Dallas Stars: Potential Trade Pieces To Use At 2019 NHL Trade Deadline
The 2019 NHL Trade Deadline is one week away, and the Dallas Stars could end up being a key player. But if GM Jim Nill is searching for a big addition, which assets from within the organization might he be willing to offer up in return?
The next eight days will help define the 2018-19 Dallas Stars in one way or another. Whether that’s for better or for worse and to what extent it defines the team is unclear right now, but we can be assured that it will play a part.
That’s what the NHL Trade Deadline does for teams: it helps in defining them. It’s a time of year where playoff challengers look to get better in the present and bottom-tier teams look to sell in an effort to build for the future. It’s properly positioned in the regular season schedule so teams have as much time as possible to determine their potential end-of-season path.
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But the process itself can be incredibly complicated. It doesn’t take place during a set timeframe, there aren’t a designated number or list of buyers and sellers, and every team can approach it in a different way. The NHL Trade Deadline brings plenty of speculation, assumption, and even a bit of confusion at times. It all depends on how a team attacks it (or if they attack it at all).
And that’s where the Stars currently find themselves. To make a deal or not to make a deal? If we look to the past for help, it seems obvious that Dallas has to make a move.
After all, Feb. 26, 2018 went down in the history books as one of the more conflicting days in franchise history. On that day, Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill allowed the 2018 NHL Trade Deadline to pass without making a move. The Stars had been on a recent hot stretch, but still had a few holes in their lineup that could have used filling.
Instead of going out and making a deal, Nill stepped back and reinvested his trust in the lineup that Dallas had rolled with through the first half of the season.
The Stars repaid his trust with a 7-9-4 finish to the season that included a devastating 0-6-2 stretch throughout the month of March. Ben Bishop hit the injured reserve list early in the month, the Dallas offense continued to get colder and more one-dimensional down the stretch, and Nill’s plans fell through as the Stars were removed from the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoff picture when it mattered most.
This year, the Dallas Stars find themselves in a dangerously similar position. Dallas built a hot streak to start the month, but has since seen their flaws exposed in a 1-3-1 showing during their recent road trip. Bishop has missed the past two weeks of action. And sitting at the center of it all in a prominent light is the Stars’ continuous lack of quality depth scoring.
Their bottom-nine forwards are not getting the puck in the back of the net as often as they need to be, which leaves their “big guns” (Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov) in charge of generating the majority of the offensive pressure. Playoff-caliber teams boast well-roundedness in their offensive attack and have various lines that can score on a nightly basis.
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Blue Line Station
The Dallas Stars need that. Their offense sits 29th in the NHL with an average of 2.50 goals for per game. No other team currently sitting in a playoff position has a goals for average below 2.76. In the past two games, the Stars’ lack of offensive pressure became painfully obvious as they were outscored by a combined score of 9-0 at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes.
And considering that winning in the postseason requires goal support, Dallas needs to add some firepower to their lineup. Nill has acknowledged on various occasions that he would like to add more scoring to the Dallas offense and is constantly scanning the market for trade opportunities.
That begins with the second line. While the first, third, and fourth lines have serviceable troops at the moment, the second line is where they fall short. So, Nill could really benefit from picking up another scorer for the top six.
But, for every midseason addition that is sought after, there must be a return. It’s a fact of the deadline that is often overlooked by fans eager to simply bring in talent and see their team improve for the homestretch.
That doesn’t change the fact that a return must be completed. And with the Stars’ current situation, it could end up being a bit trickier than you expect.
Dallas is close to the cap wall, so a roster player will almost certainly have to be sent back if Dallas is trading for an impact player. And, depending on an incoming player’s salary, multiple players may have to be moved. It’s all a part of the intricate process.
And if the Stars target a player, what style of player might his team want in return? How deep will Dallas have to go in their talent pool to create a viable deal? Though you might not want to hear it, the Stars will likely have to go deeper than you might initially hope or assume.
There’s a lot of moving parts in every trade, and Nill has his hands full with plenty of options. As a result, there’s not really any point in trying to project exact trades. Instead, we can look at which players the Dallas Stars might target that could make them markedly better as well as which organizational pieces they might be willing to offer up in exchange.
We took a look at some potential and realistic targets last Monday. But this week, let’s flip the coin and try to figure out which pieces the Stars might be willing to use as trade chips in the upcoming week in order to gain a valuable asset that can help turn the team into an assured playoff contender.
This is nothing more informed speculation at this point, but could end up having some truth behind it over the next eight days. Let’s take a look.
The Prospects And Draft Picks
Drafting quality NHL talent has become a bit of an issue for the Dallas Stars over the past few seasons.
From mistimed selections in the first round to a lack of homegrown players currently making a sizable impact in the NHL (minus Miro Heiskanen), the draft issues cast a nasty cloud over a franchise that has missed the playoffs in eight of the past ten seasons.
As a result, draft picks and prospects become an interesting discussion topic when linked to trade talk.
Let’s begin by discussing draft picks.
Picks are almost always included in any deadline deal nowadays. They are often used as sweeteners when trying to pull off a big deal, but can also be the center of a trade at times (i.e. a first-round pick for a rebuilding franchise).
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Pucks and Pitchforks
Nill is used to trading picks. A few weeks ago, he sent a fourth-round pick to Pittsburgh in exchange for Jamie Oleksiak. Earlier this season, he sent a 2019 seventh-round pick to Toronto for Connor Carrick and a 2020 seventh-round pick to Buffalo for Taylor Fedun.
In 2016 (the last time that the Dallas Stars were “buyers” at a trade deadline), he packaged a conditional second-round pick along with a handful of players to send to Calgary in exchange for Kris Russell.
Nill has a history of being open to dealing picks, whether they are the central or secondary part of the trade. Most deadline deals involve picks serving as sweeteners, so Nill might be adept to package one or two in a deal for an impact player.
Now, there is a tag with this: Nill has yet to trade a first-round pick in his time as GM. Trading a first-round pick isn’t an incredibly common move in the NHL and usually only happens during a blockbuster deal. With Nill’s reserve towards building for the future, the first rounders will likely be off limits (unless a player like Artemi Panarin is involved).
That leaves the Stars with five picks in 2019 (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th) and four picks in 2020 (3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th) to use as enticers in any potential deal.
When it comes to the prospect pool, however, the Dallas Stars will likely need to be somewhat generous. Any deadline trade for a serious impact player typically involves at least one high-ranked prospect in return, so the Stars might have to cough up a potential piece of their future, depending on the deal.
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It seems as though most of the Dallas farm system could be on the block. There are reports that the Stars do not want to trade Ty Dellandrea, their 2018 first-round pick, as he continues a strong development course in the OHL.
That leaves names like Jason Robertson up for grabs. In addition, Roope Hintz and Denis Gurianov might be included as well after showing spurts of promise at the NHL level this season. And depending on the deal, they may be players that the Stars have to part with.
The draft picks and prospect pools could play an influential role both in how Nill crafts certain offers or how opposing teams may build their own counteroffers.
The Secondary Pieces
Just above the draft picks and farm prospects sits the “secondary pieces.”
In other words, these are current NHL players that could find themselves as part of a deal for a valuable acquisition. While they could hold a certain level of value in the acquiring team’s eyes, they likely wouldn’t be enough by themselves to complete the deal. A pick, prospect, and/or “primary piece” would likely need to be included for the opposing team to take a secondary piece in.
And that’s what the Dallas Stars seem to have a surplus of right now. Both on offense and defense, the Stars have a handful of players that have not been able to cement themselves in the lineup. Inconsistent play or an inability to score/contribute have caused these secondary pieces to shift to the back of the lineup as they struggle to establish themselves as NHL starters. Maybe this is the first year of their struggle, or maybe it’s been happening for a few years.
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Causeway Crowd
Regardless of the situation, the Stars have a handful of secondary pieces on their current roster that could be sent out in a package deal. Let’s look at a few of them.
Brett Ritchie
Just two seasons ago, Brett Ritchie posted a 16-goal, 24-point performance in a 78-game campaign. In his first full season at the NHL level, the 2011 second-round pick had shown immense value as a net-front presence both at even strength and on the power play and used his size to his advantage as he created a spot for himself in the NHL lineup.
But in the past two seasons combined, he has 11 goals and 20 points in 106 starts. The quick drop in production has raised some eyebrows within the organization as Ritchie now struggles to keep himself in the lineup.
The problems have become incredibly prevalent through the first half of the 2018-19 season. Ritchie has started in just 35 of the team’s 58 games this season and has spent many games serving as the healthy scratch. When in the lineup, he’s skating less than 10 minutes a game and is averaging the lowest shot totals of his career.
He’s not scoring, his spot in the lineup has come into question, and he continues to struggle with keeping his production consistent.
As a result, it might be time for Ritchie to get a fresh start. He’s 25 years old, owns a cap hit of $1.75 million, and will be an RFA this offseason. That could be enticing for a seller looking to add a young, big body to their offense and power play.
He likely wouldn’t be the central part in a big deal (considering his struggles), but he could very well be included in a deal if the Stars need to add a secondary piece when trying to land a big piece.
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Mile High Sticking
Valeri Nichushkin
Things are getting progressively worse for the 23-year-old Russian winger as the 2018-19 season wears on.
Once seen as a potential solution to the Dallas Stars’ depth scoring woes when he was signed in the 2018 offseason, Nichushkin has quickly become a central part of the depth forward problem.
Through 41 starts, Nichushkin has yet to score a goal and only has seven assists in his first season back in the NHL. He’s the only Dallas forward without a goal that has played in at least seven games this season. And, besides a handful of nifty assists, he’s been nonexistent in the offensive zone.
His possession numbers are down, his ice time continues to diminish, and he’s only played in four of the Stars’ last 11 contests. Nichushkin is quickly becoming the go-to healthy scratch on the Dallas roster and cannot seem to find a goal, no matter the situation he is put in.
“He needs to look the same as other people do. We consistently have to be penetrating the middle of the ice inside the dots and we need to be stopping at nets and have balance and have a triangle in the offensive zone with our forwards. He needs to understand that he’s going to score goals from the hashmarks to the goal line and the blue paint. That’s where he needs to be in order to have success.” – Jim Montgomery on Nichushkin’s struggles, 2/1
That hurts for a Dallas Stars team that invested in Nichushkin for two years with an AAV of $2.95 million. There are seven forwards currently on the Dallas roster being paid less than Nichushkin, and all but one of them (being Joel L’Esperance, who made his NHL debut on Saturday) have more goals than no. 43.
This could very well prompt a trade. Nichushkin showed in his first few seasons at the NHL level that he can be a viable depth forward option and has the “first-round pick” tag sticking to him.
Like Ritchie, he likely won’t be the main piece in a big trade. After all, other teams have access to his stats and performances. But there’s a chance that a young, rebuilding team takes Nichushkin and a few other pieces on in exchange for an experienced scorer.
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Julius Honka
Falling under a similar category of “first round pick that has yet to pan out,” Julius Honka hasn’t played in a game in over a month. He last suited up for the Dallas Stars on Jan. 15 in a 2-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning at the American Airlines Center. That seems like a lifetime ago.
It’s been another season of frustration surrounding Honka. After Ken Hitchcock rarely used the seemingly budding rookie defender in the 2017-18 season, Honka seemed poised to have a breakout year under new head coach Jim Montgomery in 2018-19.
That hasn’t happened. Honka was scratched from the opening night lineup in favor of Connor Carrick, who had been acquired from Toronto just a few days before.
He’s been in and out of the lineup ever since, never playing more than 4-5 games at a time before he’s back on the healthy scratch list and sitting in the press box.
“I don’t think he’s tentative. He’s not processing the way we want to play quick enough and that’s why he looks tentative but he’s not. He’s a very aggressive kid.” – Montgomery on Honka, 11/23
As a former first-round pick, the potential is still there for Honka to be an impact player and cornerstone defenseman for an NHL franchise going forward. He’s only 23 years old and could be in need of nothing more than a fresh start. But with the way things have gone in Dallas over the past two seasons, it doesn’t seem like he has any sort of future in Victory Green.
He’ll be an RFA in the 2019 summer and could be a potentially valuable asset to a team needing young players with promise. Of all of the players on this secondary piece list, Honka has the best chance of becoming a primary piece; it all simply depends on the team involved in negotiations.
One analyst suggested the Dallas Stars could trade Honka to the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for forward Gustav Nyquist. With Detroit in the midst of a rebuild and in need of bright young defenders, Honka could quickly become a cornerstone in Motown while the Stars would get a scoring forward to help them push into contention.
One thing is for sure, though: Honka isn’t doing the Stars any good sitting in the press box every night.
Now that we’ve covered some of the realistic secondary pieces, let’s wrap it up by looking at some potential primary pieces.
The Primary Pieces
While any Dallas Stars fan would be happy with trading any of the previously mentioned assets for a Matt Duchene or Mats Zuccarello, a deal like that probably wouldn’t end up panning out.
For the Dallas Stars to reel in a true impact player that can have a sizable enough impact to push this team over the “potential challenger” hump and into “assured contender,” they will likely have to part with a more noteworthy piece of their current lineup. Whether that’s to relieve salary or to sell the deal overall is uncertain, but it’s something that the Stars may be forced to do.
And while players like Benn, Seguin, Radulov, Spezza, and Bishop own non-movement clauses in their contracts, here are a handful of primary trade pieces that Dallas might consider dealing when going for a significant return.
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Mattias Janmark
On March 1, 2015, the Dallas Stars acquired Mattias Janmark, Mattias Backman, and a second-round pick from the Detroit Red Wings in exchange for veteran forward Erik Cole and a third-round pick.
Seven months later, Janmark made his NHL debut with the Dallas Stars on opening night. He ended up scoring his first NHL goal during his first NHL shift in his first NHL game. Since then, his story has been incredibly entertaining to follow. From a 15-goal, 29-point rookie campaign in 2015-16, to missing the entire 2016-17 season while rehabbing from a rare knee injury, to bouncing back and posting career numbers in 2017-18, it’s been impressive watching the 26-year-old develop and overcome obstacles.
But so far in 2018-19, he doesn’t look like the same Janmark. While he still has the speed and creativity that he’s known for, he only has five goals and 19 points through 58 starts. He’s on pace for career-lows in both categories, and that’s with a projected 82-game year under his belt.
Janmark has been juggled around the lineup by Montgomery in an effort to maximize his scoring potential, but it just hasn’t worked. That’s become a problem, considering Janmark was the Stars’ most consistent depth scorer in 2017-18 with 19 goals.
The thing about Janmark, though, is that he still owns impressive potential. He’s proven that he can play a second line role, skate valuable minutes, and put the puck in the back of the net while also creating offensive chances with his vision and speed.
That’s enticing for any NHL team, especially when considering that Janmark is only 26, will be an RFA this summer, can play both center and on the wing, and has not been hindered by his knee surgery in any visible way.
If the Dallas Stars have to dish a relatively sizable piece of their lineup as part of a deal for a big impact forward, Janmark might be included in talks.
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Radek Faksa
While this one doesn’t seem as probable or viable, the Dallas Stars might be forced to at least look at the option.
Since making his NHL debut in the 2015-16 season, Radek Faksa has been one of the household names in the Dallas forward corps. He’s spent much of his time filling the third line center role and has found a way to thrive and provide a consistent impact.
His value lies primarily in his defensive and penalty killing efforts as Faksa has become one of the most notable and talented defensive centers in the NHL. He finished seventh in Selke Trophy (awarded to the league’s top defensive forward) voting last season and has continued to build his strengths around being a capable and reliable back-checker that can win face-offs in the defensive zone and jumpstart the Dallas offense.
And that’s why he could end up being such a coveted piece at the deadline. A solid and consistent third-line center is rather valuable in today’s NHL, and the Stars have their golden goose with Faksa. He’s got nine goals and 20 points through 58 games this year and continues to show strides in his development.
If the Dallas Stars are trying to sway a hefty piece away from a potential trade partner, they might view Faksa as a potential part of the return price. Trading Faksa has the potential to be a serious mistake, so a deal including no. 12 would need to be seriously debated by Nill and would likely have to include a major return piece in order to be processed. After all, Faksa carries impressive value.
Still, it’s not unlikely that Faksa’s name wouldn’t potentially be included in certain trade offers from opposing clubs.
The 2019 NHL Trade Deadline is scheduled for Feb. 25 at 2 p.m. CT. As a result, this next week will offer plenty of speculation and estimation across the NHL as teams prepare for the final push to the playoffs.
Standing at the center of it all is a Dallas Stars team in need of a late-season spark in the lineup. If Nill can get aggressive and make a play for some of the forwards that have been rumored as available, the Stars might find themselves deep in trade talks over the next few days (if they aren’t already). And if they do, the assets listed above could very well be part of the conversation.
But until a trade is announced and official, it’s nothing more than educated guessing.
dark. Next. Who Should The Stars Target At 2019 Trade Deadline?
And that’s just part of the NHL Trade Deadline fun. Anything can happen, and that’s exactly how hockey fans like it.