguin still looking for an extension. The plan has not yet come together, and that’s a scary thought for some.

That doesn’t mean that all hope is lost, though. In the past few days, reports have surfaced that talks are picking up between the Stars and Seguin. More than two months still separate the Dallas Stars from their opening night contest against the Arizona Coyotes, so there is plenty of time left to get a deal done. And though one hasn’t been reached just yet, it’s clear that the proper steps are being taken. And as talks seem to intensify, the prospect of a new deal in the near future becomes much more hopeful.

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There is, however, always the chance that a deal doesn’t get done before the start of the season. Tyler Seguin has earned a significant pay raise through his play. He’s proved his longevity and his skills speak for themselves. With that being said, he has earned the right to not only expect a substantially large raise in salary and term, but also to see what is on the market.

And to be honest, the Stars don’t have much to stand on over the past few years. The team has qualified for the playoffs in just one of the past four seasons. Though it always looks like the pieces are there, something ends up going wrong. That’s not easy for an elite player entering his prime to digest, especially when he already knows what it’s like to win a Stanley Cup.

Dallas continues to forge ahead, though, making moves in hopes of returning to the postseason soon in a jam-packed Western Conference.

It’s clear that Seguin enjoys reaching out and lending a hand in the community and even called Dallas “home” on exit interview day. But there is still no certainty as to whether it will be his home one year from now, regardless of how well talks are currently going.

So, if the team cannot come to terms with no. 91 before October 4 and he decides to hold out and see where the team goes, what does that mean for the 2018-19 season?

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Well, it obviously means quite a bit. The 2018-19 season will consequently be put under a powerful microscope, and each win or loss could mean a lot in regards to Seguin’s future.

First and foremost, there will be a lot of pressure on the team. Success is a key in attracting followers, and Seguin is no different. If the Dallas Stars can get back into the postseason and make a decent run while brightening their future, that could be a major key in convincing Seguin to stick around. But if the Stars once again hit a bump and miss the playoffs, that might be a sign for him to leave while he can.

The lack of an extension before the season starts could also put a sizable amount of pressure on Jim Montgomery. As the new head coach, it will be up to Montgomery to not only get the team up and running quickly, but also to foster to each player in an attempt to access each one’s maximum potential.

Ken Hitchcock did an outstanding job at accessing Seguin’s potential and helping him turn in a career year in 2017-18. He became a reliable defender and penalty killer in addition to maximizing his offensive output. Montgomery will be charged with doing the same. But if Seguin cannot find a good fit in the new system, it might cause some doubt. The Stars sound as though they believe in Montgomery and are ready to commit to him for the future. That could be an issue if Seguin’s production stalls this year.

And though it may not seem like it, there will be a certain level of pressure on Tyler Seguin. If he doesn’t agree on a new deal by the time the season begins, the pressure increases for him to turn in another solid year. After an incredible 2017-18 showing, Seguin’s value is currently peaking. But if he falters in 2018-19, that value could dip. On the flip side, if he turns in another career year, he could skyrocket his value all the more.

There’s pressure on Seguin to be the best player he can be. If he succeeds in doing so, the Dallas Stars might be inclined to raise their offer and an extensive group of suitors would likely appear as the 2019 offseason rolls in.

Tyler Seguin has earned the right to play out his pending free agent status as he pleases. His all-around play makes him a lethal asset to any team. In addition, the Dallas Stars haven’t given him enduring and lasting success. That could definitely come into play as the season goes on.

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This is a delicate game that Seguin and the Stars are playing. The plan on everyone’s mind was to have him signed by July 1. But Nill had accepted the chance of that not happening long before the day arrived. Instead, he prepared for consistent negotiations and kept things relatively quiet as the  high point of the offseason approached.

There’s no doubting that a certain cloud will hang over the Dallas Stars in the 2018-19 season if Seguin doesn’t sign before game one. It will be a cloud that the team isn’t necessarily used to, but one that will be demanding nonetheless. Many teams go through this same situation (the New York Islanders spent all of last season trying to sign superstar John Tavares before he signed with Toronto on July 1 as a UFA). It’s a game that requires focus and attention to detail.

So, as August gets underway and talks continue between the two sides, there’s not much else you can do besides sit and wait (unless you enjoy constantly refreshing Twitter).

The plan didn’t necessarily come together on day one (or month one, for that matter), but that’s okay. There’s no sign of panic from either side so far, and that in and of itself shows a certain level of security.

These next two months could do a lot for Tyler Seguin and his future with the Dallas Stars. Then again, they might not. And if they don’t, the 2018-19 season becomes the most important year yet for Jim Nill and his group. Seguin is a rare gem that could be a key cog in the success of the Stars’ franchise for years to come. The Stars know that and will likely do whatever it takes to get the center re-signed. When that will happen has yet to be determined, though.

But if it does, feel free to exclaim, “I love it when a plan comes together.”