Dallas Stars Playoff Push: Examining Potential First Round Opponents

Only one point separates the Dallas Stars from securing a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. And though they are on the brink of clinching, their opponent in the opening round is still far from being determined.

One point. That’s all that stands between the Dallas Stars and securing a berth in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. And with three games left in the regular season, all the Stars must do to qualify is pick up one point or hope that Arizona doesn’t win out.

Those are highly favorable odds (99.8 percent, to be exact) to own at this point in the year, and deservedly so. It’s been an uphill journey for Dallas this season, but they have found a way to persevere and keep themselves in the fight.

Through 79 games this season, the Dallas Stars sit at a mark of 41-31-7 with 89 points. That’s currently good enough for the top wild card spot in the Western Conference, a post that the Stars have occupied for the majority of the past month.

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It’s been a long road to get here. From a new coaching staff, to new players and systems, to various injuries that have affected key players at different points throughout the year, it’s been a consistent grind for the Dallas Stars.

And yet, here they sit just one point away from securing a playoff spot. If (because you can’t take probable as fact in the NHL) they do end up clinching, it will be their first playoff berth since the 2015-16 season when they won both the Central division and Western Conference regular season titles. Patrick Sharp was a key cog on the top line, Jason Spezza scored 33 goals, Alex Goligoski posted a career-high +21 rating, and the duo of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi combined for 50 wins as the Stars racked up 109 points in the regular season. In other words, it’s been a while.

But this is a new team and a new season. This Stars team boasts different strengths and a new mindset that has helped it to its current position in the playoff race. And now, all they need is one.

So, assuming that that one point is either gained by Dallas or lost by Arizona over the next five days, the Stars will participate in playoff hockey starting next Tuesday. But who will they start their road to the Cup against? It looks as though the answer to that question is long from being settled.

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A handful of first round matchups have been determined over the past few days in the NHL. For instance, it’s confirmed that the San Jose Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights will duke it out in round one. A Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins matchup in round one is also a near lock.

On top of that, the Tampa Bay Lightning claimed the top seed in the Eastern Conference while the Calgary Flames clinched the top spot in the Western Conference. Each of those teams will take on the final wild card team in their conference in the opening round.

But when you look at the Central division, there’s a lot of potential juggling left to be done.

The top three spots in the Central are currently owned by the Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, and St. Louis Blues. All three teams sit within two points of each other, though, and have 3-4 games left in their season to either surge ahead or slip behind. With home ice and even a division title at stake, all three are fighting to get as high in the ranks as possible by the time game 82 passes.

The results of that race will likely affect the Stars in a significant way because they will help determine which team Dallas faces in the first round of the postseason.

Here’s how the current standings look.

CENTRAL

1. Winnipeg Jets 78 GP 94 PTS 43 ROW

2. Nashville Predators 79 GP 94 PTS 40 ROW

3. St. Louis Blues 78 GP 92 PTS 41 ROW

WC1. Dallas Stars 79 GP 89 PTS 40 ROW

WC2. Colorado Avalanche 78 GP 85 PTS 34 ROW

It’s all knotted up with only one week to go. And as of right now, here’s what we know:

• The Stars won’t be finishing in first or second place in the division. That would not only require that they win out in the final three games of the year, but also that Winnipeg lose out, Nashville gain no more than one point, and St. Louis gain no more than three points for the rest of the season. The first part could potentially happen, but with the way the top three teams have been playing over the past month, don’t expect the latter half to happen.
• There’s still a chance that the Dallas Stars could sneak into third place. It would require a fair amount of losing from the Blues, but it could happen. Still, their odds of finishing in the wild card picture are much heavier.
• The Colorado Avalanche are still a team that the Stars must keep an eye on. If the Avs defeat the Blues on Monday night, they will be two points back of Dallas with three games to go. The second wild card team will take on the Calgary Flames in round one. That could still be the Stars or Avalanche, though the odds heavily favor Colorado heading for the Pacific bracket.

And so, who will the Stars play in the opening round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs? There’s four possibilities, with three of them currently carrying a decent chance of being the Stars’ first round challenger (there’s only an eight percent chance that Dallas meets up with Calgary in round one, according to The Athletic).

So, with only nine days separating the NHL from the beginning of the postseason, let’s take a quick look at the Dallas Stars’ three potential opening round opponents.

1. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 45-29-4, 94 points, 43 ROW

Chances of playing Stars in first round (according to The Athletic): 46 percent

Coming in as the Stars’ most likely opponent in the first round is the Winnipeg Jets, and rightly so.

If the Stanley Cup Playoffs started today, Dallas and Winnipeg would be pitted against each other. That would more than likely make for an opening series filled with plenty of energy between two teams that are still relatively new to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Jets White Out

Since the league realigned in the summer of 2013, the Dallas Stars have only been to the Stanley Cup Playoffs twice; the Jets are in the same boat. And when you consider the recent pasts of each club, the storylines would be enticing to say the least. The Stars being back for the first time since 2016 and looking to make a name for themselves while the Jets trying to go one step further after being eliminated in the conference finals in 2018? Sign us up.

The regular season series between the two teams seems to lean in favor of the Stars, with Dallas posting a record of 3-1-0. That included outscoring the Jets 15-10 and picking up some critical points within the division that helped them stay afloat. But the playoffs are a different animal entirely, so using the regular season as a comparison isn’t always the most reliable idea.

While the odds seem to heavily favor a Dallas-Winnipeg matchup (it’s been this way for the past two weeks or so), there’s a lot of room left for things to change. The Jets are currently tied for first place in the Central with the Nashville Predators, and the final week of the season will serve as the deciding factor.

Winnipeg’s path to the top seed in the division includes a four-game road trip to close out the season. The Jets will make stops in Chicago, Minnesota, Colorado, and Arizona. All four of those teams are still in the playoff hunt as of Monday morning, so each one will likely be digging in and scrapping for every point left on the table. That could make things difficult on a Winnipeg team that’s just 20-17-0 on the road this year.

But if Winnipeg finds a way to keep their hold on first place and the Stars finish in the top wild card spot, this could be a thrilling series between a preseason Cup favorite and a team that is heating up at the right time of the year by using a stifling and challenging style of hockey.

We’ll see if the Jets and Stars can hold their positioning.

2. Nashville Predators

Record: 44-29-6, 94 points, 40 ROW

Chances of playing the Stars in first round (according to The Athletic): 33 percent

On Jan. 1, 2020, the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators will square off at the Cotton Bowl in the first-ever Winter Classic in the south. It’s a game that’s expected to be filled with flair and showcase one of the NHL’s budding rivalries.

And if the two teams can get a playoff series in before the big game to further spark the hatred and bad blood, so be it.

Predlines

The Stars and Predators put together one of the more thrilling regular season series during the 2018-19 campaign. The series actually ended in a tie, with both Dallas (2-1-2) and Nashville (3-2-0) picking up six points for their efforts. But the record only gives a small glimpse into just how exciting the series was.

It all started on Nov. 10 in Dallas with the Stars dropping a 5-4 overtime loss to the Predators. Nashville had mounted a late comeback to tie the game against a battered Dallas defense that was running on a skeleton crew (Joel Hanley, Ben Gleason, and Dillon Heatherington were all in the lineup).

Fast forward six weeks to Dec. 27 and the two clubs were in Nashville to kick off post-Christmas play against each other. Anton Khudobin etched his name all over the history books in that game, posting a 49-save shutout while Tyler Pitlick and Mattias Janmark scored to secure the 2-0 victory.

Feb. 2 offered much of the same stuff as the Dallas Stars were back in Nashville for a third bout. The Stars picked up a 3-1 victory that included a late rally and a fantastic 38/39 performance by Khudobin. The two teams once again met up at Bridgestone Arena just six days later, with the Predators claiming a 3-2 overtime win. The season series ended on Feb. 19 in Dallas with a 5-3 win by Nashville.

In each of those exciting games, there was a storyline to follow. There were different heroes, plenty of energy, and all the makings of a potential rivalry.

That’s what makes a playoff series so much more enticing. The Predators and Stars could potentially dominate the viewership of the opening round and create a series that would be must-see TV.

It’s two solid defensive clubs with confident veteran goaltenders and a desire to further prove themselves as a live and legitimate non-traditional hockey market.

But, unlike the Jets, this would be a much more playoff-hardened opponent for the Stars. Nashville has qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the past four seasons and has been to the Stanley Cup Final once.

The Predators only have three games remaining on their regular season schedule, giving the Jets the upper hand in terms of potential points gained. But with a visit to Buffalo being followed by a two-game homestand against Vancouver and Chicago, it looks like a relatively easy path to the finish line for the Predators.

One thing is sure, though: Dallas against Nashville would be quite the sight to see.